Oscar nominees: Best Visual Effects (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $228 today · $14.4K traded · $8K at stake · prices read 51 min ago

The odds

91%Dune: Part Three

Dune: Part Three91%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary86%
The Odyssey84%
Godzilla Minus Zero81%▼ 7
Avengers: Doomsday47%▲ 1
Spider-Man: Brand New Day36%
Narnia6%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Dune: Part Three: 91% on Oct 20, 91% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Dune: Part Three	91%	▼ 1	87¢	95¢	$1.05	1.2K
Project Hail Mary	86%		84¢	87¢	$1.15	7.1K
The Odyssey	84%		80¢	88¢	$1.14	1.6K
Godzilla Minus Zero	81%	▼ 7	77¢	84¢	$1.19	3.7K
Avengers: Doomsday	47%	▲ 1	43¢	50¢	$2.00	3.4K
Spider-Man: Brand New Day	36%		32¢	40¢	$2.50	3.0K
Narnia	6%	▼ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	4.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Visual Effects (2027)Dune: Part ThreeKalshi 91%Polymarket 95%4 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Visual Effects Nominations

95%Dune: Part Three

Dune: Part Three95%▲ 1
The Odyssey87%▼ 2
Project Hail Mary85%▲ 1
Godzilla Minus Zero65%▼ 26

2 more

Avengers: Doomsday43%▲ 1
Spider-Man: Brand New Day35%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Visual Effects

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Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the WarStanford University · 5 h agoStanford University Film Screening of the 2026 Lithuanian submission for the Academy Awards – How to Divorce During the War Join us for a film screening of Lithuania's submission for the Academy Awards with commentary from Maarja…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 15 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Oscar Piastri warns COTA bumps could become an overtaking hazard at US GPYahoo Sports · 8 h agoMcLaren's Oscar Piastri has compared the bump on the approach to Turn 1 at the Circuit of the Americas to "a motocross jump" after qualifying seventh for the United States Grand Prix. The Australian driver finished 0.768 seconds behind…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 15 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 37 h agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 11 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Red Sea Film Foundation expands global reach with record Oscar-season slateBroadcastPro ME · 55 min agoThe shortlist for Best International Feature Film will be announced on December 15, 2026, with nominations on January 21, 2027. The Red Sea Film Foundation has achieved a record presence in the race for the Best International Feature Film…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 39 h agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 3 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
Pakistani short film ‘The Last Glance’ qualifies for Oscars longlist24 News HD · 20 h agoPakistani filmmaker Kamran Faiq has achieved an international milestone as his short film The Last Glance qualifies for the 2028 Academy Awards longlist after winning the Jury Award for Best Short at the 21st Tasveer Film Festival in…

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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

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You Can See Everything28%▼ 1
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Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton76%

15 more

Tao Okamoto62%▼ 5
Amanda Seyfried45%▼ 14
Kate O'Flynn42%▲ 2
Olivia Colman31%▲ 3
Mariana di Girolamo29%▼ 2
Sandra Hüller25%▼ 5
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Merritt Wever18%▲ 5
Gemma Chan12%▲ 3
Danielle Deadwyler11%▲ 7
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Betty Gilpin6%▲ 2
Isabella Rossellini5%▼ 1
Margaret Qualley3%▼ 1
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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

92%Matt Damon

Matt Damon92%▼ 3
John Malkovich89%▲ 1
Andrew Scott85%

16 more

Tom Cruise50%▼ 13
John Turturro45%▲ 2
Anthony Ippolito45%▲ 14
Ryan Gosling44%▼ 4
Robert Pattinson44%▼ 1
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson17%
Pedro Pascal16%▲ 2
Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell7%▲ 2
Javier Bardem5%
Adam Driver5%
Josh O'Connor5%▼ 1
Brad Pitt4%
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%
You Can See Everything76%▼ 6
The Invite60%▼ 2
I Play Rocky57%▲ 14
All of a Sudden38%▲ 1
Fjord34%▼ 2
Obsession32%▲ 2
Elsinore24%▼ 7
The Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▼ 2
Digger19%
Behemoth!19%▲ 3
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%

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Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

91%The Debut

The Debut91%▲ 7
Wild Horse Nine90%▼ 4
Club Kid59%▼ 2

15 more

Obsession55%▲ 10
Fjord51%▲ 4
Elsinore34%▲ 9
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma20%▲ 4
Behemoth!18%▼ 5
The Drama16%▼ 4
Josephine13%▲ 4
Digger13%▼ 1
Fatherland6%▲ 3
Forgotten Island5%▲ 2
The Odyssey4%
The Invite4%
A Place in Hell4%
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The Black Ball2%

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Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%▲ 15
The Black Ball97%▲ 15
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10 more

Wild Horse Nine57%▼ 6
Dune: Part Three48%▼ 9
Project Hail Mary38%▲ 1
Fjord31%▲ 1
The Debut20%▼ 33
The Invite18%▼ 10
Elsinore17%▲ 1
Digger16%
Ink14%
Club Kid12%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$14.4K (24,659 contracts)

Today$228

This week$318

At stake$8K

In the news26 headlines today, 339 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Avengers: Doomsday has been nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.