Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $11.5K today · $173K traded · $48.7K at stake · prices read 10 min ago

The odds

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three87%▼ 2
You Can See Everything80%▲ 5
The Debut76%
Project Hail Mary73%▼ 4
The Invite64%▲ 2
I Play Rocky52%▼ 6
All of a Sudden38%
Fjord35%▼ 2
Obsession31%▼ 1

10 more

Elsinore31%▲ 2
The Adventures of Cliff Booth23%
Digger21%▲ 2
Behemoth!17%▲ 1
Michael12%▼ 1
Disclosure Day5%▼ 1
Avengers: Doomsday5%▼ 3
Fatherland4%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 97% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
The Odyssey	98%		96¢	99¢		$3.9K
La Bola Negra	96%	▲ 1	94¢	97¢	$1.03	$5.1K
Wild Horse Nine	92%	▲ 1	90¢	93¢	$1.08	$7K
Dune: Part Three	87%	▼ 2	86¢	87¢	$1.15	$19.7K
You Can See Everything	80%	▲ 5	79¢	80¢	$1.25	$37.9K
The Debut	76%		75¢	76¢	$1.32	$4.6K
Project Hail Mary	73%	▼ 4	72¢	74¢	$1.35	$4.3K
The Invite	64%	▲ 2	63¢	65¢	$1.54	$9.4K
I Play Rocky	52%	▼ 6	49¢	54¢	$1.85	$5K
All of a Sudden	38%		36¢	39¢	$2.56	$2.2K
Fjord	35%	▼ 2	34¢	36¢	$2.78	$5.2K
Obsession	31%	▼ 1	30¢	31¢	$3.23	$5.4K
Elsinore	31%	▲ 2	28¢	33¢	$3.03	$895
The Adventures of Cliff Booth	23%		22¢	24¢	$4.17	$7.8K
Digger	21%	▲ 2	20¢	21¢	$4.76	$21.3K
Behemoth!	17%	▲ 1	16¢	18¢	$5.56	$942
Michael	12%	▼ 1	11¢	13¢	$7.69	$2.3K
Disclosure Day	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.67	$12K
Avengers: Doomsday	5%	▼ 3	3¢	7¢	$14.71	$5.9K
Fatherland	4%		1¢	8¢	$13.33	$2.3K
The Drama	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.95	$747
The Social Reckoning	2%		1¢	4¢	$27.03	$8.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)You Can See EverythingKalshi 84%Polymarket 80%4 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%▼ 1
The Black Ball95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three84%▲ 1

49 more

You Can See Everything84%▲ 5
The Debut75%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary74%▼ 3
The Invite64%▲ 2
Artificial55%▼ 1
I Play Rocky53%▼ 5
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord35%
Obsession32%▼ 1
Elsinore32%▲ 2
Wildwood27%▲ 1
Digger24%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▲ 1
Club Kid21%▼ 1
Being Heumann18%
Possible Love17%
Behemoth14%▼ 1
Michael11%▼ 1
Primetime10%
Josephine9%▲ 2
Ink8%
Sense and Sensibility6%
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother5%▼ 1
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
Misty Green4%
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Minotaur4%▼ 1
The Whisper Man4%
Clarissa4%
Disclosure Day3%
Werwulf3%
Parallel Tales3%
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Cry to Heaven2%▼ 1
Hope2%
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew1%▼ 1
The Social Reckoning1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Picture Nominations

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Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

50%The Odyssey

The Odyssey50%▲ 2
You Can See Everything25%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%▲ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

89%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball89%▼ 1
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut76%
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 569%▼ 11

8 more

By Any Means - By Any Means66%
When I'm Home - The Odyssey56%▲ 14
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 240%▲ 16
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad37%▲ 2
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk32%▲ 4
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!11%▼ 21
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn6%▲ 5
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

90%Matt Damon

Matt Damon90%▼ 1
John Malkovich88%▲ 1
Andrew Scott85%

16 more

Tom Cruise60%▲ 11
Anthony Ippolito49%▲ 2
John Turturro46%▼ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson35%▼ 9
Sebastian Stan18%▼ 1
Jaafar Jackson18%
Pedro Pascal17%▲ 1
Timothée Chalamet13%▲ 2
Sam Rockwell6%
Josh O'Connor6%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%
Javier Bardem5%▲ 1
Brad Pitt4%▼ 1
Robert Aramayo2%▼ 1
Jeremy Strong2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%▼ 1
Sam Rockwell77%▲ 10

23 more

John Leguizamo61%▲ 6
Guitarricadelafuente55%▼ 17
Edward Norton48%▼ 9
Robert Pattinson30%
Steve Buscemi21%▼ 1
Colman Domingo18%▼ 7
Riz Ahmed18%
John Goodman13%
Skyler Gisondo9%
James Ortiz7%
Miles Teller6%
Channing Tatum6%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas6%
Guy Pearce6%
Himesh Patel6%▲ 1
Jeremy Strong5%▼ 6
Adam Scott5%
Michael Fassbender4%▼ 9
Daniel Craig4%
Charles Melton3%▲ 1
Tom Holland3%
Jesse Plemons3%
Robert De Niro3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

89%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway89%▲ 1
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton72%▲ 3

15 more

Tao Okamoto64%▼ 1
Amanda Seyfried49%▲ 7
Kate O'Flynn38%▲ 1
Mariana di Girolamo29%▲ 1
Sandra Hüller27%▲ 2
Olivia Colman22%▼ 11
Merritt Wever18%
Parker Posey17%▼ 4
Gemma Chan13%▲ 3
Danielle Deadwyler12%▲ 4
Betty Gilpin7%▲ 1
Zendaya6%▼ 3
Isabella Rossellini5%▼ 1
Margaret Qualley4%▼ 1
Inde Navarrette3%▲ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey86%▲ 1
Digger76%▲ 14

8 more

Project Hail Mary69%▲ 6
Dune: Part Three62%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility50%▲ 21
Werwulf46%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth25%▲ 6
Wuthering Heights18%▲ 4
Backrooms18%
Wildwood4%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 6 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$173K

Today$11.5K

This week$42.1K

At stake$48.7K

In the news13 headlines today, 280 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions