Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Feb 28, 2027 · $693 today · $19.7K traded · $3.5K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

The odds

35%No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
  • Yoav Ben-Tzur13%▼ 12
  • Michael Malchieli8%▼ 2
  • Orit Farkash-Hacohen7%
  • Miri Regev6%▼ 1
  • Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)5%▼ 1
  • Aryeh Deri4%
  • Ayelet Shaked4%
  • Israel Katz3%▼ 1
  • Yariv Levin3%
  • Yair Golan3%
  • Moshe Arbel3%
6 more
  • Meirav Cohen3%
  • Keren Terner Eyal2%
  • Oded Forer2%
  • Avigdor Lieberman1%
  • Eli Cohen<1%
  • Yoram Cohen<1%

How the odds have moved

No Next Minister by Feb 28: 49% on Oct 20, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 20, 9 PM ETNo Next Minister by Feb 28: 49% → 31%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
No Next Minister by Feb 28 35% 30¢ 51¢ $1.96 $8.6K
Yoav Ben-Tzur 13% ▼ 12 13¢ 14¢ $7.14 $2.3K
Michael Malchieli 8% ▼ 2 8¢ 12¢ $8.55 $2.6K
Orit Farkash-Hacohen 7% 2¢ 13¢ $7.46 $250
Miri Regev 6% ▼ 1 1¢ 13¢ $7.63 $941
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) 5% ▼ 1 3¢ 9¢ $11.11 $233
Aryeh Deri 4% 0¢ 10¢ $10.00 $352
Ayelet Shaked 4% 1¢ 8¢ $12.99 $632
Israel Katz 3% ▼ 1 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 $1.7K
Yariv Levin 3% 0¢ 6¢ $15.87 $173
Yair Golan 3% 0¢ 6¢ $15.63 $107
Moshe Arbel 3% 1¢ 6¢ $18.18 $938
Meirav Cohen 3% 0¢ 6¢ $16.95 $101
Keren Terner Eyal 2% 0¢ 4¢ $25.64 $186
Oded Forer 2% 0¢ 4¢ $27.03 $101
Avigdor Lieberman 1% 0¢ 2¢ $50.00 $156
Eli Cohen <1% 0¢ 1¢ $144
Yoram Cohen <1% 0¢ 1¢ $81

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Israeli Minister of Interior, Yoav Ben-Tzur, Michael Malchieli

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All middle east ›
World › Middle East

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

56%Gadi Eizenkot
  • Gadi Eizenkot56%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu28%
  • Naftali Bennett10%▼ 1
16 more
  • Avigdor Lieberman3%▲ 1
  • Moshe Feiglin<1%
  • Israel Katz<1%
  • Yossi Cohen<1%
  • Itamar Ben Gvir<1%
  • Amir Ohana<1%
  • Yair Lapid<1%
  • Benny Gantz<1%
  • Gideon Sa’ar<1%
  • Yariv Levin<1%
  • Ayelet Shaked<1%
  • Yoaz Hendel<1%
  • Nir Barkat<1%
  • Gilad Erdan<1%
  • Ofer Winter<1%
  • Yair Golan<1%
PolymarketCloses today 11:59 PM ET · $3.4M today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions