Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $1.8K today · $19.2K traded · $814 at stake · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

61%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball61%▲ 6
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut17%▼ 14
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 514%▼ 1
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk2%
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
  • By Any Means - By Any Means1%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%

How the odds have moved

La Nieve - The Black Ball: 45% on Oct 20, 61% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 5 PM ETLa Nieve - The Black Ball: 57% → 63%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
La Nieve - The Black Ball 61% ▲ 6 56¢ 65¢ $1.54 $7.4K
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut 17% ▼ 14 16¢ 18¢ $5.56 $4.9K
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 14% ▼ 1 12¢ 16¢ $6.25 $1.3K
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk 2% 1¢ 3¢ $34.48 $930
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2 1% 0¢ 2¢ $50.00 $728
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth! 1% 0¢ 1¢ $90.91 $591
By Any Means - By Any Means 1% 0¢ 1¢ $553
When I'm Home - The Odyssey <1% 0¢ 0¢ $945
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad <1% 0¢ 0¢ $549
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn <1% 0¢ 0¢ $654
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights <1% 0¢ 0¢ $676

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Original Song

Search ›

Related markets

All awards ›

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

51%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey51%▲ 3
  • You Can See Everything23%▼ 5
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three7%▲ 2
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti
  • Paul Giamatti92%
  • Andrew Garfield78%
  • Sam Rockwell77%▲ 7
23 more
  • Guitarricadelafuente69%▼ 4
  • John Leguizamo62%▼ 5
  • Edward Norton51%▼ 5
  • Robert Pattinson29%▼ 1
  • Steve Buscemi19%▼ 6
  • Colman Domingo18%▼ 6
  • Riz Ahmed18%▼ 1
  • John Goodman13%▲ 1
  • Skyler Gisondo9%
  • Miles Teller7%▲ 1
  • James Ortiz7%
  • Antonio Banderas6%▲ 1
  • Channing Tatum6%▲ 1
  • Himesh Patel5%▼ 1
  • Guy Pearce5%▼ 5
  • Jeremy Strong5%▼ 11
  • Adam Scott5%
  • Michael Fassbender4%▲ 1
  • Charles Melton4%▲ 1
  • Daniel Craig4%
  • Tom Holland4%
  • Jesse Plemons3%
  • Robert De Niro3%

Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations

96%Project Hail Mary
  • Project Hail Mary96%▼ 2
  • The Odyssey88%▲ 10
  • Dune: Part Three85%▲ 16
11 more
  • The Black Ball48%▼ 9
  • Werwulf48%▲ 7
  • The Mosquito Bowl34%▼ 7
  • Whalefall33%▼ 1
  • Godzilla Minus Zero32%▲ 7
  • Behemoth!31%▲ 2
  • Michael23%▼ 4
  • The End of Oak Street23%▲ 13
  • Disclosure Day17%▼ 4
  • Digger13%▲ 6
  • The Debut8%▲ 1

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

91%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon91%▼ 1
  • John Malkovich87%▲ 2
  • Andrew Scott85%▼ 1
16 more
  • Tom Cruise54%▲ 2
  • Anthony Ippolito50%▲ 3
  • John Turturro46%▼ 1
  • Ryan Gosling45%▼ 1
  • Robert Pattinson30%▼ 8
  • Sebastian Stan18%▲ 2
  • Jaafar Jackson18%
  • Pedro Pascal16%
  • Timothée Chalamet14%▲ 3
  • Sam Rockwell6%
  • Adam Driver5%
  • Javier Bardem4%
  • Josh O'Connor4%
  • Brad Pitt4%
  • Robert Aramayo3%
  • Jeremy Strong2%

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey97%
  • La Bola Negra95%▼ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1
19 more
  • Dune: Part Three87%▼ 1
  • You Can See Everything79%▲ 1
  • The Debut76%▼ 1
  • Project Hail Mary74%▼ 3
  • The Invite64%▲ 2
  • I Play Rocky61%▲ 5
  • All of a Sudden37%
  • Fjord35%▼ 2
  • Obsession31%▲ 1
  • Elsinore31%▼ 1
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▼ 1
  • Digger21%▲ 2
  • Behemoth!14%▼ 4
  • Michael11%▼ 2
  • Avengers: Doomsday5%
  • Disclosure Day5%
  • Fatherland4%
  • The Drama3%
  • The Social Reckoning2%

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball
  • The Black Ball96%
  • The Odyssey86%▲ 1
  • Digger68%▲ 12
8 more
  • Project Hail Mary68%▲ 1
  • Dune: Part Three62%▼ 3
  • Sense and Sensibility52%▲ 27
  • Werwulf49%▼ 17
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth34%▲ 14
  • Wuthering Heights20%
  • Backrooms18%
  • Wildwood4%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions