Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

Polymarket World › Middle East Closes Sat 11:59 PM ET · $4.2K today · $60.4K traded · $1.9K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

The odds

54%October 2
  • October 254%▲ 19
  • October 454%▲ 4
  • October 554%
  • October 1154%▲ 3
  • October 1554%▼ 2
  • October 1754%▼ 6
  • October 1854%▲ 1
  • October 1954%
  • October 2054%▼ 37
  • October 2162%▲ 25
  • October 2262%▲ 3
  • October 2362%▲ 14
8 more
  • October 2462%▼ 22
  • October 2562%▼ 14
  • October 2662%▲ 41
  • October 2762%▼ 13
  • October 2862%▲ 9
  • October 2971%▲ 21
  • October 3075%▲ 25
  • October 3178%▲ 28

How the odds have moved

October 21: 52% on Oct 20, 62% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 9 PM ETOctober 21: 51% → 62%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 8 PM ETOctober 21: 50% → 57%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ October 1 >99% ▲ 7 99¢ 100¢ $2K
October 2 54% ▲ 19 61¢ 100¢ $2.6K
✓ October 3 >99% ▲ 5 100¢ 100¢ $1.6K
October 4 54% ▲ 4 40¢ 100¢ $1.3K
October 5 54% 51¢ 99¢ $1.01 $999
✓ October 6 >99% ▲ 7 100¢ 100¢ $4.2K
✓ October 7 >99% ▲ 2 100¢ 100¢ $2.2K
October 8 <1% ▼ 13 0¢ 10¢ $10.31 $934
✓ October 9 >99% ▲ 36 100¢ 100¢ $674
✓ October 10 >99% ▲ 40 99¢ 100¢ $353
October 11 54% ▲ 3 33¢ 100¢ $933
✓ October 12 >99% ▲ 38 88¢ 100¢ $3.6K
✓ October 13 >99% ▲ 70 100¢ 100¢ $23.7K
October 14 <1% ▲ 14 80¢ $1.25 $1.3K
October 15 54% ▼ 2 2¢ 74¢ $1.35 $1.6K
✓ October 16 >99% ▲ 32 100¢ 100¢ $1.7K
October 17 54% ▼ 6 1¢ $100.00 $1.3K
October 18 54% ▲ 1 100¢ 100¢ $1.1K
October 19 54% 0¢ 5¢ $20.00 $623
October 20 54% ▼ 37 8¢ 100¢ $1.3K
October 21 62% ▲ 25 100¢ 100¢ $1.1K
October 22 62% ▲ 3 100¢ 100¢ $2K
October 23 62% ▲ 14 47¢ 100¢ $969
October 24 62% ▼ 22 1¢ 41¢ $2.44 $1.4K
October 25 62% ▼ 14 28¢ 61¢ $1.64 $353
October 26 62% ▲ 41 46¢ 72¢ $1.39 $401
October 27 62% ▼ 13 25¢ 49¢ $2.04 $180
October 28 62% ▲ 9 49¢ 68¢ $1.47 $80
October 29 71% ▲ 21 46¢ 95¢ $1.05 $20
October 30 75% ▲ 25 55¢ 95¢ $1.05
October 31 78% ▲ 28 61¢ 94¢ $1.06 $40

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iran, Shipping, Hormuz

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PolymarketCloses tomorrow 11:59 PM ET · $3M today

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions