Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
68%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep68%▲ 4
- R Senate, D House24%▼ 5
- Republicans Sweep8%▼ 1
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
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2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate?
The odds
47%Democratic Sweep
- Democratic Sweep47%▲ 1
- Republican Sweep11%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate, R-President7%
- D-House, R-Senate, D-President5%
- R-House, D-Senate, R-President3%
- R-House, R-Senate, D-President3%
- D-House, D-Senate, R-President2%
- R-House, D-Senate, D-President1%
How the odds have moved
Democratic Sweep: 47% on Oct 20, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Sweep | 47% | ▲ 1 | 45¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 125.5K |
| Republican Sweep | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 102.3K |
| D-House, R-Senate, R-President | 7% | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 47.4K | |
| D-House, R-Senate, D-President | 5% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | 42.1K | |
| R-House, D-Senate, R-President | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | 33.6K | |
| R-House, R-Senate, D-President | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | 41.4K | |
| D-House, D-Senate, R-President | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 31.6K | |
| R-House, D-Senate, D-President | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | 37.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Presidency, House, Senate
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Tino Fernandes: Democratic sweep is best hope to save ideals of 1776The Conway Daily Sun Has President Donald Trump completely lost it? As the pressure of the upcoming midterms rises, Trumpâs behavior has progressively become more and more erratic. Javascript is required for you to be able to read… -
Pa. election 2026: These state House and Senate races could change the balance of power in HarrisburgIn addition to the governor, Pennsylvania voters will elect all 203 members of the state House and half of the 50-member state Senate on Nov. 3. As voters prepare to cast ballots in crucial races across the state, Republicans and Democrats… -
Trump, Vance defend GOP policies as House, Senate races are closeCBS News Colorado Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6:30pm CBS News Miami 6:30pm CBS Philadelphia at 6:30pm KDKA News Weekends 6:30pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas 5:30pm -
Trump looms in Illinois Senate debateShia Kapos' must-read rundown of political news in the Land of Lincoln 10/21/2026 08:00 AM EDT Good Wednesday morning, Illinois. Politics in this state has never been for the faint of heart. Republican Don Tracy and Democrat Juliana… -
Most Americans think Trump is using presidency to enrich himself, poll findsPoll finds 66% of Americans think Trump is using position for monetary gain as his approval rating hits a new low Most Americans think Donald Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself, according to a new poll, as the US president’s… -
Democrats jump into Mississippi Senate raceSenate Democrats’ top super PAC announced Tuesday it is launching a new ad campaign in the Mississippi Senate race, as Democrats seek inroads in Republican-leaning states to try to flip the Senate majority. Senate Majority PAC announced a… -
MI Senate, AZ House & Women's Midterm Milestones (49)FOX 2 Detroit A look at Michigan's Senate race, Arizona's House battlegrounds and potential historic milestones for women in Congress and governor's races. -
Candidates for District 29 House, Senate answer questions 'On the Issues'Voters in District 29 will choose two candidates to represent them in the North Dakota House of Representatives and one candidate for the North Dakota Senate. Craig Headland, Dianne Norris and Kevin Wolsky are seeking seats on the North… -
2026 midterm betting odds. See who's favored to win House, SenateBetting odds for the 2026 midterms have shifted slightly toward Republicans with just over two weeks until Election Day. Unlike public opinion polls, betting markets do not directly measure voters' preferences. Their odds can move based on… -
Election 2026: How to vet PA House and Senate candidatesHARRISBURG — This year, every member of Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives and half of the state Senate will be on the ballot. These races receive less media attention than top-of-the-ballot ones, such as for the U.S. House or… -
Maine Democrats fret over Troy Jackson’s guarded Senate campaignWashington Examiner BANGOR, Maine — Hope Brogunier was visibly exasperated on Friday after watching Troy Jackson onstage for his final debate against Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). She was a die-hard Graham Platner supporter and still reeling… -
The Senate map expands (again): From the Politics DeskWelcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman looks at the…
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Tucker Carlson3%
40 more
- Ron DeSantis3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
93%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party93%▲ 1
- Republican Party8%▼ 1
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
- Gavin Newsom16%
- Jon Ossoff14%▼ 1
50 more
- Kamala Harris7%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear3%
- James Talarico3%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Wes Moore2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- Ro Khanna1%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20%JD Vance
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom9%
51 more
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Ron DeSantis2%▼ 1
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.1median
46.557.5
Median 48.1Middle half 47.1 – 50.1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.