Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actress (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $841 today · $57.6K traded · $23.9K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

90%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway90%
Penélope Cruz79%▲ 1
Samantha Morton75%▼ 1
Tao Okamoto63%
Amanda Seyfried54%▲ 6
Kate O'Flynn33%
Olivia Colman32%▼ 2
Mariana di Girolamo29%▼ 2
Sandra Hüller25%▼ 1
Parker Posey21%▼ 1
Merritt Wever20%
Margaret Qualley6%

7 more

Danielle Deadwyler6%
Marion Bailey6%
Gemma Chan5%
Inde Navarrette5%
Betty Gilpin4%
Isabella Rossellini4%
Zendaya2%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Anne Hathaway: 89% on Oct 20, 90% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Anne Hathaway	90%		89¢	90¢	$1.11	20.3K
Penélope Cruz	79%	▲ 1	77¢	80¢	$1.25	6.3K
Samantha Morton	75%	▼ 1	73¢	76¢	$1.32	16.5K
Tao Okamoto	63%		62¢	63¢	$1.59	4.8K
Amanda Seyfried	54%	▲ 6	53¢	54¢	$1.85	22.8K
Kate O'Flynn	33%		28¢	37¢	$2.70	1.0K
Olivia Colman	32%	▼ 2	27¢	36¢	$2.78	1.7K
Mariana di Girolamo	29%	▼ 2	25¢	33¢	$3.03	4.9K
Sandra Hüller	25%	▼ 1	22¢	27¢	$3.70	7.9K
Parker Posey	21%	▼ 1	19¢	22¢	$4.55	7.1K
Merritt Wever	20%		16¢	24¢	$4.17	532
Margaret Qualley	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11	484
Danielle Deadwyler	6%		2¢	9¢	$11.11	279
Marion Bailey	6%		1¢	10¢	$10.00
Gemma Chan	5%		1¢	9¢	$11.11	467
Inde Navarrette	5%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	24.0K
Betty Gilpin	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	303
Isabella Rossellini	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	421
Zendaya	2%	▼ 1	1¢	3¢	$33.33	4.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Supporting Actress (2027)Danielle DeadwylerKalshi 6%Polymarket 12%7 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

89%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway89%▲ 1
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton70%▼ 4
Tao Okamoto61%

14 more

Amanda Seyfried48%▲ 8
Olivia Colman34%▲ 2
Kate O'Flynn31%▼ 10
Mariana di Girolamo29%▲ 1
Sandra Hüller28%▲ 3
Parker Posey18%▼ 3
Merritt Wever18%
Danielle Deadwyler12%▲ 5
Gemma Chan9%▲ 1
Betty Gilpin7%▲ 1
Zendaya6%▼ 2
Isabella Rossellini5%▼ 1
Margaret Qualley4%▼ 38
Inde Navarrette1%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Supporting Actress

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey

The Odyssey48%▲ 4
You Can See Everything27%▼ 2
The Black Ball13%

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Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
Digger1%
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
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Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
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I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
The Black Ball95%
Wild Horse Nine91%

50 more

You Can See Everything83%▲ 5
Dune: Part Three82%▼ 2
Project Hail Mary75%▼ 2
The Debut74%
The Invite62%
I Play Rocky57%
Artificial54%▼ 2
All of a Sudden36%▼ 1
Obsession33%
Fjord32%▼ 3
Elsinore30%
Wildwood28%▲ 1
Digger23%▼ 1
Club Kid23%▲ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 2
Being Heumann18%
Possible Love17%▲ 1
Behemoth14%▼ 1
Michael11%▼ 1
Primetime10%▼ 1
Josephine8%▲ 2
Ink8%▲ 2
Sense and Sensibility6%▼ 1
Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 2
Saturn Return5%▼ 1
Paper Tiger5%▲ 1
Misty Green4%▲ 1
1949 / Fatherland4%
Minotaur4%▼ 1
Disclosure Day3%
Werwulf3%▼ 3
The Drama3%▼ 1
The Whisper Man3%▼ 1
The Uprising3%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
Clarissa3%▼ 1
Cry to Heaven3%▼ 2
Parallel Tales3%▼ 1
Rose3%▼ 1
The Entertainment System Is Down2%▼ 1
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%
I Love Boosters2%
Avengers: Doomsday2%▼ 3
The Death of Robin Hood2%▼ 1
Jack of Spades2%
Hope2%▼ 1
Backrooms2%▼ 1
Tony2%
Bucking Fastard2%
The Social Reckoning1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

81%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything81%▼ 6
NAZA81%▼ 4
Once Upon a Time in Harlem65%▲ 2

7 more

American Doctor62%▼ 1
14th43%▲ 5
Nuisance Bear39%▲ 1
One in a Million31%▼ 2
Musk29%▲ 3
Tutu23%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party20%▲ 1

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

88%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball88%▼ 3
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut77%▲ 1
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 568%▼ 12

8 more

By Any Means - By Any Means66%
When I'm Home - The Odyssey57%▲ 14
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 248%▲ 20
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad35%▼ 6
Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk28%▲ 1
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!10%▼ 24
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Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

54%La Nieve - The Black Ball

La Nieve - The Black Ball54%▼ 5
This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut27%▲ 13
I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 513%▼ 2

8 more

Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk2%▼ 5
Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%▲ 1
Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations

98%All of a Sudden

All of a Sudden98%
The Black Ball97%▲ 1
Fjord88%▼ 1

6 more

Possible Love63%▼ 22
Fatherland61%▲ 27
Minotaur53%▼ 2
Rose44%▼ 9
The Dreamed Adventure17%▲ 7
Coward16%▲ 3

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$57.6K (123,774 contracts)

Today$841

This week$2.4K

At stake$23.9K

In the news15 headlines today, 300 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Isabella Rossellini has been nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions