María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
The odds
Mar 31, 2027even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20262%
- Before Dec 1, 20267%
- Before Jan 1, 202722%
- Before Apr 1, 202751%
- Before Sep 1, 202751%
How the odds have moved
Before Nov 1, 2026: 5% on Oct 19, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 24, 2026 | 2% | $50.00 | 313 | |||
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 6% | $16.67 | 660 | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 5.0K | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 655 | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 7% | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 1.7K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22% | 17¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | 52.00 | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 51% | 2¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 12.00 | |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 51% | 2¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 163 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Canada
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Canada’s Plan B: Hedging Beyond the United StatesIn September, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke of building a “unique alliance” between Canada and the European Union. The substance is less dramatic than the headlines, but more revealing. Ottawa wants deeper cooperation in… -
F1 United States GP 2026 Qualifying Race Live Streaming Details: Start Time, Weather Forecast, Where To Watch In India, USA, Canada And WorldwideLeclerc set the fastest time of 1:35.291 in FP2, finishing just 0.042 seconds ahead of Antonelli. Verstappen was another 0.189 seconds back, with Lewis Hamilton fourth and George Russell fifth. Leclerc also topped FP1 with a time of… -
FURTHER MODIFYING THE SCOPE OF PRODUCTS OF CANADA SUBJECT TO THE ADDITIONAL DUTIES IMPOSED TO OFFSET CANADIAN DISCRIMINATION AGAINST THE COMMERCE OF THE UNITED STATES WITH RESPECT TO MOTOR VEHICLESBY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 3. On August 21, 2026, Canada reneged on its commitment, ceased negotiating in good faith, and did not remove the discrimination or unreasonable and unequal imposition at issue in… -
Azurity Pharmaceuticals Announces Plans To Commercialize D-PLEX100 In The United States And Canada Through Exclusive Partnership With PolyPidAzurity Pharmaceuticals announced plans to commercialize D-PLEX100 upon approval in the United States and Canada for the prevention of abdominal colorectal surgical site infections in partnership with... Azurity Pharmaceuticals announced… - Polypid Ltd. and Azurity Pharmaceuticals Ireland Ltd. Enter License and Supply Agreement for Commercialization of D-Plex in the United States and CanadaPolyPid Ltd. entered into a License and Supply Agreement with Azurity Pharmaceuticals Ireland Ltd., pursuant to which PolyPid Ltd. granted the exclusive right to Azurity Pharmaceuticals Ireland Ltd.... entered into a License and Supply…
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Canada is tense: Belarus is increasing the supply of potash fertilizers to the United StatesEADaily, October 22nd, 2026. In the near future, the next batch of potash fertilizers from Belarus will go to the USA. This was announced by the Belarusian representative to the UN Valentin Rybakov following the results of the report to… -
Trump started a trade war with Canada. GOP candidates became casualties.Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. High tariffs on… -
In Canada: Summer Walker, Bebe Rexha to Accept Awards at Billboard Canada Women in Music 2026Also this week: Drake finances a new album for a Canadian rapper and Tate McRae's Victoria's Secret performance draws criticism. Billboard Canada has announced some more major global names for Billboard Canada Women In Music, where Cardi B… -
The top 25 modern golf courses in Canada, rankedWelcome to the Golfweek's Best 2026 ranking of the top 25 modern golf courses in Canada. Golfweek for many years ranked Canadian courses, but during COVID there wasn't much movement on the lists of best modern and classic courses in the… -
US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate… -
Royal Carribean cruise to the Bahamas went to Canada insteadThis was one confused cruise. More than 5,000 passengers expecting a week of fun in the sun in the Bahamas instead found themselves headed for chilly Canada after stormy weather forced their Royal Caribbean cruise to change course. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions