The Game Awards: Best Narrative

Polymarket Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31 · $104 today · $35.6K traded · $4K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

54%Grand Theft Auto VI
  • Grand Theft Auto VI54%▼ 1
  • The Blood of Dawnwalker11%
  • 007 First Light11%▲ 3
  • Silent Hill: Townfall5%▼ 3
  • Resident Evil Requiem3%
  • Mixtape3%
  • Schrödinger's Call2%
  • Control Resonant2%
  • Titanium Court1%
  • Marvel's Wolverine1%
  • Phonopolis1%▼ 1
  • The Sinking City 21%
10 more
  • Onimusha: Way of the Sword1%
  • Mouse: P.I. For Hire1%
  • Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy1%
  • OPUS: Prism Peak1%
  • Life Is Strange: Reunion1%
  • Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave1%
  • Esoteric Ebb1%
  • Pragmata1%
  • Wax Heads1%
  • Reanimal<1%

How the odds have moved

Grand Theft Auto VI: 50% on Oct 20, 54% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Grand Theft Auto VI 54% ▼ 1 54¢ 57¢ $1.75 $16.6K
The Blood of Dawnwalker 11% 3¢ 22¢ $4.55 $3.9K
007 First Light 11% ▲ 3 10¢ 15¢ $6.67 $5.5K
Silent Hill: Townfall 5% ▼ 3 2¢ 10¢ $10.10 $2.9K
Resident Evil Requiem 3% 1¢ 7¢ $15.38 $172
Mixtape 3% 1¢ 6¢ $16.13 $257
Schrödinger's Call 2% 1¢ 5¢ $22.22 $210
Control Resonant 2% 2¢ 2¢ $43.48 $1K
Titanium Court 1% 1¢ 2¢ $41.67 $189
Marvel's Wolverine 1% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 $550
Phonopolis 1% ▼ 1 0¢ 3¢ $38.46 $272
The Sinking City 2 1% 1¢ 1¢ $83.33 $1.3K
Onimusha: Way of the Sword 1% 0¢ 2¢ $47.62 $168
Mouse: P.I. For Hire 1% 1¢ 1¢ $90.91 $428
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy 1% 0¢ 2¢ $52.63 $344
OPUS: Prism Peak 1% 0¢ 2¢ $58.82 $168
Life Is Strange: Reunion 1% 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 $374
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave 1% 0¢ 2¢ $58.82 $168
Esoteric Ebb 1% 1¢ 1¢ $71.43 $200
Pragmata 1% 0¢ 1¢ $71.43 $184
Wax Heads 1% 0¢ 1¢ $90.91 $166
Reanimal <1% 0¢ 0¢ $466

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Kalshi

Game Awards: Best Narrative (Best Narrative | 2026)

58%Grand Theft Auto VI
  • Grand Theft Auto VI58%▼ 2
  • 007 First Light13%▼ 2
  • Schrödinger's Call6%
  • Silent Hill: Townfall5%
6 more
  • The Blood of Dawnwalker5%
  • Control Resonant4%▼ 1
  • Resident Evil Requiem3%▲ 1
  • Pragmata3%▲ 1
  • Tie2%
  • Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter2%
KalshiCloses Dec 31 · $32 today · $1.4K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Best Narrative, Grand Theft Auto VI

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Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

48%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey48%▲ 4
  • You Can See Everything28%▼ 3
  • The Black Ball13%
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three5%▼ 1
  • Digger1%
  • Wild Horse Nine1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%

Oscars 2027: Best Costume Design Nominations

90%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey90%▲ 12
  • Dune: Part Three74%▲ 2
  • The Black Ball66%▼ 5
9 more
  • Sense and Sensibility57%▼ 5
  • Werwulf52%▲ 7
  • I Love Boosters50%▲ 1
  • Wuthering Heights46%▲ 13
  • Michael38%▲ 3
  • The Devil Wears Prada 238%▼ 3
  • Wild Horse Nine28%▲ 8
  • Digger26%▼ 7
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth21%

Oscar nominees: Best Picture (2027)

99%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey99%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball94%▼ 2
  • Wild Horse Nine91%
50 more
  • Dune: Part Three83%▼ 1
  • You Can See Everything79%▼ 1
  • Project Hail Mary76%▼ 1
  • The Debut74%
  • The Invite62%▲ 2
  • I Play Rocky57%▲ 1
  • Artificial56%▲ 1
  • All of a Sudden37%
  • Fjord35%
  • Obsession33%
  • Elsinore30%▲ 1
  • Wildwood26%▼ 4
  • Digger23%
  • Club Kid22%▼ 2
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth22%▲ 1
  • Being Heumann18%
  • Behemoth16%
  • Possible Love16%
  • Michael12%
  • Primetime10%
  • Ink8%▲ 2
  • Josephine7%▲ 1
  • Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother7%▼ 1
  • Sense and Sensibility6%
  • Saturn Return5%
  • Werwulf4%▼ 2
  • Minotaur4%
  • Misty Green4%▲ 1
  • The Drama4%
  • Paper Tiger4%
  • The Whisper Man4%
  • Clarissa4%▲ 1
  • Disclosure Day3%
  • Cry to Heaven3%▼ 1
  • Parallel Tales3%
  • 1949 / Fatherland3%▼ 1
  • Rose3%
  • The Uprising3%
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day3%
  • Avengers: Doomsday3%▼ 1
  • The Death of Robin Hood3%
  • Backrooms3%▲ 1
  • The Entertainment System Is Down2%
  • Hope2%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew2%▲ 1
  • I Love Boosters2%
  • Jack of Spades2%
  • Tony2%
  • Bucking Fastard2%
  • The Social Reckoning1%

Oscar nominees: Best Director (2027)

95%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan95%▼ 3
  • Javier Calvo89%
  • Martin McDonagh70%▼ 1
24 more
  • Nathan Fielder65%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve56%▼ 1
  • Olivia Wilde52%▲ 2
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi33%
  • Cristian Mungiu28%
  • Jesse Eisenberg24%▲ 1
  • Phil Lord12%▲ 1
  • Alejandro González Iñárritu12%▲ 1
  • Curry Barker10%▲ 1
  • Christopher Miller10%▲ 1
  • David Fincher9%▲ 2
  • Paweł Pawlikowski8%
  • Tony Gilroy8%
  • Steven Spielberg7%
  • Mike Leigh5%▼ 8
  • Andrew Haigh5%
  • Joel Coen5%
  • Ben Affleck5%▲ 2
  • Na Hong-jin4%▼ 1
  • Greta Gerwig4%
  • Beth de Araujo4%
  • Danny Boyle3%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen3%
  • James Ashcroft2%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions