Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $5.9K today · $60.8K traded · $34K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

95%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan95%▼ 3
Javier Calvo89%
Martin McDonagh70%▼ 1
Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
Denis Villeneuve56%▼ 1
Olivia Wilde53%▲ 2
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
Cristian Mungiu28%
Jesse Eisenberg24%▲ 1
Phil Lord12%▲ 1
Alejandro González Iñárritu12%
Curry Barker10%▲ 1

15 more

Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
David Fincher9%▲ 2
Paweł Pawlikowski8%
Tony Gilroy8%
Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
Mike Leigh5%▼ 8
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
Na Hong-jin4%▼ 1
Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

How the odds have moved

Christopher Nolan: 95% on Oct 20, 95% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Christopher Nolan	95%	▼ 3	93¢	96¢	$1.04	18.0K
Javier Calvo	89%		87¢	90¢	$1.11	3.3K
Martin McDonagh	70%	▼ 1	69¢	71¢	$1.41	12.2K
Nathan Fielder	65%	▲ 1	64¢	65¢	$1.54	16.3K
Denis Villeneuve	56%	▼ 1	56¢	57¢	$1.75	12.0K
Olivia Wilde	53%	▲ 2	51¢	54¢	$1.85	13.6K
Ryusuke Hamaguchi	33%		28¢	38¢	$2.63	2.6K
Cristian Mungiu	28%		27¢	29¢	$3.45	4.7K
Jesse Eisenberg	24%	▲ 1	23¢	24¢	$4.17	6.6K
Phil Lord	12%	▲ 1	9¢	15¢	$6.67	3.6K
Alejandro González Iñárritu	12%		9¢	14¢	$7.14	10.2K
Curry Barker	10%	▲ 1	8¢	12¢	$8.33	8.7K
Christopher Miller	10%	▲ 1	7¢	12¢	$8.33	2.1K
David Fincher	9%	▲ 2	6¢	12¢	$8.33	3.4K
Paweł Pawlikowski	8%		5¢	11¢	$9.09	1.3K
Tony Gilroy	8%		3¢	12¢	$8.33	1.8K
Steven Spielberg	6%	▼ 1	4¢	8¢	$12.50	8.5K
Mike Leigh	5%	▼ 8	6¢	17¢	$5.88	1.2K
Andrew Haigh	5%		1¢	8¢	$12.50	23.00
Joel Coen	5%		3¢	6¢	$16.67	2.7K
Ben Affleck	5%	▲ 2	2¢	7¢	$14.29	147
Na Hong-jin	4%	▼ 1	2¢	6¢	$16.67	2.0K
Greta Gerwig	4%			8¢	$12.50	2.5K
Beth de Araujo	4%			7¢	$14.29	405
Danny Boyle	3%			6¢	$16.67	2.2K
Janus Metz Pedersen	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	22.00
James Ashcroft	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	27.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)Olivia WildeKalshi 53%Polymarket 48%5 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

97%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan97%
Javier Calvo87%▲ 1
Javier Ambrossi80%▲ 1
Martin McDonagh73%▼ 3

25 more

Nathan Fielder64%▲ 1
Denis Villeneuve59%▲ 7
Olivia Wilde48%
Cristian Mungiu32%▲ 10
Ryusuke Hamaguchi28%
Jesse Eisenberg23%▼ 2
Alejandro González Iñárritu14%▲ 3
Curry Barker11%
Christopher Miller10%
David Fincher10%▼ 4
Paweł Pawlikowski10%
Phil Lord9%
Peter Farrelly8%▲ 1
Mike Leigh6%
Danny Boyle6%
Andrew Haigh6%▲ 1
Beth de Araujo6%
Na Hong-jin6%
Tony Gilroy5%
Ben Affleck5%
Joel Coen4%
Aaron Sorkin4%
Steven Spielberg3%▼ 1
Janus Metz Pedersen3%▼ 2
James Ashcroft3%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director

Search ›

WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning ActorWrestling Inc. · 7 h agoFormer World Heavyweight and Undisputed Champion Drew McIntyre says this renowned actor wants to join forces with him in the WWE. WWE's Drew McIntyre Teases On-Screen Partnership With Academy Award Winning Actor Once he comes back, WWE…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 23 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
We Need to Bully the Academy Into Nominating Olivia Wilde for Best Director for ‘The Invite’Decider · 37 h agoStream It Or Skip It: ‘Holiday Touchdown: A Bears Love Story’ on Hallmark, Another Solid Christmas Collab Between the NFL and Hallmark Where Was the ‘Love Of Your Life’ Movie Filmed? Discover the Filming Locations for Margaret Qualley’s…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 32 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 26 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 33 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 28 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 15 h agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 2 days agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Best Director Oscars 2027 Contenders & Predictions: Christopher Nolan, Martin McDonagh, Olivia Wilde In The MixThe Playlist · 4 days agoJack Lowden, Callum Turner, & Josh O’Connor Among James Bond Finalists; Screen Tests Start This Weekend ‘Carrie’ Renewed For Season 2 At Prime Video As Mike Flanagan & Stephen King Plan To Go Beyond Prom Night ‘Poison Ivy’: ‘The Penguin’…

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

47%The Odyssey

The Odyssey47%▲ 3
You Can See Everything28%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

38 more

Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything81%▼ 3
Once Upon a Time in Harlem64%▲ 3

7 more

American Doctor63%
14th39%
Nuisance Bear37%▲ 3
One in a Million33%▲ 5
Musk26%
Tutu23%▼ 2
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
Dune: Part Three75%▼ 17
Project Hail Mary62%▼ 2

6 more

Fatherland45%
Digger35%▲ 6
Werwulf34%▼ 12
Obsession19%▲ 3
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky60%▲ 4
All of a Sudden39%▲ 1
Fjord36%▲ 2
Obsession31%▼ 2
Elsinore31%▲ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth24%▲ 1
Behemoth!22%▲ 6
Digger19%
Michael13%▲ 2
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey

The Odyssey90%▲ 12
Dune: Part Three82%▲ 11
The Black Ball72%▲ 1

9 more

Sense and Sensibility57%▼ 6
I Love Boosters56%▲ 3
Werwulf48%▲ 1
Wuthering Heights46%▲ 14
The Devil Wears Prada 241%
Michael35%▼ 4
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger26%▼ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%
A Derailment56%▲ 14
One Last Order53%

7 more

Oh Whale53%▲ 9
Listen46%▲ 4
Water Cooler43%▲ 12
The Tuners37%
We're Fine31%▲ 4
A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil24%▼ 1
A Wolf in the Suburbs14%▼ 4

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$60.8K (140,010 contracts)

Today$5.9K

This week$10.8K

At stake$34K

In the news14 headlines today, 311 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Phil Lord has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions