TIME's Person of the Year 2026

Crypto.com Culture Closed, awaiting its result Closed today 3:13 AM ET · $314 today · $314 traded

The last odds before it closed

26%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani26%
  • Pope Leo XIV14%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf11%
  • Dario Amodei6%
  • Donald Trump6%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu5%
  • Sam Altman5%
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Elon Musk4%
  • Reid Wiseman4%
  • Marco Rubio4%
  • James Talarico4%
8 more
  • Christina Koch4%
  • Jeremy Hansen3%
  • Bad Bunny3%
  • Alysa Liu2%
  • Shehbaz Sharif2%
  • Peter Magyar1%
  • Taylor Swift1%
  • Jerome Powell1%

How the odds have moved

Zohran Mamdani: 27% on Oct 20, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Crypto.com. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Zohran Mamdani 26% 26¢ 28¢ $3.57 35.00
Pope Leo XIV 14% 14¢ 16¢ $6.25 171
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 11% 1¢ 15¢ $6.67
Dario Amodei 6% 6¢ 8¢ $12.50
Donald Trump 6% 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 15.00
Benjamin Netanyahu 5% 5¢ 9¢ $11.11
Sam Altman 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67
Victor Glover 5% 5¢ 6¢ $16.67
Elon Musk 4% 4¢ 8¢ $12.50 11.00
Reid Wiseman 4% 3¢ 8¢ $12.50
Marco Rubio 4% 4¢ 5¢ $20.00
James Talarico 4% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 5.00
Christina Koch 4% 3¢ 7¢ $14.29
Jeremy Hansen 3% 2¢ 6¢ $16.67
Bad Bunny 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.00
Alysa Liu 2% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Shehbaz Sharif 2% 1¢ 4¢ $25.00
Peter Magyar 1% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33
Taylor Swift 1% 4¢ $25.00 75.00
Jerome Powell 1% 3¢ $33.33 2.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

27%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani27%▼ 2
  • Pope Leo XIV14%
  • Mark Carney13%
  • Donald Trump8%
38 more
  • Dario Amodei8%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu8%
  • Elon Musk7%▲ 1
  • AI7%
  • Reid Wiseman6%
  • James Talarico6%
  • Sam Altman6%
  • Abdul El-Sayed6%
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Christina Koch5%
  • Jeremy Hansen5%
  • Marco Rubio5%▲ 1
  • Bad Bunny4%▼ 1
  • Shehbaz Sharif4%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
  • Mojtaba Khamenei4%
  • Xi Jinping4%
  • ChatGPT3%
  • Alysa Liu3%▼ 1
  • Péter Magyar3%
  • Lionel Messi3%
  • Bernie Sanders3%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
  • Jon Ossoff3%
  • James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast3%
  • Taylor Swift2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Steve Witkoff2%
  • Christopher Nolan2%
  • Chris Wright2%
  • Hakeem Jeffries1%
  • JD Vance1%
  • Andy Burnham1%
  • Susie Wiles1%
  • Pete Hegseth1%
  • Erika Kirk1%
  • Jared Kushner1%
  • Kevin Warsh1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $866 today · $315K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Polymarket

TIME Person of the Year 2026

24%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani24%▼ 5
  • Mark Carney16%▲ 2
  • Pope Leo XIV16%▲ 1
  • Benjamin Netanyahu7%▼ 1
24 more
  • Artificial Intelligence7%▲ 1
  • Donald Trump7%
  • Dario Amodei6%
  • Marco Rubio6%
  • Elon Musk6%
  • Sam Altman6%
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Reid Wiseman5%
  • Jeremy Hansen5%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf4%
  • Christina Koch4%
  • Mojtaba Khamenei4%▲ 1
  • Bad Bunny4%▼ 1
  • James Talarico4%
  • Shehbaz Sharif3%
  • Péter Magyar3%
  • Taylor Swift3%▲ 1
  • ChatGPT3%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2%
  • Alysa Liu2%▼ 1
  • Ali Khamenei2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Ali G1%
  • Bernie Sanders1%
PolymarketCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $4.5K today · $143K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: TIME's Person, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All culture ›
Culture › Movies & box office

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

89%Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day89%▼ 6
  • Avengers: Doomsday10%▲ 6
  • Dune: Messiah<1%
11 more
  • Wicked: For Good<1%
  • Wuthering Heights<1%
  • Scream 7<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu<1%
  • Toy Story 5<1%
  • The Odyssey<1%
  • The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping<1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • The Super Mario Galaxy Movie<1%
  • Jumanji 3<1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.