Oscar Winner: Best Director (2027)

Kalshi Culture › Awards Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $434 today · $58.5K traded · $38.4K at stake · prices read 14 min ago

The odds

57%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan57%▼ 4
  • Denis Villeneuve16%
  • Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi13%▼ 2
  • Martin McDonagh4%
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu3%▼ 2
  • Phil Lord & Christopher Miller2%
  • Danny Boyle1%
  • Na Hong-jin1%
  • Andrew Haigh1%
  • Steven Spielberg1%
  • David Fincher1%
  • Joel Coen1%
6 more
  • Tie1%
  • Janus Metz Pedersen1%
  • Ben Affleck1%
  • Olivia Wilde1%
  • Mike Leigh1%
  • Jesse Eisenberg1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Christopher Nolan 57% ▼ 4 57¢ 58¢ $1.72 86.8K
Denis Villeneuve 16% 15¢ 16¢ $6.25 31.3K
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi 13% ▼ 2 12¢ 13¢ $7.69 13.7K
Martin McDonagh 4% 3¢ 4¢ $25.00 20.7K
Alejandro G. Iñárritu 3% ▼ 2 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 25.8K
Phil Lord & Christopher Miller 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 12.0K
Danny Boyle 1% 1¢ $100.00 9.0K
Na Hong-jin 1% 1¢ $100.00 989
Andrew Haigh 1% 1¢ $100.00 315
Steven Spielberg 1% 1¢ $100.00 5.5K
David Fincher 1% 1¢ $100.00 11.3K
Joel Coen 1% 1¢ $100.00 779
Tie 1% 1¢ $100.00 3.6K
Janus Metz Pedersen 1% 1¢ $100.00 140
Ben Affleck 1% 1¢ $100.00 293
Olivia Wilde 1% 1¢ $100.00 9.1K
Mike Leigh 1% 1¢ $100.00 1.3K
Jesse Eisenberg 1% 1¢ $100.00 2.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The same question on Polymarket

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

63%Christopher Nolan
  • Christopher Nolan63%▲ 1
  • Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi13%▲ 1
  • Denis Villeneuve11%▲ 2
  • Lance Oppenheim5%▲ 5
17 more
  • Peter Farrelly5%▼ 2
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu3%
  • Martin McDonagh1%
  • Phil Lord or Christopher Miller1%
  • Olivia Wilde1%
  • Steven Spielberg1%▲ 1
  • Aaron Sorkin1%
  • Jesse Eisenberg1%
  • David O. Russell1%
  • Cristian Mungiu1%
  • Andrew Haigh<1%
  • Joel Coen<1%
  • David Fincher<1%
  • Mike Leigh<1%
  • Ryusuke Hamaguchi<1%
  • Bassam Tariq<1%
  • Jordan Firstman<1%
PolymarketCloses Jun 30, 2027 · $263 today · $46.7K traded

Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.

The news: Oscars, Academy Awards, Best Director

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Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

97%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey97%
  • La Bola Negra95%▲ 1
  • Wild Horse Nine92%▲ 1
19 more
  • Dune: Part Three87%
  • The Debut81%▼ 2
  • Project Hail Mary77%▼ 3
  • You Can See Everything71%▼ 3
  • The Invite58%▲ 1
  • Fjord39%
  • I Play Rocky39%▲ 1
  • All of a Sudden36%
  • Obsession34%
  • Elsinore25%▲ 1
  • Behemoth!21%▲ 1
  • Digger20%
  • The Adventures of Cliff Booth19%▲ 2
  • Michael13%
  • Disclosure Day8%▲ 1
  • Avengers: Doomsday8%▼ 1
  • Fatherland4%
  • The Social Reckoning4%▼ 1
  • The Drama3%
Culture › Awards

Oscar Winner: Best Picture (2027)

46%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey46%▲ 1
  • The Black Ball18%
  • You Can See Everything15%▼ 7
38 more
  • Dune: Part Three9%
  • Wild Horse Nine2%
  • Digger1%
  • Artificial1%
  • Project Hail Mary<1%
  • Disclosure Day<1%
  • Fjord<1%
  • The Social Reckoning<1%
  • Michael<1%
  • The Entertainment System Is Down<1%
  • Narnia: The Magician's Nephew<1%
  • Werwulf<1%
  • Behemoth<1%
  • Josephine<1%
  • Sense and Sensibility<1%
  • I Love Boosters<1%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth<1%
  • Avengers: Doomsday<1%
  • The Death of Robin Hood<1%
  • The Drama<1%
  • Ink<1%
  • All of a Sudden<1%
  • Cry to Heaven<1%
  • Tie<1%
  • 1949 / Fatherland<1%
  • Paper Tiger<1%
  • Hope<1%
  • Minotaur<1%
  • Parallel Tales<1%
  • Jack of Spades<1%
  • Obsession<1%
  • The Debut<1%
  • Elsinore<1%
  • The Invite<1%
  • Club Kid<1%
  • Being Heumann<1%
  • Primetime<1%
  • Tender Loving Care<1%
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Film Editing Nominations

85%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey85%
  • The Black Ball77%
  • Wild Horse Nine60%▲ 1
10 more
  • Dune: Part Three44%▼ 18
  • Project Hail Mary39%▲ 5
  • You Can See Everything37%▼ 4
  • Fjord31%▼ 1
  • Digger30%▲ 14
  • The Debut27%▼ 2
  • The Invite24%▼ 3
  • Ink21%
  • Club Kid18%▲ 7
  • Elsinore17%▼ 7
Culture › Awards

Oscars 2027: Best Original Score Nominations

94%The Odyssey
  • The Odyssey94%▲ 1
  • Disclosure Day72%▼ 1
  • The Black Ball70%▼ 5
10 more
  • Dune: Part Three64%▼ 6
  • Project Hail Mary59%▼ 1
  • Behemoth!31%▼ 16
  • Wild Horse Nine27%▲ 2
  • You Can See Everything13%
  • The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth11%▲ 1
  • Whalefall7%▲ 2
  • The Social Reckoning6%
  • The Drama5%
  • The Mandalorian and Grogu3%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.