Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $23 today · $56.2K traded · $8.6K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

29%Andrew Garfield
  • Andrew Garfield29%▼ 1
  • Paul Giamatti26%▼ 1
  • Guitarricadelafuente10%
  • Steve Buscemi7%▲ 3
  • Robert Pattinson6%▼ 1
  • Jesse Plemons5%▲ 3
  • Sam Rockwell4%▼ 3
  • John Goodman4%▲ 2
  • John Leguizamo4%
  • Edward Norton2%
  • Miles Teller1%
  • Channing Tatum1%
14 more
  • Riz Ahmed1%
  • Tom Holland1%
  • Guy Pearce1%
  • Daniel Craig1%
  • Michael Fassbender1%
  • Colman Domingo1%▼ 1
  • Robert De Niro1%
  • Himesh Patel1%
  • Adam Scott1%
  • Skyler Gisondo1%
  • Jeremy Strong<1%
  • Charles Melton<1%
  • James Ortiz<1%
  • Travis Scott<1%

How the odds have moved

Andrew Garfield: 30% on Oct 20, 29% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Andrew Garfield 29% ▼ 1 29¢ 31¢ $3.23 $4.3K
Paul Giamatti 26% ▼ 1 26¢ 28¢ $3.57 $15.1K
Guitarricadelafuente 10% 10¢ 10¢ $9.80 $901
Steve Buscemi 7% ▲ 3 3¢ 14¢ $7.19 $185
Robert Pattinson 6% ▼ 1 6¢ 8¢ $13.33 $20.8K
Jesse Plemons 5% ▲ 3 0¢ 11¢ $9.35 $175
Sam Rockwell 4% ▼ 3 3¢ 8¢ $12.99 $6.6K
John Goodman 4% ▲ 2 1¢ 8¢ $13.16 $1.7K
John Leguizamo 4% 2¢ 7¢ $14.49 $477
Edward Norton 2% 1¢ 3¢ $38.46 $926
Miles Teller 1% 1¢ 3¢ $40.00 $182
Channing Tatum 1% 1¢ 2¢ $47.62 $246
Riz Ahmed 1% 1¢ 2¢ $58.82 $182
Tom Holland 1% 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 $924
Guy Pearce 1% 1¢ 2¢ $62.50 $714
Daniel Craig 1% 1¢ 2¢ $66.67 $156
Michael Fassbender 1% 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 $292
Colman Domingo 1% ▼ 1 1¢ 1¢ $76.92 $296
Robert De Niro 1% 0¢ 2¢ $58.82 $154
Himesh Patel 1% 1¢ 1¢ $168
Adam Scott 1% 1¢ 1¢ $181
Skyler Gisondo 1% 0¢ 1¢ $100.00 $60
Jeremy Strong <1% 0¢ 1¢ $158
Charles Melton <1% 0¢ 0¢ $872
James Ortiz <1% 0¢ 0¢ $176
Travis Scott <1% 0¢ 0¢ $361

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar winner: Best Supporting Actor (2027)

29%Paul Giamatti
  • Paul Giamatti29%▲ 2
  • Andrew Garfield24%▼ 1
  • Guitarricadelafuente11%▼ 1
  • John Leguizamo10%▲ 1
23 more
  • Sam Rockwell6%
  • Robert Pattinson4%▼ 2
  • John Goodman3%▲ 1
  • Jeremy Strong1%
  • Riz Ahmed1%
  • Edward Norton1%▼ 1
  • Skyler Gisondo1%
  • Channing Tatum<1%
  • Colman Domingo<1%
  • Charles Melton<1%
  • Miles Teller<1%
  • Jesse Plemons<1%
  • Tom Holland<1%
  • Jacques Berman Webster II (Travis Scott)<1%
  • Michael Fassbender<1%
  • Steve Buscemi<1%
  • Daniel Craig<1%
  • Robert De Niro<1%
  • Adam Scott<1%
  • Himesh Patel<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • James Ortiz<1%
  • Guy Pearce<1%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $61 today · $16.5K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actor

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything27%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey99%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball95%
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%
  • You Can See Everything80%▲ 1
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 2
  • I Play Rocky57%
  • Artificial56%
  • All of a Sudden37%
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession34%▲ 1
  • Elsinore30%▲ 3
  • Wildwood26%▼ 1
  • Digger23%
  • Club Kid22%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%▼ 1
  • Being Heumann18%
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth16%
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Josephine7%▲ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 1
  • Saturn Return5%
  • Minotaur4%
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • Clarissa4%
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man3%
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

97%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan97%
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Martin McDonagh71%
24 more
  • Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve58%▲ 2
  • Olivia Wilde51%▲ 1
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
  • Cristian Mungiu28%
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%
  • Phil Lord12%
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 1
  • Curry Barker10%
  • Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
  • David Fincher9%▲ 2
  • Paweł Pawlikowski8%
  • Tony Gilroy8%
  • Steven Spielberg6%▼ 1
  • Mike Leigh5%▼ 6
  • Andrew Haigh5%
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
  • Na Hong-jin4%
  • Greta Gerwig4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • James Ashcroft2%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey90%▲ 13
  • Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
  • Sense and Sensibility65%▲ 6
9 more
  • The Black Ball64%▼ 6
  • I Love Boosters50%▼ 3
  • Werwulf49%▲ 3
  • Wuthering Heights44%▲ 11
  • Michael40%▲ 3
  • The Devil Wears Prada 235%▼ 6
  • Digger29%▲ 6
  • Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 6
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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