Oscar nominees: Best Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $927 today · $196K traded · $90.7K at stake · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

93%Matt Damon

Matt Damon93%
John Malkovich91%▼ 1
Andrew Scott84%▲ 1
Anthony Ippolito52%▲ 3
Tom Cruise51%▼ 3
Ryan Gosling47%▲ 1
John Turturro46%▲ 2
Robert Pattinson46%▲ 3
Yura Borisov22%
Sebastian Stan16%
Pedro Pascal14%
Timothée Chalamet14%▼ 1

22 more

Jaafar Jackson13%▼ 2
Mahershala Ali9%
Tom Holland7%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%▲ 3
Sam Rockwell5%▲ 1
Andrew Garfield5%▼ 1
Dominic Sessa5%
Robert Aramayo4%▼ 4
Javier Bardem4%▼ 1
Adam Scott4%▼ 1
Josh O'Connor4%▲ 1
Channing Tatum4%▲ 2
Jeremy Strong4%
Keanu Reeves3%
Brad Pitt3%
Guy Pearce3%
Jeremy Allen White3%
Robert DeNiro3%
Sacha Baron Cohen3%
Hanns Zischler2%
Ethan Hawke2%
Charles Melton1%

How the odds have moved

Matt Damon: 92% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Matt Damon	93%		92¢	93¢	$1.08	35.4K
John Malkovich	91%	▼ 1	88¢	93¢	$1.08	18.2K
Andrew Scott	84%	▲ 1	83¢	85¢	$1.18	29.0K
Anthony Ippolito	52%	▲ 3	50¢	53¢	$1.89	14.7K
Tom Cruise	51%	▼ 3	50¢	52¢	$1.92	72.9K
Ryan Gosling	47%	▲ 1	46¢	48¢	$2.08	59.2K
John Turturro	46%	▲ 2	44¢	48¢	$2.08	12.9K
Robert Pattinson	46%	▲ 3	45¢	46¢	$2.17	47.5K
Yura Borisov	22%		18¢	25¢	$4.00	3.7K
Sebastian Stan	16%		15¢	16¢	$6.25	18.0K
Pedro Pascal	14%		14¢	15¢	$6.67	42.0K
Timothée Chalamet	14%	▼ 1	13¢	15¢	$6.67	27.0K
Jaafar Jackson	13%	▼ 2	11¢	15¢	$6.67	37.6K
Mahershala Ali	9%		6¢	11¢	$9.09	4.1K
Tom Holland	7%	▲ 1	2¢	12¢	$8.33	2.1K
Adam Driver	5%	▲ 3	1¢	9¢	$11.11	7.0K
Sam Rockwell	5%	▲ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.67	2.7K
Andrew Garfield	5%	▼ 1	4¢	6¢	$16.67	31.3K
Dominic Sessa	5%		2¢	7¢	$14.29	3.3K
Robert Aramayo	4%	▼ 4	2¢	6¢	$16.67	4.3K
Javier Bardem	4%	▼ 1	2¢	6¢	$16.67	3.3K
Adam Scott	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	2.1K
Josh O'Connor	4%	▲ 1	1¢	6¢	$16.67	2.1K
Channing Tatum	4%	▲ 2	2¢	5¢	$20.00	3.2K
Jeremy Strong	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	17.0K
Keanu Reeves	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	1.9K
Brad Pitt	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	4.4K
Guy Pearce	3%			6¢	$16.67	176
Jeremy Allen White	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	2.2K
Robert DeNiro	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	204
Sacha Baron Cohen	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	514
Hanns Zischler	2%		1¢	3¢	$33.33	110
Ethan Hawke	2%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	2.1K
Charles Melton	1%			1¢	$100.00	1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Actor (2027)Jaafar JacksonKalshi 13%Polymarket 18%4 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

92%Matt Damon

Matt Damon92%
John Malkovich87%▼ 2
Andrew Scott85%
Tom Cruise50%▼ 2

15 more

Anthony Ippolito48%▲ 6
John Turturro47%▲ 2
Ryan Gosling45%▲ 3
Robert Pattinson44%▲ 3
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 1
Pedro Pascal16%
Timothée Chalamet11%
Sam Rockwell6%▼ 1
Josh O'Connor6%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%
Brad Pitt5%
Javier Bardem4%▼ 1
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actor

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

47%The Odyssey

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You Can See Everything28%▼ 3
The Black Ball13%

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Dune: Part Three6%
Digger1%
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The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

85%NAZA

NAZA85%
You Can See Everything82%▼ 3
Once Upon a Time in Harlem66%▲ 4

7 more

American Doctor63%
14th39%
Nuisance Bear37%▲ 3
One in a Million33%▲ 5
Musk26%
Tutu23%▼ 2
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%
Dune: Part Three77%▼ 8
Project Hail Mary64%▲ 1

6 more

Fatherland45%
Werwulf35%▼ 13
Digger35%▲ 5
Obsession17%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%

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Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey

The Odyssey90%▲ 12
Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
The Black Ball67%▼ 4

9 more

Sense and Sensibility57%▼ 5
The Devil Wears Prada 252%▲ 11
I Love Boosters50%▼ 2
Werwulf48%▲ 1
Wuthering Heights46%▲ 13
Michael36%▲ 2
Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
Digger26%▼ 7
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey

The Odyssey99%▲ 1
The Black Ball94%▼ 2
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

Dune: Part Three83%▼ 1
You Can See Everything79%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
The Debut74%
The Invite62%▲ 2
I Play Rocky57%▲ 1
Artificial56%▲ 2
All of a Sudden37%
Fjord35%
Obsession33%
Elsinore30%▲ 1
Wildwood26%▼ 4
Digger23%
Club Kid22%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1
Being Heumann18%
Behemoth16%
Possible Love16%
Michael12%
Primetime10%
Josephine8%▲ 2
Ink8%▲ 2
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
Sense and Sensibility6%
Saturn Return5%
Werwulf4%▼ 2
Minotaur4%
Misty Green4%▲ 1
The Drama4%
Paper Tiger4%
The Whisper Man4%
Clarissa4%▲ 1
Disclosure Day3%
Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
Parallel Tales3%
1949 / Fatherland3%
Rose3%
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
The Death of Robin Hood3%
Backrooms3%▲ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%
Hope2%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
I Love Boosters2%
Jack of Spades2%
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

95%Christopher Nolan

Christopher Nolan95%▼ 3
Javier Calvo89%
Martin McDonagh70%▼ 1

24 more

Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
Denis Villeneuve56%▼ 1
Olivia Wilde52%▲ 1
Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
Cristian Mungiu28%
Jesse Eisenberg24%▲ 1
Phil Lord12%▲ 1
Alejandro González Iñárritu12%
Curry Barker10%▲ 1
Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
David Fincher9%▲ 2
Paweł Pawlikowski8%
Tony Gilroy8%
Steven Spielberg7%
Mike Leigh5%▼ 8
Andrew Haigh5%
Joel Coen5%
Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
Na Hong-jin4%▼ 1
Greta Gerwig4%
Beth de Araujo4%
Danny Boyle3%
Janus Metz Pedersen3%
James Ashcroft2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$196K (513,403 contracts)

Today$927

This week$3.1K

At stake$90.7K

In the news12 headlines today, 311 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If John Malkovich has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions