Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Mar 14, 2027 · $4.6K today · $29.6K traded · $6.6K at stake · prices read 26 min ago

The odds

92%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey92%▲ 2
  • The Black Ball89%▼ 1
  • The Invite87%▼ 7
  • Project Hail Mary70%▼ 1
  • All of a Sudden55%▼ 17
  • Dune: Part Three39%▲ 11
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth26%▼ 15
  • Ink20%
  • Clarissa16%▼ 2
  • Toy Story 55%▲ 2
  • Wildwood4%
  • Cry to Heaven4%
3 more
  • Saturn Return4%
  • The Social Reckoning4%
  • The Whisper Man3%

How the odds have moved

The Odyssey: 89% on Oct 20, 92% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 12 PM ETThe Odyssey: 84% → 92%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
The Odyssey 92% ▲ 2 90¢ 93¢ $1.08 $798
The Black Ball 89% ▼ 1 88¢ 89¢ $1.12 $985
The Invite 87% ▼ 7 76¢ 98¢ $1.02 $938
Project Hail Mary 70% ▼ 1 60¢ 79¢ $1.27 $2.1K
All of a Sudden 55% ▼ 17 53¢ 57¢ $1.75 $1.3K
Dune: Part Three 39% ▲ 11 30¢ 48¢ $2.08 $3K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 26% ▼ 15 25¢ 28¢ $3.62 $5.6K
Ink 20% 19¢ 21¢ $4.76 $2.9K
Clarissa 16% ▼ 2 13¢ 19¢ $5.26 $1.8K
Toy Story 5 5% ▲ 2 3¢ 6¢ $15.87 $6.8K
Wildwood 4% 2¢ 6¢ $16.13 $1.7K
Cry to Heaven 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.71 $1.1K
Saturn Return 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 $46
The Social Reckoning 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 $386
The Whisper Man 3% 2¢ 5¢ $18.87 $371

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay (2027)

92%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey92%▼ 1
  • The Invite89%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball87%▼ 1
  • Project Hail Mary70%▲ 1
11 more
  • All of a Sudden57%▼ 1
  • Dune: Part Three34%▲ 1
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth28%
  • Ink20%
  • Cry to Heaven14%
  • Clarissa13%▼ 2
  • Wildwood9%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man7%
  • Toy Story 56%
  • The Social Reckoning4%
  • Saturn Return3%
KalshiCloses Dec 31, 2027 · $447 today · $24K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations

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Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything28%▼ 1
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

98%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey98%
  • The Black Ball95%▲ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three82%▼ 1
  • You Can See Everything82%▲ 3
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 1
  • I Play Rocky57%▼ 1
  • Artificial55%▼ 1
  • All of a Sudden36%▼ 2
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession33%
  • Elsinore30%
  • Wildwood28%▲ 2
  • Digger23%▲ 1
  • Club Kid22%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth20%▼ 2
  • Being Heumann18%
  • Possible Love17%▲ 1
  • Behemoth15%▼ 1
  • Michael11%▼ 1
  • Primetime10%
  • Josephine8%▲ 2
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother6%▼ 2
  • Saturn Return5%▼ 1
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • 1949 / Fatherland4%▲ 1
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • Minotaur4%▼ 1
  • The Whisper Man4%
  • Clarissa4%
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Werwulf3%▼ 3
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner

53%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball53%▼ 4
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut28%▲ 12
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 514%▼ 1
8 more
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk2%▼ 6
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 21%
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!1%
  • By Any Means - By Any Means<1%
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey<1%
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn<1%
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad<1%
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations

89%La Nieve - The Black Ball
  • La Nieve - The Black Ball89%▼ 2
  • This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut75%▼ 1
  • I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 569%▼ 11
8 more
  • By Any Means - By Any Means66%▼ 1
  • When I'm Home - The Odyssey58%▲ 2
  • Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 238%▲ 2
  • Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth!34%▼ 3
  • How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad31%▲ 4
  • Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk28%▲ 2
  • Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn6%▲ 5
  • Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions