Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $7K today · $687K traded · $298K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
The Black Ball95%
Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 1
Dune: Part Three84%▲ 2
You Can See Everything84%▲ 8
Project Hail Mary77%▼ 1
The Debut75%▼ 1
The Invite60%▲ 2
Artificial55%▼ 1
I Play Rocky48%▲ 8
All of a Sudden37%▲ 1
Fjord35%▼ 1

41 more

Obsession33%
Elsinore33%▲ 2
Wildwood30%▲ 11
Digger23%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▲ 3
Club Kid19%▼ 3
Being Heumann18%▲ 1
Possible Love17%
Behemoth16%▼ 1
Michael12%▲ 1
Primetime10%▼ 2
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother8%
Ink7%
Werwulf6%▲ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%▼ 3
Josephine6%▼ 2
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Cry to Heaven4%
Minotaur4%
The Drama4%▲ 1
1949 / Fatherland4%▼ 1
Paper Tiger4%▼ 1
The Whisper Man4%
Misty Green4%
Avengers: Doomsday3%
Parallel Tales3%
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%▲ 1
Clarissa3%
Disclosure Day3%
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%▲ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
I Love Boosters2%▼ 1
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%▼ 1
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew1%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 98% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Odyssey	98%		97¢	99¢	$1.01	163.8K
The Black Ball	95%		94¢	96¢	$1.04	24.8K
Wild Horse Nine	90%	▼ 1	89¢	91¢	$1.10	57.7K
Dune: Part Three	84%	▲ 2	83¢	84¢	$1.19	22.5K
You Can See Everything	84%	▲ 8	83¢	84¢	$1.19	131.4K
Project Hail Mary	77%	▼ 1	76¢	78¢	$1.28	181.4K
The Debut	75%	▼ 1	74¢	75¢	$1.33	16.2K
The Invite	60%	▲ 2	59¢	60¢	$1.67	42.7K
Artificial	55%	▼ 1	52¢	57¢	$1.75	26.2K
I Play Rocky	48%	▲ 8	47¢	48¢	$2.08	32.7K
All of a Sudden	37%	▲ 1	35¢	38¢	$2.63	18.8K
Fjord	35%	▼ 1	34¢	35¢	$2.86	45.9K
Obsession	33%		32¢	33¢	$3.03	107.3K
Elsinore	33%	▲ 2	31¢	34¢	$2.94	13.3K
Wildwood	30%	▲ 11	28¢	32¢	$3.13	6.2K
Digger	23%	▲ 1	22¢	23¢	$4.35	88.6K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	20%	▲ 3	19¢	20¢	$5.00	19.5K
Club Kid	19%	▼ 3	17¢	20¢	$5.00	32.8K
Being Heumann	18%	▲ 1	15¢	20¢	$5.00	15.4K
Possible Love	17%		15¢	19¢	$5.26	18.1K
Behemoth	16%	▼ 1	14¢	17¢	$5.88	18.1K
Michael	12%	▲ 1	11¢	12¢	$8.33	19.9K
Primetime	10%	▼ 2	8¢	12¢	$8.33	13.4K
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother	8%		6¢	9¢	$11.11	5.4K
Ink	7%		5¢	8¢	$12.50	20.5K
Werwulf	6%	▲ 1	5¢	7¢	$14.29	9.5K
Sense and Sensibility	6%	▼ 3	4¢	8¢	$12.50	9.3K
Josephine	6%	▼ 2	3¢	8¢	$12.50	17.1K
Saturn Return	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.67	10.6K
Cry to Heaven	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	6.6K
Minotaur	4%		3¢	5¢	$20.00	10.0K
The Drama	4%	▲ 1	1¢	6¢	$16.67	6.8K
1949 / Fatherland	4%	▼ 1	2¢	5¢	$20.00	6.9K
Paper Tiger	4%	▼ 1	3¢	4¢	$25.00	15.8K
The Whisper Man	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	226
Misty Green	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	20.00
Avengers: Doomsday	3%		2¢	4¢	$25.00	23.5K
Parallel Tales	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	2.0K
Rose	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	5.2K
The Uprising	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	918
Spider-Man: Brand New Day	3%	▲ 1	2¢	4¢	$25.00	12.2K
Clarissa	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	625
Disclosure Day	3%		2¢	3¢	$33.33	44.7K
The Death of Robin Hood	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	686
Backrooms	3%	▲ 1		5¢	$20.00	9.5K
The Entertainment System Is Down	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	5.4K
Hope	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	2.2K
I Love Boosters	2%	▼ 1	1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.5K
Jack of Spades	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	6.3K
Tony	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	4.1K
Bucking Fastard	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	1.1K
The Social Reckoning	1%	▼ 1		1¢	$100.00	32.4K
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew	1%	▼ 1		1¢	$100.00	29.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)Dune: Part ThreeKalshi 84%Polymarket 88%5 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%▼ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three88%▲ 4

18 more

You Can See Everything81%▲ 9
The Debut77%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary77%▼ 1
The Invite61%▲ 3
I Play Rocky43%▲ 3
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord36%▲ 1
Obsession31%▼ 3
Elsinore31%▼ 2
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%▲ 3
Digger19%▲ 1
Behemoth!18%▲ 3
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%▼ 2
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▼ 3

