Zohran Mamdani: 28% on Oct 20, 30% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 30% | ▲ 2 | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 917.6K |
| Mark Carney | 16% | ▲ 3 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 41.3K |
| Pope Leo XIV | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 186.3K | |
| Donald Trump | 9% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 173.8K |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 9% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 17.0K |
| Dario Amodei | 8% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 26.8K |
| AI | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 183.6K | |
| James Talarico | 7% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 10.6K |
| Elon Musk | 6% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 48.5K |
| Sam Altman | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 27.0K | |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 6% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.8K |
| Reid Wiseman | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 10.9K | |
| Victor Glover | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 4.6K | |
| Christina Koch | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.1K | |
| Marco Rubio | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 6.2K | |
| ChatGPT | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 18.7K |
| Bad Bunny | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 79.0K | |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.0K | |
| Jeremy Hansen | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.4K |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.6K | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 18.4K | |
| Xi Jinping | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 7.5K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.5K |
| Alysa Liu | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 5.6K | |
| Péter Magyar | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 2.4K | |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 14.1K | |
| Bernie Sanders | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 14.2K | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.6K | |
| James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 1.5K | |
| Taylor Swift | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 34.0K | |
| Jerome Powell | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 19.1K | |
| Steve Witkoff | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Christopher Nolan | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 19.00 | |
| Pete Hegseth | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.1K | |
| Chris Wright | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | ||
| Hakeem Jeffries | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 626 | ||
| JD Vance | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 797 | ||
| Andy Burnham | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | |||
| Susie Wiles | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 528 | ||
| Erika Kirk | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 479 | ||
| Jared Kushner | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 500 | ||
| Kevin Warsh | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 5.0K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
TIME Person of the Year 2026 Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.