Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $153 today · $23.6K traded · $13.7K at stake · prices read 78 min ago

The odds

93%The Odyssey

The Odyssey93%▼ 1
The Invite88%
The Black Ball87%▼ 1
Project Hail Mary69%▼ 3
All of a Sudden61%▲ 1
Dune: Part Three33%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth28%▲ 6
Ink20%
Clarissa14%▲ 2
Cry to Heaven14%
Wildwood9%
The Whisper Man7%▼ 1

3 more

Toy Story 56%
The Social Reckoning4%
Saturn Return3%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 93% on Oct 20, 93% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
The Odyssey	93%	▼ 1	91¢	95¢	$1.05	4.0K
The Invite	88%		87¢	89¢	$1.12	7.9K
The Black Ball	87%	▼ 1	83¢	91¢	$1.10	2.8K
Project Hail Mary	69%	▼ 3	67¢	71¢	$1.41	7.4K
All of a Sudden	61%	▲ 1	57¢	64¢	$1.56	2.6K
Dune: Part Three	33%		30¢	35¢	$2.86	5.8K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	28%	▲ 6	25¢	32¢	$3.13	3.1K
Ink	20%		16¢	24¢	$4.17	808
Clarissa	14%	▲ 2	13¢	16¢	$6.25	1.3K
Cry to Heaven	14%		9¢	18¢	$5.56	460
Wildwood	9%		5¢	13¢	$7.69	2.2K
The Whisper Man	7%	▼ 1	3¢	11¢	$9.09	326
Toy Story 5	6%		3¢	9¢	$11.11	1.5K
The Social Reckoning	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	5.6K
Saturn Return	3%			5¢	$20.00	1.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)Cry to HeavenKalshi 14%Polymarket 4%9 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

94%The Invite

The Invite94%▲ 2
The Odyssey90%▲ 1
The Black Ball89%▲ 1
Project Hail Mary60%▼ 14

11 more

All of a Sudden60%▼ 1
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth39%▲ 3
Dune: Part Three28%▼ 1
Ink20%▲ 2
Clarissa17%▲ 2
Saturn Return7%▲ 2
Wildwood4%
Cry to Heaven4%
The Social Reckoning4%
The Whisper Man3%
Toy Story 53%

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay

Search ›

Neon joins the Guardian, MK2 on Academy Award-winning directors Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor’s NAZAthe Guardian · 3 days agoDocumentary, produced by James Wilson and executive-produced by Jonathan Glazer, premiered in Venice and won the special jury prize The Guardian’s head of investigations, Paul Lewis, and global head of multimedia, Nicole Jackson, said…
The Surprise Guest in ‘You Can See Everything’ Could Win an Oscar. Should They?Variety · 19 h agoSPOILER ALERT: This article contains spoilers for “You Can See Everything,” now playing in theaters. The question that’s consumed the awards-pundit class since “You Can See Everything” exploded into theaters last week is whether Amanda…
Clayface Just Broke a Comic Book Movie Record & Beat An Academy Award WinnerComicBook.com · 3 days ago(Sr. Writer/Editor) Kofi Outlaw has a B.A. in writing and film studies. He then earned a Master’s Degree in creative writing from The New School in NYC, where he became editor of Screenrant.com when it was just a hobby blog. Kofi…
Fulham climb out of drop zone after Oscar Bobb’s late show sinks Coventrythe Guardian · 20 h agoOscar Bobb’s first Premier League goal for Fulham earned a win against Coventry that lifted Álvaro Arbeloa’s side clear of the relegation zone. Bobb produced a fine bit of individual skill to score in the 80th minute, twisting his way into…
Zendaya Sets ‘Dune 3’ Oscar Campaign for Best Actress in Category Shake-Up (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 41 h agoZendaya is “Dune’s” leading lady. Multiple sources tell Variety that Zendaya will campaign for Oscar consideration in the lead actress category for her role as Chani in “Dune: Part Three,” the final chapter of Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi…
Oscar winner Melissa Leo to perform in KingstonDaily Freeman · 15 h agoKINGSTON, N.Y. — Academy Award winner Melissa Leo, a part-time Ulster County resident, will take the stage at the Arts Society of Kingston for a stage reading of “night, Mother,” Marsha Norman’s Pulitzer Prize–winning drama, on Saturday…
Medical Academy Awards N10m Gold Medal to Cardiologist Ogah, inducts 13 fellowsChampion of the Truth. · 3 days agoThe Academy of Medical Sciences of Nigeria has announced a N10 million Gold Medal Award for Professor Okechukwu Samuel Ogah, a cardiologist recognised for his contributions to cardiovascular research, medical education and healthcare in…
Jeon Do-yeon Defined an Era of Korean Cinema. With ‘Possible Love,’ She’s Become an Oscar ContenderThe Hollywood Reporter · 43 h agoThe decorated actor could become the first person from South Korea to be nominated for best actress — fitting, given her remarkable run onscreen: “I almost find myself wondering why it has taken the rest of the world so long to notice…
Pakistani short film ‘The Last Glance’ qualifies for Oscars longlist24 News HD · 24 h agoPakistani filmmaker Kamran Faiq has achieved an international milestone as his short film The Last Glance qualifies for the 2028 Academy Awards longlist after winning the Jury Award for Best Short at the 21st Tasveer Film Festival in…
Zendaya Mounting Major Best Actress Oscar Campaign for Dune 3Outlook India · 30 h agoThis is a decisive shift from the earlier Dune films that pitched Zendaya in the supporting actress race Zendaya will be campaigning in the Oscars Best Actress race for Dune: Part Three. Denis Villeneuve returns to helm the third and final…
Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore calls Nebraska homeKMTV 3 News Now Omaha · 32 h agoELKHORN, Neb. (KMTV) — Filmmaking may be synonymous with Hollywood, but one of the industry's acclaimed cinematographers makes his home right here in Nebraska. Oscar-winning cinematographer Mauro Fiore lives in the Elkhorn area with his…
Red Bull is now F1's “most consistently quick car” says Oscar PiastriYahoo Sports · 3 days agoAfter what was a very successful couple of weekends from Max Verstappen, McLaren's Oscar Piastri believes that Red Bull is now the most consistently fast team on the Formula 1 grid after its recent upgrades rocketed it to the top of the…

