Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $1.3K today · $25.4K traded · $11.5K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield86%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell79%▼ 7
John Leguizamo69%▲ 2
Guitarricadelafuente62%▼ 5
Edward Norton27%▼ 29
Robert Pattinson26%▲ 1
Colman Domingo22%▼ 3
John Goodman14%
Riz Ahmed12%▼ 3
Steve Buscemi12%
Jeremy Strong11%

14 more

Charles Melton10%▲ 3
Skyler Gisondo8%▼ 1
Antonio Banderas8%
Channing Tatum7%▲ 1
Tom Holland6%▲ 2
Miles Teller6%▲ 1
James Ortiz6%
Himesh Patel4%▲ 1
Michael Fassbender4%
Adam Scott3%
Robert De Niro3%
Daniel Craig1%
Guy Pearce1%▼ 1
Jesse Plemons1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Paul Giamatti	92%		91¢	93¢	$1.08	$673
Andrew Garfield	86%	▲ 1	85¢	86¢	$1.16	$170
Sam Rockwell	79%	▼ 7	77¢	80¢	$1.25	$760
John Leguizamo	69%	▲ 2	68¢	70¢	$1.43	$3.1K
Guitarricadelafuente	62%	▼ 5	53¢	70¢	$1.43	$2.1K
Edward Norton	27%	▼ 29	9¢	44¢	$2.27	$6
Robert Pattinson	26%	▲ 1	24¢	27¢	$3.70	$1K
Colman Domingo	22%	▼ 3	20¢	24¢	$4.17	$23
John Goodman	14%		14¢	14¢	$7.25	$17
Riz Ahmed	12%	▼ 3	10¢	13¢	$7.69	$1.3K
Steve Buscemi	12%		11¢	12¢	$8.33	$103
Jeremy Strong	11%		1¢	20¢	$5.00
Charles Melton	10%	▲ 3	9¢	11¢	$9.09	$1.2K
Skyler Gisondo	8%	▼ 1	7¢	9¢	$11.11	$474
Antonio Banderas	8%		5¢	10¢	$10.10
Channing Tatum	7%	▲ 1	5¢	9¢	$10.99	$173
Tom Holland	6%	▲ 2	5¢	7¢	$14.29	$2.3K
Miles Teller	6%	▲ 1	5¢	7¢	$14.71	$341
James Ortiz	6%		5¢	6¢	$16.67
Himesh Patel	4%	▲ 1	2¢	6¢	$16.67	$1.3K
Michael Fassbender	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	$57
Adam Scott	3%		3¢	3¢	$29.41	$2.7K
Robert De Niro	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	$657
Daniel Craig	1%		1¢	2¢	$58.82	$4.7K
Guy Pearce	1%	▼ 1	0¢	2¢	$52.63	$455
Jesse Plemons	1%		0¢	1¢	$76.92	$1.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)Charles MeltonKalshi 4%Polymarket 10%7 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

88%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti88%▲ 1
Andrew Garfield82%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell78%▲ 2
John Leguizamo70%▼ 1

23 more

Guitarricadelafuente66%▼ 1
Edward Norton50%▼ 1
Colman Domingo25%
Robert Pattinson22%
Steve Buscemi12%
Riz Ahmed11%▼ 6
Channing Tatum10%▼ 1
Himesh Patel10%▼ 1
John Goodman9%▼ 1
Antonio Banderas9%▲ 1
Jeremy Strong6%▼ 2
Guy Pearce6%▼ 1
Skyler Gisondo6%▼ 1
Tom Holland5%
Jesse Plemons5%▼ 1
Daniel Craig5%▼ 1
James Ortiz5%▼ 1
Charles Melton4%
Miles Teller4%▼ 1
Robert DeNiro4%
Adam Scott4%
Michael Fassbender3%
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor Nominations

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three87%
The Debut81%▼ 2
Project Hail Mary80%
You Can See Everything71%▼ 3
The Invite58%▲ 1
Fjord39%
I Play Rocky39%
All of a Sudden36%▲ 1
Obsession34%
Elsinore25%▼ 5
Behemoth!22%▲ 1
Digger20%▲ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth17%▼ 2
Michael13%
Disclosure Day8%▲ 1
Avengers: Doomsday8%
Fatherland4%▼ 1
The Social Reckoning4%
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey

The Odyssey46%
The Black Ball18%▼ 1
You Can See Everything15%▼ 7

38 more

Dune: Part Three9%
Wild Horse Nine2%
Digger1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

75%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything75%▲ 2
NAZA18%▲ 1
Once Upon a Time in Harlem4%▲ 2

8 more

American Doctor3%▼ 1
Musk2%
Nuisance Bear<1%
One in a Million<1%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party<1%
Tutu<1%
Tie<1%
14th<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey

The Odyssey85%
The Black Ball77%
Wild Horse Nine60%▲ 1

10 more

Dune: Part Three50%▲ 13
Digger43%▲ 28
You Can See Everything37%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary33%▼ 8
Fjord31%▼ 1
The Debut27%▼ 4
The Invite25%▲ 3
Ink21%
Club Kid18%▲ 3
Elsinore17%▲ 3

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

84%NAZA

NAZA84%
You Can See Everything79%▲ 2
Once Upon a Time in Harlem76%

7 more

American Doctor52%▲ 2
14th37%
One in a Million28%
Nuisance Bear25%▼ 4
Tutu21%▲ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party18%
Musk17%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%▲ 1
Disclosure Day71%▼ 3
The Black Ball71%▼ 9

10 more

Dune: Part Three63%▼ 7
Project Hail Mary60%▲ 1
Behemoth!28%▼ 17
Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 2
You Can See Everything13%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%
Whalefall7%▲ 2
The Social Reckoning6%
The Drama5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu3%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$25.4K

Today$1.3K

This week$25.4K

At stake$11.5K

In the news25 headlines today, 550 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this m

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.