Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $1.8K today · $164K traded · $33K at stake · prices read 21 min ago

The odds

91%Matt Damon

Matt Damon91%▼ 1
John Malkovich86%▼ 3
Andrew Scott86%▲ 1
Tom Cruise49%▼ 3
John Turturro47%▲ 2
Anthony Ippolito47%▲ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson44%
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 1
Pedro Pascal16%
Timothée Chalamet11%▲ 1

7 more

Sam Rockwell6%▼ 1
Adam Driver5%
Javier Bardem5%
Josh O'Connor5%
Brad Pitt4%
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%

How the odds have moved

Matt Damon: 93% on Oct 20, 91% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Matt Damon	91%	▼ 1	90¢	93¢	$1.08	$11.7K
John Malkovich	86%	▼ 3	85¢	87¢	$1.15	$6.3K
Andrew Scott	86%	▲ 1	84¢	87¢	$1.15	$9.2K
Tom Cruise	49%	▼ 3	48¢	49¢	$2.04	$23K
John Turturro	47%	▲ 2	46¢	48¢	$2.08	$5.2K
Anthony Ippolito	47%	▲ 2	45¢	48¢	$2.08	$6.8K
Ryan Gosling	45%	▲ 2	44¢	46¢	$2.17	$9.8K
Robert Pattinson	44%		43¢	44¢	$2.27	$12.6K
Sebastian Stan	19%		18¢	19¢	$5.26	$6.7K
Jaafar Jackson	18%	▲ 1	17¢	18¢	$5.56	$13.3K
Pedro Pascal	16%		15¢	17¢	$5.78	$12.6K
Timothée Chalamet	11%	▲ 1	10¢	11¢	$9.09	$19.4K
Sam Rockwell	6%	▼ 1	5¢	7¢	$14.93	$9.5K
Adam Driver	5%		3¢	6¢	$15.63	$1.9K
Javier Bardem	5%		2¢	7¢	$14.71	$499
Josh O'Connor	5%		3¢	6¢	$15.63	$225
Brad Pitt	4%		3¢	6¢	$16.39	$1.9K
Robert Aramayo	3%		1¢	4¢	$24.39	$7.6K
Jeremy Strong	2%		0¢	3¢	$34.48	$5.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Actor (2027)Anthony IppolitoKalshi 52%Polymarket 47%5 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Actor (2027)

93%Matt Damon

Matt Damon93%
John Malkovich88%▼ 2
Andrew Scott84%▲ 1
Anthony Ippolito52%▲ 2

30 more

Tom Cruise51%▼ 4
Ryan Gosling47%
John Turturro46%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson46%
Yura Borisov22%
Sebastian Stan16%
Pedro Pascal14%
Timothée Chalamet14%▲ 1
Jaafar Jackson13%▼ 2
Mahershala Ali9%
Tom Holland7%▲ 1
Adam Driver6%▲ 3
Sam Rockwell5%
Andrew Garfield5%▼ 1
Dominic Sessa5%
Adam Scott5%
Robert Aramayo4%▼ 4
Javier Bardem4%▼ 1
Josh O'Connor4%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%▲ 2
Jeremy Strong4%
Keanu Reeves3%
Brad Pitt3%
Guy Pearce3%
Jeremy Allen White3%
Robert DeNiro3%
Sacha Baron Cohen3%
Hanns Zischler2%
Ethan Hawke2%
Charles Melton1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actor Nominations

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey

The Odyssey48%▲ 4
You Can See Everything28%▲ 1
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
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The Social Reckoning<1%
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Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything80%▼ 7
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▲ 5

7 more

American Doctor63%
14th39%
Nuisance Bear37%▲ 7
One in a Million31%▲ 3
Musk26%
Tutu23%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey

The Odyssey99%▲ 1
The Black Ball95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

Dune: Part Three83%
You Can See Everything81%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
The Debut74%
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky58%▲ 1
Artificial55%▼ 1
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
Fjord35%
Obsession34%▲ 1
Elsinore30%
Wildwood28%▲ 2
Club Kid24%▲ 2
Digger23%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%
Being Heumann18%
Possible Love17%▲ 1
Behemoth16%
Michael12%
Primetime10%
Ink8%▲ 2
Josephine7%▲ 1
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Misty Green4%▲ 1
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Paper Tiger4%
Minotaur4%▼ 1
Clarissa4%
Disclosure Day3%▲ 1
Werwulf3%▼ 3
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
Parallel Tales3%
The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%▲ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

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Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
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By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
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Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%

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Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

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Dune: Part Three79%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary64%

6 more

Fatherland41%▼ 4
Werwulf38%▼ 9
Digger38%▲ 8
Obsession16%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

97%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan97%
Javier Calvo89%
Martin McDonagh71%▲ 1

24 more

Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
Denis Villeneuve58%▲ 1
Olivia Wilde51%▲ 1
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
Cristian Mungiu28%
Jesse Eisenberg24%
Phil Lord12%
Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 1
Curry Barker10%▼ 1
Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
David Fincher10%▲ 2
Paweł Pawlikowski8%
Tony Gilroy8%
Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
Na Hong-jin4%
Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$164K

Today$1.8K

This week$54.7K

At stake$33K

In the news11 headlines today, 312 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions