Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $160 today · $42.4K traded · $22.8K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

88%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti88%
Andrew Garfield79%
Sam Rockwell76%
Guitarricadelafuente73%▲ 4
John Leguizamo63%▼ 5
Edward Norton58%▼ 1
Robert Pattinson30%
Colman Domingo24%
Riz Ahmed17%▼ 1
Steve Buscemi14%▼ 1
John Goodman11%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas9%▲ 1

15 more

Himesh Patel6%
Channing Tatum6%▲ 1
Tom Holland5%
Jeremy Strong5%
Skyler Gisondo5%▲ 1
Miles Teller4%
James Ortiz4%
Charles Melton4%
Jesse Plemons4%
Michael Fassbender4%
Daniel Craig4%
Robert DeNiro3%
Adam Scott3%
Guy Pearce2%
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)1%

How the odds have moved

Paul Giamatti: 88% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Paul Giamatti	88%		87¢	89¢	$1.12	6.3K
Andrew Garfield	79%		77¢	81¢	$1.23	2.0K
Sam Rockwell	76%		75¢	77¢	$1.30	5.2K
Guitarricadelafuente	73%	▲ 4	72¢	73¢	$1.37	3.9K
John Leguizamo	63%	▼ 5	60¢	65¢	$1.54	12.1K
Edward Norton	58%	▼ 1	57¢	59¢	$1.69	5.9K
Robert Pattinson	30%		29¢	30¢	$3.33	34.1K
Colman Domingo	24%		23¢	25¢	$4.00	8.7K
Riz Ahmed	17%	▼ 1	15¢	18¢	$5.56	10.7K
Steve Buscemi	14%	▼ 1	13¢	15¢	$6.67	6.8K
John Goodman	11%	▲ 1	7¢	14¢	$7.14	12.5K
Antonio Banderas	9%	▲ 1	8¢	10¢	$10.00	3.3K
Himesh Patel	6%		4¢	8¢	$12.50	2.3K
Channing Tatum	6%	▲ 1	1¢	10¢	$10.00	1.8K
Tom Holland	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	7.7K
Jeremy Strong	5%		3¢	7¢	$14.29	3.9K
Skyler Gisondo	5%	▲ 1	2¢	8¢	$12.50	1.0K
Miles Teller	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	1.1K
James Ortiz	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	1.9K
Charles Melton	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.4K
Jesse Plemons	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	967
Michael Fassbender	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.3K
Daniel Craig	4%		3¢	4¢	$25.00	710
Robert DeNiro	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	18.00
Adam Scott	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	15.00
Guy Pearce	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	5.7K
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)	1%			2¢	$50.00	586

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actor (2027)Sam RockwellKalshi 76%Polymarket 67%9 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

92%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti92%
Andrew Garfield78%▲ 1
Guitarricadelafuente73%▲ 4
John Leguizamo69%▼ 2

22 more

Sam Rockwell67%▼ 4
Edward Norton57%▼ 6
Robert Pattinson31%▲ 1
Colman Domingo25%▲ 2
Steve Buscemi20%▲ 1
Riz Ahmed18%▲ 1
John Goodman13%
Michael Fassbender12%▲ 6
Jeremy Strong10%▲ 4
Skyler Gisondo9%▲ 1
Miles Teller7%▲ 3
James Ortiz7%
Guy Pearce6%▲ 1
Antonio Banderas6%
Adam Scott5%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%▼ 1
Himesh Patel4%
Daniel Craig4%
Jesse Plemons3%
Tom Holland3%
Charles Melton3%
Robert De Niro3%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor

Search ›

This Is the Only Horror Movie to Ever Win Best Picture at the Academy Awardsvice · 6 h agoComing to you from around the world, VICE Digital’s team strives to capture the people at the heart of stories, and focus on the ideas, issues, and context that other outlets miss. Get unlimited access to everything VICE has to offer…
WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning ActorWrestling Inc. · 14 h agoFormer World Heavyweight and Undisputed Champion Drew McIntyre says this renowned actor wants to join forces with him in the WWE. WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning Actor Once he comes back, WWE…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 30 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 4 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
From ‘Hoop Dreams’ to ‘Flee’: The 20 Documentaries That Deserved a Best Picture Oscar NominationVariety · 8 h agoIn nearly a century of Oscars, not a single documentary has been nominated for best picture. But that shouldn’t be the case. To celebrate this potential historic nomination, Variety is ranking the 20 films that should have received a best…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 39 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 33 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 40 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 35 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 22 h agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Tom Cruise punched Jack Nicholson after 'A Few Good Men' courtroom scene, co-star saysFox News · 2 days agoThe former "Dancing with the Stars" co-host nearly crushed the actor with a motorcycle before he saved the day. Kevin Pollak is opening up about the time Tom Cruise punched Jack Nicholson after a tense moment while filming "A Few Good…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 3 days agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey

The Odyssey48%▲ 4
You Can See Everything28%▲ 1
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything80%▼ 7
Once Upon a Time in Harlem67%▲ 5

7 more

American Doctor63%
14th39%
Nuisance Bear37%▲ 7
One in a Million31%▲ 3
Musk26%
Tutu23%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey

The Odyssey99%▲ 1
The Black Ball95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

Dune: Part Three83%
You Can See Everything81%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
The Debut74%
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky58%▲ 1
Artificial55%▼ 1
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
Fjord35%
Obsession34%▲ 1
Elsinore30%
Wildwood28%▲ 2
Club Kid24%▲ 2
Digger23%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%
Being Heumann18%
Possible Love17%▲ 1
Behemoth16%
Michael12%
Primetime10%
Ink8%▲ 2
Josephine7%▲ 1
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Misty Green4%▲ 1
The Drama4%
1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
Paper Tiger4%
Minotaur4%▼ 1
Clarissa4%
Disclosure Day3%▲ 1
Werwulf3%▼ 3
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
Parallel Tales3%
The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%▲ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
Dune: Part Three79%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary64%

6 more

Fatherland45%
Werwulf44%
Digger38%▲ 10
Obsession16%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

97%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan97%
Javier Calvo89%
Martin McDonagh71%▲ 1

24 more

Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
Denis Villeneuve58%▲ 1
Olivia Wilde51%▲ 1
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
Cristian Mungiu28%
Jesse Eisenberg24%
Phil Lord12%
Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 1
Curry Barker10%▼ 1
Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
David Fincher10%▲ 2
Paweł Pawlikowski8%
Tony Gilroy8%
Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
Na Hong-jin4%
Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey

The Odyssey90%▲ 12
Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
The Black Ball64%▼ 6

9 more

Sense and Sensibility63%▲ 2
I Love Boosters50%▲ 1
Werwulf49%▲ 3
Wuthering Heights44%▲ 11
The Devil Wears Prada 243%▲ 5
Michael40%▲ 2
Digger28%▲ 4
Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$42.4K (141,663 contracts)

Today$160

This week$3.2K

At stake$22.8K

In the news11 headlines today, 313 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If John Goodman has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions