Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $17.3K today · $588K traded · $70.5K at stake · prices read 26 min ago

The odds

47%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey47%▲ 3
  • You Can See Everything27%
  • La Bola Negra12%▼ 2
  • Dune: Part Three7%▲ 1
  • Digger4%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Behemoth!<1%
  • Josephine<1%
15 more
  • Tony<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • I Play Rocky<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Saturn Return<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Clarissa<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fatherland<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 48% on Oct 20, 47% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
The Odyssey 47% ▲ 3 47¢ 48¢ $2.08 $189K
You Can See Everything 27% 27¢ 29¢ $3.41 $43K
La Bola Negra 12% ▼ 2 12¢ 14¢ $7.14 $32.1K
Dune: Part Three 7% ▲ 1 6¢ 9¢ $11.11 $38.2K
Digger 4% 4¢ 5¢ $21.28 $33.6K
Wild Horse Nine 1% 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 $27.7K
Artificial <1% 0¢ 1¢ $12.1K
The Invite <1% 0¢ 0¢ $16.5K
Project Hail Mary <1% 0¢ 0¢ $17.3K
The Drama <1% 0¢ 0¢ $15.5K
Behemoth! <1% 0¢ 0¢ $16.2K
Josephine <1% 0¢ 0¢ $16.4K
Tony <1% 0¢ 0¢ $14.4K
Fjord <1% 0¢ 0¢ $17.1K
The Social Reckoning <1% 0¢ 0¢ $15.9K
The Debut <1% 0¢ 0¢ $17.6K
Obsession <1% 0¢ 0¢ $10.2K
I Play Rocky <1% 0¢ 0¢ $10.2K
Elsinore <1% 0¢ $4.9K
The Adventures of Cliff Booth <1% 0¢ $13.7K
Saturn Return <1% 0¢ $6.9K
All of a Sudden <1% 0¢ $8K
Clarissa <1% 0¢ $1.4K
Disclosure Day <1% 0¢ $3K
Fatherland <1% 0¢ $1.4K
Michael <1% 0¢ $4.3K
Avengers: Doomsday <1% 0¢ $1.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Crypto.com

Oscars: Best Picture Winner 2027

56%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey56%
  • The Black Ball21%
  • Wild Horse Nine11%
  • Project Hail Mary10%
2 more
  • Dune: Part Three1%
  • Digger1%
Crypto.comCloses Mar 14, 2027 · $471 today · $471 traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

49%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey49%▲ 5
  • You Can See Everything27%▼ 1
  • The Black Ball13%
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
37 more
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $26.1K today · $1.6M traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Picture

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All awards ›
Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey98%▼ 1
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • You Can See Everything84%▲ 5
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • Project Hail Mary75%▼ 2
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite63%▲ 1
  • I Play Rocky57%▼ 1
  • Artificial54%▼ 2
  • All of a Sudden36%▼ 1
  • Obsession33%
  • Fjord32%▼ 3
  • Elsinore30%▼ 1
  • Wildwood28%▲ 2
  • Digger23%
  • Club Kid23%▲ 1
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 2
  • Being Heumann18%
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth14%▼ 1
  • Michael11%▼ 1
  • Primetime10%▼ 1
  • Josephine8%▲ 2
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Sense and Sensibility6%▼ 1
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 2
  • Saturn Return5%▼ 1
  • Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • Cry to Heaven4%▼ 1
  • 1949 / Fatherland4%
  • Minotaur4%▼ 1
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 1
  • The Drama3%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • Clarissa3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%▼ 1
  • Rose3%▼ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%▼ 1
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Avengers: Doomsday2%▼ 3
  • The Death of Robin Hood2%▼ 1
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Hope2%▼ 1
  • Backrooms2%▼ 1
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

89%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball89%▼ 1
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut77%▲ 1
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 568%▼ 12
8 more
  • By Any Means - By Any Means66%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey56%▲ 13
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 248%▲ 23
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad35%▼ 6
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk28%▲ 1
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!10%▼ 23
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn6%▲ 6
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

53%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball53%▼ 7
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut29%▲ 14
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 513%▼ 2
8 more
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk1%▼ 5
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
  • By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

92%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon92%▲ 1
  • John Malkovich87%▲ 1
  • Andrew Scott85%
16 more
  • Tom Cruise62%▲ 12
  • Anthony Ippolito49%▼ 2
  • Ryan Gosling44%▼ 1
  • John Turturro42%▼ 7
  • Robert Pattinson33%▼ 11
  • Jaafar Jackson18%
  • Pedro Pascal17%▲ 1
  • Sebastian Stan16%▼ 3
  • Timothée Chalamet12%▲ 1
  • Sam Rockwell6%▼ 1
  • Adam Driver5%
  • Javier Bardem5%▲ 1
  • Josh O'Connor5%
  • Brad Pitt4%▲ 1
  • Robert Aramayo3%
  • Jeremy Strong2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions