Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $1.8K today · $17.8K traded · $5.5K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

92%Wild Horse Nine
  • Wild Horse Nine92%
  • The Debut91%▲ 8
  • Obsession69%▲ 12
  • Club Kid59%▼ 4
  • Fjord44%▲ 3
  • Elsinore27%▼ 1
  • Behemoth!21%▼ 1
  • Digger19%
  • Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma18%▲ 2
  • The Drama15%
  • Josephine11%
  • A Place in Hell4%
6 more
  • The Invite4%
  • The Odyssey4%
  • Forgotten Island3%▼ 5
  • Fatherland2%▼ 2
  • The Black Ball1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Wild Horse Nine 92% 91¢ 92¢ $1.09 $756
The Debut 91% ▲ 8 89¢ 92¢ $1.09 $790
Obsession 69% ▲ 12 55¢ 83¢ $1.20 $547
Club Kid 59% ▼ 4 51¢ 66¢ $1.52 $2.2K
Fjord 44% ▲ 3 43¢ 44¢ $2.27 $1.1K
Elsinore 27% ▼ 1 25¢ 29¢ $3.45
Behemoth! 21% ▼ 1 20¢ 21¢ $4.76 $479
Digger 19% 18¢ 19¢ $5.26 $1.1K
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma 18% ▲ 2 17¢ 18¢ $5.56
The Drama 15% 14¢ 16¢ $6.25 $4.1K
Josephine 11% 8¢ 14¢ $7.14 $250
A Place in Hell 4% 2¢ 7¢ $14.49 $521
The Invite 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 $595
The Odyssey 4% 0¢ 8¢ $13.16 $1.7K
Forgotten Island 3% ▼ 5 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 $109
Fatherland 2% ▼ 2 0¢ 3¢ $30.30 $477
The Black Ball 1% 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 $2.6K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 1% 0¢ 1¢ $604

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay (2027)

93%Wild Horse Nine
  • Wild Horse Nine93%
  • The Debut86%
  • Club Kid57%▲ 1
  • Obsession50%▲ 3
14 more
  • Fjord49%▲ 9
  • Behemoth!28%
  • Elsinore26%
  • Digger25%
  • Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma16%▼ 1
  • The Drama13%
  • Josephine7%
  • The Black Ball7%
  • Fatherland6%▼ 2
  • The Invite5%▼ 1
  • Forgotten Island3%
  • A Place in Hell3%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth2%
  • The Odyssey2%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $293 today · $25.3K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Original Screenplay Nominations

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All awards ›
Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey46%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball18%
  • You Can See Everything16%▼ 7
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three9%
  • Wild Horse Nine2%
  • Digger1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey97%
  • La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
19 more
  • Dune: Part Three87%▲ 1
  • The Debut80%▼ 3
  • Project Hail Mary77%▼ 3
  • You Can See Everything71%▲ 5
  • The Invite59%
  • Fjord39%
  • All of a Sudden36%
  • Obsession34%
  • I Play Rocky31%▼ 8
  • Elsinore25%▼ 9
  • Behemoth!22%▲ 3
  • Digger20%▲ 1
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▲ 2
  • Michael13%▼ 1
  • Disclosure Day8%▼ 1
  • Avengers: Doomsday8%▼ 1
  • Fatherland4%
  • The Social Reckoning4%▼ 1
  • The Drama3%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey85%
  • The Black Ball77%
  • Wild Horse Nine62%▲ 2
10 more
  • Dune: Part Three47%▼ 3
  • You Can See Everything40%
  • Project Hail Mary39%▲ 5
  • Fjord31%▼ 3
  • The Debut27%▼ 3
  • The Invite26%▲ 5
  • Elsinore21%▲ 3
  • Ink21%
  • Club Kid19%▼ 3
  • Digger14%▼ 2
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey94%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball72%▼ 6
  • Dune: Part Three65%▼ 5
10 more
  • Disclosure Day65%▼ 4
  • Project Hail Mary59%▼ 1
  • You Can See Everything41%
  • Behemoth!33%▼ 14
  • Wild Horse Nine23%▼ 3
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%▲ 1
  • Whalefall7%▲ 3
  • The Social Reckoning6%
  • The Drama5%
  • The Mandalorian and Grogu3%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

93%Matt Damon
  • Matt Damon93%
  • John Malkovich88%
  • Andrew Scott86%▼ 1
16 more
  • Tom Cruise55%▼ 2
  • Ryan Gosling45%▲ 3
  • John Turturro44%▲ 2
  • Robert Pattinson43%▼ 1
  • Anthony Ippolito27%▼ 10
  • Pedro Pascal19%▲ 1
  • Sebastian Stan17%
  • Jaafar Jackson17%
  • Timothée Chalamet10%▼ 12
  • Josh O'Connor7%▲ 2
  • Adam Driver5%▲ 1
  • Sam Rockwell5%
  • Brad Pitt5%
  • Javier Bardem4%
  • Robert Aramayo4%
  • Jeremy Strong1%▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.