Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
66%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep66%▲ 1
- R Senate, D House25%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
The odds
87%Ted Cruz
- Ted Cruz87%
- J.D. Vance75%
- Ron DeSantis65%
- Marco Rubio57%▲ 1
- Rand Paul51%▼ 1
- Thomas Massie45%
- Glenn Youngkin38%▼ 1
- Chris Christie36%▼ 1
- Brian Kemp35%
- Tulsi Gabbard30%▼ 1
- Pete Hegseth28%▼ 1
- Gregory Bovino28%▼ 2
26 more
- Donald J. Trump Jr.28%▼ 1
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders27%
- Vivek Ramaswamy26%▲ 1
- John McEntee26%▼ 1
- Doug Burgum26%▼ 1
- Tucker Carlson24%▲ 1
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.24%▼ 2
- Nikki Haley22%
- Steve Bannon22%
- Byron Donalds19%
- John Kennedy18%▼ 1
- Donald J. Trump17%▲ 2
- Marjorie Taylor Greene16%▲ 1
- Jeff Bezos16%▲ 1
- Greg Abbott15%▼ 1
- Spencer Pratt14%▼ 2
- Josh Hawley14%
- Elise Stefanik13%
- Erika Kirk13%
- Larry Hogan12%▼ 1
- Tim Scott12%▼ 1
- Jared Kushner11%
- Katie Britt11%
- John Thune6%
- Matt Gaetz4%
- Elon Musk3%
How the odds have moved
Ted Cruz: 82% on Oct 20, 87% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 87% | 85¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 25.7K | |
| J.D. Vance | 75% | 74¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 38.2K | |
| Ron DeSantis | 65% | 64¢ | 66¢ | $1.52 | 37.8K | |
| Marco Rubio | 57% | ▲ 1 | 56¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 50.4K |
| Rand Paul | 51% | ▼ 1 | 47¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 14.9K |
| Thomas Massie | 45% | 43¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 15.6K | |
| Glenn Youngkin | 38% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 10.7K |
| Chris Christie | 36% | ▼ 1 | 32¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 3.0K |
| Brian Kemp | 35% | 33¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 952 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 30% | ▼ 1 | 26¢ | 33¢ | $3.03 | 9.8K |
| Pete Hegseth | 28% | ▼ 1 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 8.6K |
| Gregory Bovino | 28% | ▼ 2 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 13.1K |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 28% | ▼ 1 | 25¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 38.6K |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 27% | 24¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 5.4K | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 26% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | 11.7K |
| John McEntee | 26% | ▼ 1 | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 15.6K |
| Doug Burgum | 26% | ▼ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | |
| Tucker Carlson | 24% | ▲ 1 | 23¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 62.9K |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 24% | ▼ 2 | 21¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 11.3K |
| Nikki Haley | 22% | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 9.5K | |
| Steve Bannon | 22% | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 9.4K | |
| Byron Donalds | 19% | 16¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 493 | |
| John Kennedy | 18% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 831 |
| Donald J. Trump | 17% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 19.6K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 16% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 40.0K |
| Jeff Bezos | 16% | ▲ 1 | 14¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 4.8K |
| Greg Abbott | 15% | ▼ 1 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 7.0K |
| Spencer Pratt | 14% | ▼ 2 | 13¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 939 |
| Josh Hawley | 14% | 10¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 23.1K | |
| Elise Stefanik | 13% | 11¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.1K | |
| Erika Kirk | 13% | 12¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 5.8K | |
| Larry Hogan | 12% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 340 |
| Tim Scott | 12% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 151 |
| Jared Kushner | 11% | 10¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 1.0K | |
| Katie Britt | 11% | 7¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 830 | |
| John Thune | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $10.64 | 807 | |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | 3.6K | |
| Elon Musk | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 4.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ted Cruz, J.D. Vance, Ron DeSantis
Search ›-
Ted Cruz says 2028 'conversation' will start after midterm electionsWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Protesters unveil melting Ron DeSantis statue to signify his inaction on climate crisisFlorida governor has consistently opposed any legislation to curb planet-heating emissions, calling it a ‘radical climate agenda’ A life-sized statue of Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, was unveiled and promptly began melting in front… -
In Texas Senate race, Ted Cruz tries to push Ken Paxton across the finish lineThe Washington Post THE WOODLANDS, Texas — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is not up for election this year, but he is campaigning across his home state as though he is. Rather than pitching himself, Cruz is making a spirited case for the… -
Hotel bookings up ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance’s arrivalKNOP NORTH PLATTE, Neb. (KNOP) - Vice President J.D. Vance has not yet arrived in North Platte, but his planned visit is already filling area hotels. Hotels in the area report reservations are up ahead of Thursday’s event. A hotel manager… -
Vice President J.D. Vance’s Deceptive ‘Antiwar’ Campaign SpeechJ.D. Vance is approaching the halfway point of his term as vice president in an administration that has committed the United States to wars in locations from Ukraine to Venezuela to Somalia to Iran and beyond. All the while, the… -
Ted Cruz Claims Muslim Senate Candidate Will Share Classified Info With ‘Terrorists’Mediaite Ted Cruz (R-TX) baselessly claimed that if elected, Abdul El-Sayed will share classified information with Muslim terrorists El-Sayed, a former public health official who is hoping to become the first Muslim elected to the U.S… -
Ted Cruz gins up fears about Abdul El-SayedHer alleged attacker, 43-year-old Brendan Nugent, faces multiple charges and appeared in court for the first time on Wednesday. By Artem Storonov MOSCOW, Oct 21 (Reuters) - At Russia's state-backed toy competition, a plush cat dressed as a… - Ted Cruz urges New Yorkers to ‘shock the country’ and give Hochul the boot for BlakemanWASHINGTON — Sen. Ted Cruz wants a new set of “New York values” to take effect. The Lone Star State Republican implored Empire State voters to “shock the country” by backing Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Blakeman and booting…
-
J.D. Vance Fumbles When Quizzed on Kate Zacharia's White House Firing — Before Blaming MediaJ.D. Vance struggled to get his words out when he was asked about Kate Zacharia's sacking. Oct. 20 2026, Published 11:31 a.m. ET Vice President J.D. Vance fumbled a simple question about Kate Zacharia while being grilled over the former… -
Suspicious Powder Letter Triggers Lockdown at Ted Cruz’s Houston OfficeAs political violence continues to escalate, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has become the latest target of a potential threat. The FBI is investigating a series of suspicious mailings containing unknown substances sent to government buildings… -
Senator Ted Cruz rallies with Senator Dan Sullivan in FairbanksAlaska's News Source Senator Ted Cruz rallies with Senator Dan Sullivan in Fairbanks U.S. Transportation Secretary announces $249 million for Port MacKenzie Troopers identify couple killed in head-on Parks Highway crash; toddler survives…
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%▲ 1
- Gavin Newsom17%
- Jon Ossoff16%
50 more
- Kamala Harris7%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear3%
- James Talarico3%
- Wes Moore2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- Ro Khanna1%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Michelle Obama1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
44%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance44%
- Marco Rubio15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
40 more
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
21%JD Vance
- JD Vance21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom10%▲ 1
51 more
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Marco Rubio9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Ron DeSantis3%
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Donald Trump1%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
48.1median
46.557.5
Median 48.1Middle half 47.1 – 50.3
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.