Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Traded
✓ September 18
>99%
▲ 6
100¢
100¢
$1.6K
September 19
<1%
▼ 26
0¢
$394
September 20
9%
4¢
13¢
$7.75
$43.1K
September 21
23%
▼ 2
88¢
96¢
$1.04
$2.8K
September 22
23%
0¢
8¢
$12.50
$2.6K
✓ September 23
>99%
100¢
100¢
$2.2K
September 24
23%
4¢
11¢
$9.17
$963
September 25
<1%
▼ 8
1¢
$100.00
$58.6K
September 26
23%
2¢
8¢
$12.66
$15.9K
September 27
23%
3¢
13¢
$7.69
$662
September 28
61%
▲ 1
81¢
92¢
$1.09
$26K
September 29
61%
▲ 2
86¢
92¢
$1.09
$11.3K
September 30
61%
3¢
13¢
$7.69
$18.8K
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Iran Fires Cruise Missile at Vessel in Hormuz; Launcher at Sirik StruckHouse of Saud · 9 h agoAxar.az, citing Fars and the maritime tracking service Beam Tracker, reported that a ship transiting the Strait was hit by an anti-ship cruise missile fired from Sirik Island in Iran’s Hormuzgan province. No UKMTO advisory had been issued…
Iran Restricts Hormuz as 492 Ships Wait; Houthis Claim Yanbu StrikeHouse of Saud · 19 h agoOn October 25, the IRGC escalated further with a cruise missile strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, firing the weapon from a launcher on Sirik Island, according to Axar.az and maritime tracker Beam Tracker. An unidentified missile…
Iran warns of ‘unimaginable’ response to US aggression as tensions rise over HormuzMiddle East Eye · 18 h agoIran has issued a warning to the United States that any new act of militarism would lead to an "unimaginable" response, with parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf saying that Iran would not back down if attacked. Addressing parliament…
Fears grow for Iranian athletes on death row as mountaineer latest to be hangedthe Guardian · 76 min agoTwo sportspeople have been executed in the past month and at least six more face the same fate, says activist group Fears are growing for more Iranian athletes facing execution after mountain climber Ali-Sina Mostafavi became the latest in…
British official says UK is ‘determined’ to harden defense against IranFox News · 9 h agoBritish Ambassador to the U.S. Christian Turner discusses the U.K.'s military readiness and defense strategy amid global tensions on ‘Special Report.’ ... British official says UK is ‘determined’ to harden defense against Iran British…
US intelligence memo warns Iran is ramping up threats against Americans abroadFox News · 7 h agoRet. Navy Capt. Brent Sadler and Israeli special ops veteran Aaron Cohen discuss a U.S. intelligence memo warning that Iran is ramping up efforts to target Americans abroad on 'Fox News @ Night.' ... US intelligence memo warns Iran is…
Walter Reed hospital visit highlights toll of Iran-backed roadside bombsFox News · 10 h agoTrump recounts a Walter Reed hospital visit with a severely injured soldier from New Jersey. The segment details the devastating impact of plastic roadside bombs in Iraq and points to Iran's role in manufacturing the weapons. Walter Reed…
Trump backs Netanyahu as Iran tensions loom over Israeli electionFox News · 16 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on President Donald Trump's backing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli election. Ret. USAF Brigadier Gen. John Teichert provides analysis on 'America…
Netanyahu reportedly sought to resume strikes against Iran before Israeli electionsFox News · 14 h agoFox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst reports on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reported push to resume strikes against Iran on 'The Story.' ... Netanyahu reportedly sought to resume strikes against Iran before…
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions
