Predictions › News Topics › Prediction Markets Polymarket The crypto-based market: its traders, record bets, return to the U.S. and scrutiny.
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No change 85% ▼ 2 25 bps increase 14% ▲ 2 25 bps decrease <1% 2 more 50+ bps increase <1% 50+ bps decrease <1% 25 bps increase 77% ▲ 2 No change 19% ▼ 2 50+ bps increase 3% 2 more 25 bps decrease 1% 50+ bps decrease <1% No change 64% ▲ 2 25 bps increase 33% ▼ 1 50+ bps increase 1% 2 more 25 bps decrease 1% 50+ bps decrease 1% JD Vance 20% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13% Jon Ossoff 10% ▼ 1 51 more Gavin Newsom 9% Marco Rubio 9% ▲ 1 Kamala Harris 4% Josh Shapiro 3% Pete Buttigieg 3% Andy Beshear 2% Ron DeSantis 2% Tucker Carlson 2% Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 2% James Talarico 1% Donald Trump 1% Mark Kelly 1% Raphael Warnock 1% Wes Moore 1% Ro Khanna 1% Thomas Massie 1% JB Pritzker 1% Ted Cruz 1% Rahm Emanuel 1% Ivanka Trump 1% Donald Trump Jr. 1% Gretchen Whitmer <1% Jamie Dimon <1% Glenn Youngkin <1% Greg Abbott <1% Elon Musk <1% Michelle Obama <1% Stephen Smith <1% Tulsi Gabbard <1% Nikki Haley <1% Tim Walz <1% Vivek Ramaswamy <1% LeBron James <1% Kim Kardashian <1% Zohran Mamdani <1% Eric Trump <1% Pete Hegseth <1% Jalen Brunson <1% Abigail Spanberger <1% Hakeem Jeffries <1% Elissa Slotkin <1% Adam Schiff <1% Josh Stein <1% Alex Padilla <1% Candace Owens <1% Tim Scott <1% Mike Johnson <1% Doug Burgum <1% Tom Cotton <1% John N. Kennedy <1% Rick Scott <1% Kimi Antonelli 98% Max Verstappen 1% Lewis Hamilton <1% 3 more Lando Norris <1% George Russell <1% Charles Leclerc <1%
Commanders <1% ▼ 21
49ers >99% ▲ 21
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .