Predictions › Culture odds Every Movies & box office market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
% US Dec
763 open markets · $926K traded today Trending movies & box office markets
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 95% Avengers: Doomsday 4% Dune: Messiah <1% Wicked: For Good <1% 10 more Wuthering Heights <1% Scream 7 <1% Michael <1% Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu <1% Toy Story 5 <1% The Odyssey <1% The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% Project Hail Mary <1% The Super Mario Galaxy Movie <1% Jumanji 3 <1%
Avengers: Doomsday 56% ▼ 1 Spider-Man: Brand New Day 41% ▼ 4 The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% Dune: Messiah <1%
No Bond chosen 36% ▼ 1 Jack Lowden 25% ▼ 2 Callum Turner 17% ▼ 1 Jack Barton 6% ▲ 1 20 more Josh O'Connor 5% ▲ 2 Jacob Elordi 4% Tom Francis 3% ▲ 2 Jack O'Connell 2% Paul Mescal 2% ▲ 1 Tom Hardy 1% Harris Dickinson 1% Henry Cavill <1% Aaron Taylor-Johnson <1% Richard Madden <1% James Norton <1% Theo James <1% Tom Holland <1% Timothee Chalamet <1% Pierce Brosnan <1% Robert James-Collier <1% Michael B Jordan <1% Nicholas Galitzine <1% Jonathan Bailey <1% Tom Blyth <1%
Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? 95% Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? 92% Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? 90% ▲ 2 Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? 89% 15 more Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? 78% ▲ 1 Benedict Wong as Wong? 78% ▲ 1 Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? 78% ▼ 1 Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? 76% ▲ 3 Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? 74% ▼ 1 Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts? 60% ▲ 1 Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez? 54% Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? 54% ▲ 1 Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? 51% ▼ 1 Tom Holland as Spider-Man? 42% ▲ 2 Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? 30% Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? 29% Halle Berry as Storm? 23% Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? 14% ▼ 2 Jonathan Majors as Kang? 13% ▲ 2
Callum Turner 36% Jack Lowden 33% ▲ 1 Josh O'Connor 23% ▲ 1 Jack O'Connell 11% ▼ 1 27 more Jack Barton 9% ▲ 1 Tom Francis 7% ▲ 1 Jacob Elordi 6% ▲ 1 Harris Dickinson 5% Nicholas Hoult 5% ▲ 3 Robert Pattinson 5% Paul Mescal 5% ▲ 2 Aaron Taylor-Johnson 4% ▲ 1 Henry Cavill 4% Damson Idris 3% Scott Rose-Marsh 3% ▲ 1 Aaron Pierre 3% James Norton 3% Theo James 3% George MacKay 3% ▼ 3 Tom Hardy 2% Idris Elba 2% ▼ 1 Richard Madden 2% Regé-Jean Page 2% Tom Holland 2% Henry Ashton 2% Tom Blyth 2% Cillian Murphy 1% Charlie Hunnam 1% Jonathan Bailey 1% Nicholas Galitzine 1% Luke Evans 1%
40 100
Median 97.1 Middle half 96.1 – 98.0
40 100
Median 85.1 Middle half 73.8 – 91.3
Obsession 43% ▲ 1 The Odyssey 34% Spider-Man: Brand New Day 11% ▼ 1 Backrooms 5% 18 more Avengers: Doomsday 3% ▲ 1 Scream 7 <1% ▼ 2 Wuthering Heights <1% ▼ 1 Michael <1% ▼ 1 Supergirl <1% Wicked: For Good <1% Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu <1% Toy Story 5 <1% The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% Dune: Messiah <1% Project Hail Mary <1% The Super Mario Galaxy Movie <1% Jumanji 3 <1% Minions & Monsters <1% Shrek 5 <1% Moana <1% The Devil Wears Prada 2 <1% Avatar: Fire and Ash <1%
140.00M 210.00M
Median 155.24M Middle half 152.62M – 157.87M
40 99
Median 93.1 Middle half 91.8 – 94.2
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 59% ▲ 2 Avengers: Doomsday 41% ▼ 2 Toy Story 5 <1% The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1% 1 more
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine 94% Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool 93% ▲ 1 Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man 92% ▲ 1 Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange 88% ▲ 1 16 more Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop 83% Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau 80% Benedict Wong as Wong 79% Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel 77% ▲ 4 Mark Ruffalo as Hulk 70% ▼ 1 Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch 62% Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts 57% ▼ 6 Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez 54% ▼ 2 Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan 53% ▲ 3 Brie Larson as Captain Marvel 49% Tom Holland as Spider-Man 37% ▼ 5 Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine 32% Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man 30% Halle Berry as Storm 17% Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp 10% ▲ 1 Jonathan Majors as Kang 9%
40 95
Median 73.3 Middle half 63.5 – 79.1
20.00M 50.00M
Median 32.50M Middle half 31.24M – 33.75M
6.00M 18.00M
Median 7.00M Middle half 6.50M – 7.50M
0 95
Median 28.9 Middle half 25.1 – 35.8
40 100
Median 89.9 Middle half 82.5 – 93.7
40 95
Median 75.2 Middle half 65.3 – 83.2
Love Is Blind: Boston 98% East of Eden: Limited Series 2% ▲ 1 Tyson: Limited Series <1% Below: Limited Series <1% 3 more Mojo Brookzz: I Know You Lying <1% The Diplomat: Season 4 <1% ▼ 2 Instadocs: AI Gone Wild <1%
15 95
Median 46.8 Middle half 32.2 – 57.9
3.00M 9.00M
Median 7.50M Middle half 7.25M – 7.75M
3 60
Median 32.5 Middle half 31.2 – 33.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .
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