Predictions › News Topics › Prediction Markets Regulation and the courts The CFTC, state regulators and the courts deciding what event contracts may be sold, and to whom.
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No change 85% ▼ 3 25 bps increase 14% ▲ 2 25 bps decrease <1% 2 more 50+ bps increase <1% 50+ bps decrease <1% San Francisco 77% ▼ 2
Washington 24% ▲ 2
Tottenham Hotspur FC >99% ▲ 35
Draw <1% ▼ 20
Coventry City FC <1% ▼ 15
Hernan Casanova 2%
Gonzalo Bueno 99%
October 22 67% ▼ 4 October 24 67% ▼ 5 October 28 67% ▼ 3 6 more October 31 67% ▼ 5 November 8 67% ▼ 2 November 15 67% November 22 67% ▲ 2 November 30 67% ▲ 2 December 31 67% ▲ 1 Flávio Bolsonaro 76% ▼ 3 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 24% ▲ 3 Marine Le Pen 46% ▼ 2 Édouard Philippe 18% ▼ 1 David Lisnard 12% 42 more Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10% ▲ 1 Raphaël Glucksmann 5% François Hollande 2% Gabriel Attal 1% Sarah Knafo 1% Éric Zemmour 1% Bruno Retailleau 1% Christine Lagarde 1% Jordan Bardella 1% Dominique de Villepin 1% Sébastien Lecornu <1% Xavier Bertrand <1% François Ruffin <1% Marine Tondelier <1% Ségolène Royal <1% François Asselineau <1% Jean Castex <1% Karim Bouamrane <1% Laurent Wauquiez <1% Fabien Roussel <1% Olivier Faure <1% Clémentine Autain <1% Nicolas Dupont-Aignan <1% Michel Barnier <1% Valérie Pécresse <1% François Bayrou <1% Élisabeth Borne <1% Yaël Braun-Pivet <1% Gérald Darmanin <1% Carole Delga <1% Bernard Cazeneuve <1% Manuel Bompard <1% Mathilde Panot <1% Juan Branco <1% Clémence Guetté <1% Lucie Castets <1% Yannick Jadot <1% François Baroin <1% Marion Maréchal <1% Natacha Polony <1% Anasse Kazib <1% Sylvain Durif <1% Gadi Eizenkot 50% ▲ 4 Benjamin Netanyahu 28% ▼ 2 Naftali Bennett 13% 16 more Avigdor Lieberman 4% ▲ 1 Itamar Ben Gvir <1% Yossi Cohen <1% Israel Katz <1% Amir Ohana <1% Ofer Winter <1% Yair Lapid <1% Benny Gantz <1% Yair Golan <1% Gideon Sa’ar <1% Yariv Levin <1% Moshe Feiglin <1% Ayelet Shaked <1% Yoaz Hendel <1% Nir Barkat <1% Gilad Erdan <1% A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .