Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $1.6K today · $21.2K traded · $5.9K at stake · prices read 18 min ago

The odds

96%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan96%▼ 1
Javier Calvo86%▼ 1
Javier Ambrossi82%▼ 1
Martin McDonagh74%▼ 7
Nathan Fielder62%▼ 7
Olivia Wilde58%▲ 11
Denis Villeneuve54%▲ 8
Cristian Mungiu28%▲ 1
Peter Farrelly27%▲ 5
Ryusuke Hamaguchi26%▲ 1
Jesse Eisenberg22%▲ 1
Mike Leigh20%▲ 13

17 more

Alejandro González Iñárritu20%▲ 4
David Fincher14%▼ 1
Christopher Miller13%
Curry Barker11%▲ 4
Paweł Pawlikowski9%▼ 3
Phil Lord9%
Ben Affleck7%▲ 1
Na Hong-jin7%▲ 1
Janus Metz Pedersen7%
Tony Gilroy6%▼ 2
Danny Boyle6%▼ 1
Andrew Haigh6%▼ 1
Beth de Araujo6%
Joel Coen5%▼ 1
Aaron Sorkin5%▼ 1
Steven Spielberg4%
James Ashcroft3%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Christopher Nolan	96%	▼ 1	96¢	96¢	$1.04	$1.7K
Javier Calvo	86%	▼ 1	83¢	89¢	$1.12	$534
Javier Ambrossi	82%	▼ 1	78¢	86¢	$1.16	$603
Martin McDonagh	74%	▼ 7	72¢	76¢	$1.32	$877
Nathan Fielder	62%	▼ 7	51¢	73¢	$1.37	$2.5K
Olivia Wilde	58%	▲ 11	54¢	62¢	$1.61	$2.1K
Denis Villeneuve	54%	▲ 8	42¢	66¢	$1.52	$80
Cristian Mungiu	28%	▲ 1	27¢	28¢	$3.57	$58
Peter Farrelly	27%	▲ 5	23¢	31¢	$3.23	$44
Ryusuke Hamaguchi	26%	▲ 1	22¢	29¢	$3.45
Jesse Eisenberg	22%	▲ 1	18¢	25¢	$4.00	$523
Mike Leigh	20%	▲ 13	17¢	23¢	$4.35	$19
Alejandro González Iñárritu	20%	▲ 4	15¢	24¢	$4.17	$491
David Fincher	14%	▼ 1	10¢	19¢	$5.26	$60
Christopher Miller	13%		12¢	14¢	$7.14	$1.8K
Curry Barker	11%	▲ 4	8¢	15¢	$6.58	$89
Paweł Pawlikowski	9%	▼ 3	7¢	11¢	$9.09	$334
Phil Lord	9%		6¢	11¢	$8.93	$1.4K
Ben Affleck	7%	▲ 1	6¢	8¢	$12.50	$1.9K
Na Hong-jin	7%	▲ 1	5¢	8¢	$12.50	$1K
Janus Metz Pedersen	7%		5¢	8¢	$12.50	$464
Tony Gilroy	6%	▼ 2	3¢	8¢	$12.50	$589
Danny Boyle	6%	▼ 1	4¢	7¢	$14.29	$690
Andrew Haigh	6%	▼ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	$161
Beth de Araujo	6%		4¢	7¢	$14.29	$851
Joel Coen	5%	▼ 1	3¢	6¢	$16.67	$436
Aaron Sorkin	5%	▼ 1	3¢	6¢	$16.67	$223
Steven Spielberg	4%		2¢	5¢	$19.23	$1.3K
James Ashcroft	3%		1¢	6¢	$18.18	$392

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)Mike LeighKalshi 9%Polymarket 20%12 pts apart

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

95%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan95%▼ 1
Javier Calvo92%▼ 1
Martin McDonagh74%▲ 3
Denis Villeneuve59%▼ 1

23 more

Nathan Fielder58%▼ 13
Olivia Wilde57%▲ 1
Cristian Mungiu29%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi28%▲ 1
Jesse Eisenberg23%
Phil Lord17%▲ 6
Alejandro González Iñárritu15%▲ 1
Curry Barker13%▲ 2
David Fincher10%▼ 9
Mike Leigh9%▼ 4
Christopher Miller8%▲ 1
Steven Spielberg7%▼ 1
Paweł Pawlikowski7%▲ 3
Joel Coen5%▼ 1
Tony Gilroy5%▼ 2
Danny Boyle4%
Andrew Haigh4%
Na Hong-jin4%
Greta Gerwig4%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
Ben Affleck3%
Beth de Araujo3%
James Ashcroft2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director Nominations

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey

The Odyssey46%▲ 1
The Black Ball18%
You Can See Everything16%▼ 7

38 more

Dune: Part Three9%
Wild Horse Nine2%
Digger1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

19 more

Dune: Part Three87%▲ 1
The Debut80%▼ 3
Project Hail Mary77%▼ 3
You Can See Everything71%▲ 5
The Invite59%
Fjord39%
All of a Sudden36%
Obsession34%
I Play Rocky31%▼ 8
Elsinore25%▼ 9
Behemoth!22%▲ 3
Digger20%▲ 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▲ 2
Michael13%▼ 1
Disclosure Day8%▼ 1
Avengers: Doomsday8%▼ 1
Fatherland4%
The Social Reckoning4%▼ 1
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%▲ 1
You Can See Everything80%▲ 6
Once Upon a Time in Harlem76%

7 more

American Doctor52%▲ 1
14th38%▲ 1
One in a Million28%▲ 1
Nuisance Bear23%▼ 5
Tutu21%▲ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party18%▲ 1
Musk18%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey

The Odyssey85%
The Black Ball77%
Wild Horse Nine62%▲ 2

10 more

Dune: Part Three47%▼ 3
You Can See Everything40%
Project Hail Mary39%▲ 5
Fjord31%▼ 3
The Debut27%▼ 3
The Invite26%▲ 5
Elsinore21%▲ 3
Ink21%
Club Kid19%▼ 3
Digger14%▼ 2

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%▲ 1
The Black Ball72%▼ 6
Dune: Part Three65%▼ 5

10 more

Disclosure Day65%▼ 4
Project Hail Mary59%▼ 1
You Can See Everything41%
Behemoth!33%▼ 14
Wild Horse Nine23%▼ 3
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%▲ 1
Whalefall7%▲ 3
The Social Reckoning6%
The Drama5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu3%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

93%Matt Damon

Matt Damon93%
John Malkovich88%
Andrew Scott86%▼ 1

16 more

Tom Cruise55%▼ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▲ 3
John Turturro44%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson43%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito27%▼ 10
Pedro Pascal19%▲ 1
Sebastian Stan17%
Jaafar Jackson17%
Timothée Chalamet10%▼ 12
Josh O'Connor7%▲ 2
Adam Driver5%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell5%
Brad Pitt5%
Javier Bardem4%
Robert Aramayo4%
Jeremy Strong1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesMar 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$21.2K

Today$1.6K

This week$21.2K

At stake$5.9K

In the news29 headlines today, 535 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.