Oscar nominees: Best Actress (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $1.2K today · $182K traded · $81.8K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

90%Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore90%▼ 3
Inde Navarrette83%▼ 3
Olivia Wilde76%▲ 1
Sandra Hüller57%▲ 1
Virginie Efira50%▲ 3
Ruth Madeley45%▼ 1
Renate Reinsve44%▼ 1
Rosalind Eleazar16%▼ 1
Emily Blunt12%
Anne Hathaway11%▲ 2
Sophie Okonedo10%▲ 1
Daisy Edgar-Jones9%

14 more

Cynthia Erivo7%▼ 3
Laura Linney7%▲ 1
Lily Gladstone6%
Zendaya6%▼ 1
Shailene Woodley6%
Penélope Cruz6%
Joan Collins5%
Mikey Madison5%▼ 1
Scarlett Johansson4%▼ 1
Michelle Williams4%
Michelle Monaghan4%
Natalie Portman4%
Kirsten Dunst4%
Dakota Johnson4%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Julianne Moore	90%	▼ 3	86¢	93¢	$1.08	19.6K
Inde Navarrette	83%	▼ 3	81¢	84¢	$1.19	134.3K
Olivia Wilde	76%	▲ 1	74¢	77¢	$1.30	28.9K
Sandra Hüller	57%	▲ 1	55¢	60¢	$1.67	13.8K
Virginie Efira	50%	▲ 3	48¢	51¢	$1.96	5.3K
Ruth Madeley	45%	▼ 1	44¢	45¢	$2.22	5.4K
Renate Reinsve	44%	▼ 1	43¢	45¢	$2.22	26.5K
Rosalind Eleazar	16%	▼ 1	15¢	17¢	$5.88	6.0K
Emily Blunt	12%		11¢	13¢	$7.69	15.6K
Anne Hathaway	11%	▲ 2	9¢	13¢	$7.69	14.2K
Sophie Okonedo	10%	▲ 1	6¢	13¢	$7.69	757
Daisy Edgar-Jones	9%		6¢	11¢	$9.09	3.3K
Cynthia Erivo	7%	▼ 3	5¢	9¢	$11.11	6.4K
Laura Linney	7%	▲ 1	4¢	9¢	$11.11	1.5K
Lily Gladstone	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.09	565
Zendaya	6%	▼ 1	2¢	10¢	$10.00	2.5K
Shailene Woodley	6%		1¢	11¢	$9.09	1.2K
Penélope Cruz	6%		3¢	8¢	$12.50	3.5K
Joan Collins	5%		3¢	14¢	$7.14	660
Mikey Madison	5%	▼ 1	4¢	5¢	$20.00	9.7K
Scarlett Johansson	4%	▼ 1	1¢	7¢	$14.29	3.6K
Michelle Williams	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	9.2K
Michelle Monaghan	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.29	144
Natalie Portman	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	132
Kirsten Dunst	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	1.0K
Dakota Johnson	4%		2¢	5¢	$20.00	858

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscar nominees: Best Actress (2027)Anne HathawayKalshi 11%Polymarket 4%7 pts apart

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

96%Julianne Moore

Julianne Moore96%
Inde Navarrette85%▼ 2
Olivia Wilde74%▲ 3
Sandra Hüller71%▲ 12

22 more

Virginie Efira55%▼ 2
Renate Reinsve40%▼ 14
Ruth Madeley39%▼ 1
Rosalind Eleazar22%▲ 8
Sophie Okonedo11%▼ 7
Mikey Madison7%
Daisy Edgar-Jones7%▼ 1
Emily Blunt6%▼ 1
Dakota Johnson6%
Natalie Portman6%
Cynthia Erivo6%
Joan Collins6%
Lily Gladstone6%▲ 1
Michelle Monaghan5%
Zendaya5%
Anne Hathaway4%
Laura Linney4%▼ 2
Scarlett Johansson4%
Penélope Cruz4%
Michelle Williams3%
Kirsten Dunst1%
Shailene Woodley1%▲ 1

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Actress

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All awards ›

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey

The Odyssey97%
La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1

19 more

Dune: Part Three87%
The Debut81%▼ 2
Project Hail Mary77%▼ 3
You Can See Everything71%▼ 3
The Invite58%▲ 1
Fjord39%
I Play Rocky39%▲ 1
All of a Sudden36%
Obsession34%
Elsinore25%▲ 1
Behemoth!21%▲ 1
Digger20%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth19%▲ 2
Michael13%
Disclosure Day8%▲ 1
Avengers: Doomsday8%▼ 1
Fatherland4%
The Social Reckoning4%▼ 1
The Drama3%

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey

The Odyssey46%▲ 1
The Black Ball18%
You Can See Everything15%▼ 7

38 more

Dune: Part Three9%
Wild Horse Nine2%
Digger1%
Artificial1%
Project Hail Mary<1%
Disclosure Day<1%
Fjord<1%
The Social Reckoning<1%
Michael<1%
The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
Werwulf<1%
Behemoth<1%
Josephine<1%
Sense and Sensibility<1%
I Love Boosters<1%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
Avengers: Doomsday<1%
The Death of Robin Hood<1%
The Drama<1%
Ink<1%
All of a Sudden<1%
Cry to Heaven<1%
Tie<1%
1949 / Fatherland<1%
Paper Tiger<1%
Hope<1%
Minotaur<1%
Parallel Tales<1%
Jack of Spades<1%
Obsession<1%
The Debut<1%
Elsinore<1%
The Invite<1%
Club Kid<1%
Being Heumann<1%
Primetime<1%
Tender Loving Care<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

75%You Can See Everything

You Can See Everything75%▲ 2
NAZA18%▲ 1
Once Upon a Time in Harlem4%▲ 2

8 more

American Doctor3%▼ 1
Musk2%
Nuisance Bear<1%
One in a Million<1%
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party<1%
Tutu<1%
Tie<1%
14th<1%

Culture › Awards

Oscar nominees: Best Documentary Feature Film (2027)

84%NAZA

NAZA84%
You Can See Everything80%▲ 3
Once Upon a Time in Harlem76%

7 more

American Doctor52%▲ 2
14th37%
One in a Million28%
Nuisance Bear25%▼ 4
Tutu21%▲ 1
Musk18%▲ 1
Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party18%

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey

The Odyssey85%
The Black Ball77%
Wild Horse Nine60%▲ 1

10 more

Dune: Part Three44%▼ 18
Project Hail Mary39%▲ 5
You Can See Everything37%▼ 4
Fjord31%▼ 1
Digger30%▲ 14
The Debut27%▼ 2
The Invite24%▼ 3
Ink21%
Club Kid18%▲ 7
Elsinore17%▼ 7

Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey

The Odyssey94%▲ 1
Disclosure Day72%▼ 1
The Black Ball70%▼ 5

10 more

Dune: Part Three64%▼ 6
Project Hail Mary59%▼ 1
Behemoth!31%▼ 16
Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 2
You Can See Everything13%
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%▲ 1
Whalefall7%▲ 2
The Social Reckoning6%
The Drama5%
The Mandalorian and Grogu3%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAcademy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$182K (314,542 contracts)

Today$1.2K

This week$182K

At stake$81.8K

In the news25 headlines today, 547 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Renate Reinsve has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.