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Picture

Search ›

Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the OscarsVariety · 3 days agoThe Elizabeth Holmes doc "You Can See Everything" is almost certain to nail a best picture nomination at the Oscars. Here’s why it could win. Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Can Win Best Picture at the Oscars The word disruptor is a vividly…
‘You Can See Everything’ Sets Oscar Campaigns for Best Picture, Supporting Actress and More CategoriesVariety · 4 days agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains major spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. “You Can See Everything” may rewrite the rules of the Oscar season. Christopher Abbott, who also appears in the film as Holmes’…
Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Will Struggle To Enter The Oscars’ Best Picture RaceForbes · 3 days agoIts commercial success is matched by extraordinary reviews, putting the film in the conversation for a Best Picture nomination. But the bigger question is not whether You Can See Everything has the momentum to make history. It is whether…
Oscars odds: You Can See Everything enters Best Picture race at 16%Kalshi News · 4 days agoNathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim's film could become the first documentary nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. The critically acclaimed documentary You Can See Everything is generating Oscar buzz, with Kalshi traders giving it a 16%…
2027 Oscars: These are the top 10 best picture contenders right nowPress of Atlantic City · 5 days agoOscar season may still be months away, but the race for the 2027 Academy Awards is already taking shape. One of the biggest early contenders is Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’. Following his Best Picture and Best Director wins for…
Why ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win Best Picture at the Oscars - IMDbIMDb · 3 days agoWhy ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win Best Picture at the Oscars IMDb
'You Can 'You Can See Everything' Oscar Chances Are Real Everything' Oscar Chances On The RiseDeadline · 5 days agoSPOILER ALERT: The following article contains details about storylines and characters/actors in A24‘s documentary You Can See Everything. Ever since its super-secret onetime screening at the Telluride Film Festival over Labor Day weekend…
2027 Oscars Best Picture Predictions: Winner, Runner-Up And Other ContendersSlashFilm · 5 days agoChristopher Nolan's The Odyssey will undoubtedly be a 2027 Best Picture Oscar contender, but what other films could be up for the prize? Let's discuss. 2027 Oscars Best Picture Predictions: Winner, Runner-Up And Other Contenders Every…
5 Worst Sequels To Best Picture Oscar-Winning MoviesLooper · 5 days agoEven without glorious predecessors to compare them to, these sequels would still struggle immensely. They're deeply flawed productions whose problems go way deeper than not matching up to the legacy of best picture winners. These award…
Will Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s ‘You Can See Everything’ Score a Best Picture Nomination? Not If Oscar History Is Any Guide - IMDbIMDb · 3 days agoWill Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s ‘You Can See Everything’ Score a Best Picture Nomination? Not If Oscar History Is Any Guide IMDb
Screen Brasil Backs International Distribution of Oscar Hopeful ‘Gugu’s World’ and Gramado Winner ‘Our Secret’ (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 3 days agoThe Embratur and Projeto Paradiso initiative awards $15,000 per film to support theatrical releases in Spain, the U.S. and Canada, with a new funding round set for 2027 Screen Brasil, the leading initiative from Embratur and Projeto…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything29%▲ 7
La Bola Negra13%▼ 4

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 3
Digger3%▼ 1
Wild Horse Nine1%▼ 1
Artificial<1%
The Invite<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Drama<1%
The Debut<1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Behemoth!<1%
Josephine<1%
Tony<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
Elsinore<1%
Saturn Return<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

57%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan57%▼ 3
Lance Oppenheim12%▲ 8
Denis Villeneuve11%▼ 2

18 more

Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi11%▼ 4
Alejandro G. Iñárritu2%▼ 1
Martin McDonagh1%
Olivia Wilde1%
Aaron Sorkin1%
Cristian Mungiu1%
Steven Spielberg<1%
Jesse Eisenberg<1%
Andrew Haigh<1%
David Fincher<1%
Peter Farrelly<1%▼ 2
Ryusuke Hamaguchi<1%
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller<1%▼ 1
Jordan Firstman<1%
Bassam Tariq<1%
David O. Russell<1%▼ 1
Joel Coen<1%▼ 1
Mike Leigh<1%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations

96%The Black Ball

The Black Ball96%
The Odyssey88%▲ 11
Project Hail Mary68%▲ 4

8 more

Dune: Part Three64%▲ 2
Digger64%▲ 3
Werwulf47%▼ 5
Sense and Sensibility35%▼ 5
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 2
Backrooms17%▼ 1
Wuthering Heights5%▼ 8
Wildwood4%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
Dune: Part Three92%
Project Hail Mary67%▲ 5

6 more

Fatherland41%▼ 11
Digger28%▲ 3
Werwulf27%▼ 29
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Obsession14%▼ 2
Josephine12%▼ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Nominations

88%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything88%▲ 4
NAZA84%▼ 3
American Doctor62%▲ 3

7 more

Once Upon a Time in Harlem59%▼ 2
14th44%▼ 1
Nuisance Bear32%▼ 2
Musk30%▼ 23
One in a Million25%▼ 9
Tutu25%▼ 3
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party22%▼ 4

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner

42%John Malkovich

John Malkovich42%
Andrew Scott19%▲ 3
Matt Damon15%▼ 4

19 more

Tom Cruise12%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson3%
Timothée Chalamet2%
John Turturro2%
Ryan Gosling1%
Yura Borisov1%▲ 1
Jeremy Strong1%
Jaafar Jackson<1%
Anthony Ippolito<1%
Sebastian Stan<1%
Brad Pitt<1%
Pedro Pascal<1%
Adam Driver<1%
Javier Bardem<1%
Josh O'Connor<1%
Robert Aramayo<1%
Sam Rockwell<1%
Mahershala Ali<1%▼ 1
Guy Pearce<1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$687K (1,420,596 contracts)

Today$7K

This week$687K

At stake$298K

In the news42 headlines today, 362 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If The Odyssey has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.