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Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

88%Anne Hathaway

Anne Hathaway88%
Penélope Cruz77%
Samantha Morton76%▲ 4

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Tao Okamoto62%▼ 5
Amanda Seyfried45%▼ 15
Kate O'Flynn42%▲ 1
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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner

44%The Odyssey

The Odyssey44%▲ 1
You Can See Everything27%▼ 1
La Bola Negra14%▲ 1

24 more

Dune: Part Three7%▼ 1
Digger4%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine1%
Artificial<1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
The Invite<1%
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Behemoth!<1%
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Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
The Debut<1%
Obsession<1%
I Play Rocky<1%
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All of a Sudden<1%
Clarissa<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fatherland<1%
Michael<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%

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Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

90%Matt Damon

Matt Damon90%▼ 4
Andrew Scott85%
John Malkovich85%▼ 4

16 more

Tom Cruise51%▼ 13
John Turturro47%▲ 4
Ryan Gosling45%▼ 3
Robert Pattinson44%▼ 1
Anthony Ippolito41%▲ 10
Sebastian Stan19%
Jaafar Jackson18%▲ 2
Pedro Pascal16%
Timothée Chalamet11%▼ 2
Sam Rockwell7%▲ 1
Josh O'Connor5%
Adam Driver5%
Javier Bardem4%
Brad Pitt4%▼ 1
Robert Aramayo3%
Jeremy Strong2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

98%The Odyssey

The Odyssey98%
La Bola Negra96%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine91%▼ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three88%
Project Hail Mary77%
The Debut77%
You Can See Everything76%▼ 6
I Play Rocky61%▲ 18
The Invite61%
All of a Sudden37%▼ 1
Fjord34%▼ 3
Obsession31%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth23%▼ 1
Elsinore23%▼ 8
Digger19%
Behemoth!19%
Michael11%
Avengers: Doomsday7%
Disclosure Day5%
Fatherland5%
The Drama3%
The Social Reckoning2%▲ 1

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Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

91%The Debut

The Debut91%▲ 7
Wild Horse Nine89%▼ 5
Club Kid59%▲ 1

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Obsession51%▼ 18
Fjord48%
Elsinore34%▲ 9
The Drama21%▲ 1
Behemoth!21%▼ 3
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A Place in Hell4%
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Oscars 2027: Best Cinematography Nominations

95%The Odyssey

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Werwulf45%▲ 19
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$23.6K (47,764 contracts)

Today$153

This week$1.8K

At stake$13.7K

In the news31 headlines today, 336 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Clarissa has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.