Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $87 today · $26K traded · $10.9K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

94%Wild Horse Nine

Wild Horse Nine94%
The Debut86%
Club Kid59%▲ 1
Obsession53%▲ 1
Fjord46%
Elsinore26%
Behemoth!21%
The Drama20%▲ 2
Digger17%▲ 1
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma16%▲ 1
Josephine8%
The Black Ball8%▲ 1

6 more

Fatherland6%▲ 1
A Place in Hell6%
The Invite4%▲ 1
Forgotten Island3%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
The Odyssey2%

How the odds have moved

Wild Horse Nine: 93% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Wild Horse Nine	94%		92¢	96¢	$1.04	6.0K
The Debut	86%		83¢	89¢	$1.12	3.0K
Club Kid	59%	▲ 1	57¢	60¢	$1.67	4.4K
Obsession	53%	▲ 1	51¢	54¢	$1.85	16.7K
Fjord	46%		44¢	48¢	$2.08	5.8K
Elsinore	26%		22¢	30¢	$3.33	52.00
Behemoth!	21%		17¢	24¢	$4.17	991
The Drama	20%	▲ 2	18¢	22¢	$4.55	1.3K
Digger	17%	▲ 1	16¢	18¢	$5.56	10.1K
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma	16%	▲ 1	15¢	16¢	$6.25	1.0K
Josephine	8%		3¢	12¢	$8.33	655
The Black Ball	8%	▲ 1	6¢	9¢	$11.11	4.0K
Fatherland	6%	▲ 1	3¢	9¢	$11.11	1.4K
A Place in Hell	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00	962
The Invite	4%	▲ 1	2¢	5¢	$20.00	13.5K
Forgotten Island	3%		1¢	5¢	$20.00	366
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	3%			6¢	$16.67	13.0K
The Odyssey	2%			4¢	$25.00	3.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Original Screenplay (2027)ElsinoreKalshi 26%Polymarket 34%8 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

91%The Debut

The Debut91%▲ 7
Wild Horse Nine89%▼ 5
Club Kid59%▼ 1
Obsession51%▼ 5

14 more

Fjord48%
Elsinore34%▲ 9
Behemoth!21%▼ 3
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma20%▲ 4
The Drama19%▼ 1
Digger13%▼ 1
Josephine12%▲ 2
Forgotten Island5%▲ 2
The Odyssey4%
The Invite4%
A Place in Hell4%
Fatherland4%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth3%
The Black Ball2%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Original Screenplay

Search ›

Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 41 h agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 3 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 43 h agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Screen Brasil Backs International Distribution of Oscar Hopeful ‘Gugu’s World’ and Gramado Winner ‘Our Secret’ (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 4 days agoThe Embratur and Projeto Paradiso initiative awards $15,000 per film to support theatrical releases in Spain, the U.S. and Canada, with a new funding round set for 2027 Screen Brasil, the leading initiative from Embratur and Projeto…
Red Bull is now F1's “most consistently quick car” says Oscar PiastriYahoo Sports · 3 days agoAfter what was a very successful couple of weekends from Max Verstappen, McLaren's Oscar Piastri believes that Red Bull is now the most consistently fast team on the Formula 1 grid after its recent upgrades rocketed it to the top of the…
Zendaya Mounting Major Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune 3Outlook India · 30 h agoThis is a decisive shift from the earlier Dune films that pitched Zendaya in the supporting actress race Zendaya will be campaigning in the Oscars Best Actress race for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve returns to helm the third and final…
Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore calls Nebraska homeKMTV 3 News Now Omaha · 33 h agoELKHORN, Neb. (KMTV) — Filmmaking may be synonymous with Hollywood, but one of the industry's acclaimed cinematographers makes his home right here in Nebraska. Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore lives in the Elkhorn area with his…
‘Fighting an impossible fight is the only way to reclaim dignity’: Lee Chang-dong on class warfare and his searing Oscar contenderthe Guardian · 2 days agoThe auteur’s new film – a study of labour, capital and the fallout of redundancy – won the grand jury prize at Venice. Telling tales of the disenfranchised is ‘our moral responsibility’, he saysA quintessential 21st-century horror story: a…
Zendaya to campaign for 'Best Actress' Oscar for ‘Dune: Part Three’ARY News · 31 h agoZendaya will campaign for the “Best Actress” category for her role as Chani in Dune 3 at the Academy Awards. This marked the first change from the “Supporting Actress” category. According to multiple sources cited by Variety, the decision…
Zendaya Sets Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune: Part 3IGN · 38 h agoZendaya will reportedly campaign in the Best Actress category for her role as Chani in Dune: Part III in the upcoming Oscars race. “The move marks a shift from the first two films, where she was positioned in supporting actress,” said…

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Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton76%▲ 4

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Tao Okamoto62%▼ 5
Amanda Seyfried45%▼ 14
Kate O'Flynn42%▲ 1
Olivia Colman32%▲ 7
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Sandra Hüller24%▼ 6
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Isabella Rossellini5%▼ 1
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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything27%
La Bola Negra14%▲ 1

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 1
Digger4%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Invite<1%
Tony<1%
The Drama<1%
Behemoth!<1%
Josephine<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
The Debut<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Saturn Return<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

91%Matt Damon

Matt Damon91%▼ 4
Andrew Scott86%▲ 1
John Malkovich85%▼ 4

16 more

Tom Cruise50%▼ 13
John Turturro47%▲ 4
Ryan Gosling44%▼ 3
Robert Pattinson44%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito41%▲ 10
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 1
Pedro Pascal16%
Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell7%▲ 1
Brad Pitt6%▲ 1
Josh O'Connor6%▲ 1
Javier Bardem5%▲ 1
Adam Driver5%
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%
You Can See Everything76%▼ 5
I Play Rocky61%▲ 17
The Invite61%
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord34%▼ 2
Obsession31%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth23%▼ 1
Elsinore23%▼ 8
Digger19%
Behemoth!19%▲ 1
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

The Odyssey95%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three76%▼ 16
Project Hail Mary63%▼ 5

6 more

Werwulf45%▲ 19
Fatherland45%▲ 3
Digger24%▼ 5
Obsession19%▲ 5
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth15%
Josephine10%▼ 2

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Oscars 2027: Best Documentary Short Film Nominations

75%The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Baddest Speechwriter of All75%▲ 11
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Listen45%▲ 18
A Derailment41%▲ 3
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$26K (87,043 contracts)

Today$87

This week$666

At stake$10.9K

In the news31 headlines today, 336 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Digger has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.