TIME Person of the Year 2026

Polymarket Culture Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $1.6K today · $162K traded · $79.3K at stake · prices read 13 min ago

The odds

26%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani26%▼ 1
  • Pope Leo XIV17%▲ 2
  • Mark Carney17%▲ 1
  • Donald Trump9%▼ 1
  • Artificial Intelligence8%
  • Marco Rubio8%
  • Dario Amodei8%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu8%▼ 2
  • Elon Musk6%▼ 1
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf5%▲ 1
  • Christina Koch5%
16 more
  • James Talarico4%
  • Péter Magyar4%
  • Reid Wiseman3%▼ 1
  • Mojtaba Khamenei3%▼ 1
  • Bad Bunny3%
  • Sam Altman3%
  • Jeremy Hansen3%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
  • ChatGPT3%
  • Shehbaz Sharif3%
  • Alysa Liu2%
  • Taylor Swift2%▲ 1
  • Ali Khamenei2%
  • Ali G2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Bernie Sanders1%

How the odds have moved

Zohran Mamdani: 28% on Oct 20, 26% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Zohran Mamdani 26% ▼ 1 25¢ 27¢ $3.70 $44.2K
Pope Leo XIV 17% ▲ 2 15¢ 18¢ $5.56 $27.1K
Mark Carney 17% ▲ 1 16¢ 17¢ $5.88 $10.7K
Donald Trump 9% ▼ 1 7¢ 10¢ $10.00 $14.3K
Artificial Intelligence 8% 8¢ 9¢ $11.63 $7.8K
Marco Rubio 8% 6¢ 9¢ $10.87 $9.2K
Dario Amodei 8% 8¢ 8¢ $13.16 $3.5K
Benjamin Netanyahu 8% ▼ 2 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 $8.2K
Elon Musk 6% ▼ 1 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 $4.1K
Victor Glover 5% 4¢ 6¢ $17.24 $202
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5% ▲ 1 5¢ 5¢ $19.23 $9.1K
Christina Koch 5% 4¢ 6¢ $17.24 $530
James Talarico 4% 3¢ 5¢ $21.28 $3.9K
Péter Magyar 4% 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 $456
Reid Wiseman 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 5¢ $20.83 $188
Mojtaba Khamenei 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 5¢ $21.28 $324
Bad Bunny 3% 2¢ 5¢ $21.28 $298
Sam Altman 3% 2¢ 4¢ $23.26 $341
Jeremy Hansen 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.83 $288
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 3% 2¢ 4¢ $27.78 $397
ChatGPT 3% 1¢ 5¢ $21.28 $146
Shehbaz Sharif 3% 1¢ 5¢ $22.22 $176
Alysa Liu 2% 1¢ 4¢ $27.03 $2.1K
Taylor Swift 2% ▲ 1 1¢ 4¢ $26.32 $219
Ali Khamenei 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 $91
Ali G 2% 2¢ 2¢ $55.56 $10.9K
Jerome Powell 2% 1¢ 3¢ $38.46 $289
Bernie Sanders 1% 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 $3.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

TIME's Person of the Year 2026

27%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani27%
  • Pope Leo XIV13%
  • Donald Trump7%
  • Dario Amodei6%
16 more
  • Benjamin Netanyahu5%
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Elon Musk5%
  • Jeremy Hansen5%
  • James Talarico4%
  • Sam Altman4%
  • Marco Rubio4%
  • Reid Wiseman4%
  • Bad Bunny3%
  • Christina Koch3%
  • Peter Magyar3%
  • Alysa Liu2%
  • Shehbaz Sharif2%
  • Jerome Powell2%
  • Taylor Swift1%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf1%
Crypto.comCloses Dec 31 · $404 today · $404 traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

28%Zohran Mamdani
  • Zohran Mamdani28%▼ 1
  • Pope Leo XIV17%
  • Mark Carney14%▼ 3
  • Donald Trump9%
38 more
  • James Talarico7%
  • Elon Musk7%▼ 1
  • AI7%
  • Dario Amodei7%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu6%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio5%▼ 1
  • Sam Altman5%▼ 1
  • Victor Glover5%
  • Christina Koch5%
  • Jeremy Hansen5%
  • Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf5%
  • ChatGPT4%
  • Bad Bunny4%
  • Reid Wiseman4%▼ 2
  • Mojtaba Khamenei4%
  • Xi Jinping4%
  • Abdul El-Sayed4%▼ 1
  • Shehbaz Sharif3%▼ 1
  • Jon Ossoff3%
  • Alysa Liu3%
  • Péter Magyar3%
  • Lionel Messi3%
  • Bernie Sanders3%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3%
  • James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast3%
  • Pete Hegseth3%
  • Jerome Powell2%▲ 1
  • Taylor Swift2%
  • Susie Wiles2%
  • Christopher Nolan2%
  • Chris Wright2%
  • Hakeem Jeffries1%
  • JD Vance1%
  • Erika Kirk1%▲ 1
  • Andy Burnham1%
  • Steve Witkoff1%
  • Jared Kushner1%▲ 1
  • Kevin Warsh1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $694 today · $344K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: TIME Person, Zohran Mamdani, Pope Leo XIV

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Junior Eurovision Winner 2026

99%Armenia
  • Armenia99%▲ 56
  • Albania<1%▼ 1
  • Azerbaijan<1%▼ 1
15 more
  • Croatia<1%▼ 2
  • Cyprus<1%▼ 4
  • France<1%▼ 13
  • Georgia<1%▼ 6
  • Ireland<1%▼ 14
  • Italy<1%▼ 1
  • Malta<1%▼ 22
  • Montenegro<1%▼ 2
  • Netherlands<1%▼ 2
  • North Macedonia<1%▼ 9
  • Poland<1%▼ 7
  • Portugal<1%▼ 1
  • San Marino<1%▼ 4
  • Spain<1%▼ 25
  • Ukraine<1%▼ 16

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions