Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $71 today · $16.4K traded · $11.3K at stake · prices read 64 min ago

The odds

27%Paul Giamatti

Paul Giamatti27%▼ 1
Andrew Garfield24%
Guitarricadelafuente12%▲ 1
John Leguizamo11%▲ 1
Sam Rockwell6%
Robert Pattinson5%
John Goodman2%
Jeremy Strong1%
Riz Ahmed1%
Edward Norton1%
Skyler Gisondo1%
Channing Tatum<1%

15 more

Colman Domingo<1%
Charles Melton<1%
Miles Teller<1%
Jesse Plemons<1%
Tom Holland<1%
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)<1%
Michael Fassbender<1%
Steve Buscemi<1%
Daniel Craig<1%
Robert De Niro<1%
Adam Scott<1%
Himesh Patel<1%
Tie<1%
James Ortiz<1%
Guy Pearce<1%

How the odds have moved

Paul Giamatti: 20% on Oct 20, 27% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Paul Giamatti	27%	▼ 1	26¢	30¢	$3.33	24.4K
Andrew Garfield	24%		24¢	26¢	$3.85	12.7K
Guitarricadelafuente	12%	▲ 1	11¢	14¢	$7.14	8.8K
John Leguizamo	11%	▲ 1	10¢	12¢	$8.33	15.7K
Sam Rockwell	6%		6¢	7¢	$14.29	13.6K
Robert Pattinson	5%		4¢	6¢	$16.67	24.1K
John Goodman	2%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	12.9K
Jeremy Strong	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	15.4K
Riz Ahmed	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	9.6K
Edward Norton	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	13.0K
Skyler Gisondo	1%		1¢	2¢	$50.00	11.0K
Channing Tatum	<1%			1¢	$100.00	6.7K
Colman Domingo	<1%			1¢	$100.00	4.7K
Charles Melton	<1%			1¢	$100.00	700
Miles Teller	<1%			1¢	$100.00	5.1K
Jesse Plemons	<1%			1¢	$100.00	139
Tom Holland	<1%			1¢	$100.00	6.3K
Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)	<1%			1¢	$100.00	156
Michael Fassbender	<1%			1¢	$100.00	138
Steve Buscemi	<1%			1¢	$100.00	1.3K
Daniel Craig	<1%			1¢	$100.00	219
Robert De Niro	<1%			1¢	$100.00	128
Adam Scott	<1%			1¢	$100.00	637
Himesh Patel	<1%			1¢	$100.00	505
Tie	<1%			1¢	$100.00	5.4K
James Ortiz	<1%			1¢	$100.00	2.1K
Guy Pearce	<1%			1¢	$100.00	3.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor (2027)Andrew GarfieldKalshi 24%Polymarket 32%8 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner

32%Andrew Garfield

Andrew Garfield32%▲ 2
Paul Giamatti27%▼ 1
Guitarricadelafuente10%
Steve Buscemi6%▲ 1

22 more

Robert Pattinson6%
Sam Rockwell4%▼ 3
Jesse Plemons4%▲ 2
John Leguizamo4%
John Goodman2%▼ 2
Edward Norton2%
Channing Tatum2%▲ 1
Miles Teller1%▼ 1
Guy Pearce1%
Tom Holland1%
Daniel Craig1%
Riz Ahmed1%
Michael Fassbender1%
Colman Domingo1%▼ 2
Robert De Niro1%
Himesh Patel1%
Adam Scott1%
Jeremy Strong1%
Skyler Gisondo1%
Travis Scott<1%
Charles Melton<1%
James Ortiz<1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

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Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

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Project Hail Mary61%▼ 4

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Fatherland45%
Digger35%▲ 8
Werwulf35%▼ 3
Obsession19%▲ 1
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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

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La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

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Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut76%▼ 1
You Can See Everything75%▼ 1
The Invite62%▲ 1
I Play Rocky59%▲ 11
All of a Sudden38%▼ 1
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Obsession31%▼ 1
Elsinore29%▼ 1
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The Drama3%
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Water Cooler48%▲ 21
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Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton74%▲ 1

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Tao Okamoto61%▼ 1
Amanda Seyfried43%▼ 3
Kate O'Flynn41%
Olivia Colman32%
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Gemma Chan9%▼ 5
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Danielle Deadwyler8%▼ 3
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Margaret Qualley5%▲ 1
Inde Navarrette1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$16.4K (198,755 contracts)

Today$71

This week$1.6K

At stake$11.3K

In the news18 headlines today, 314 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If John Goodman has won Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions