Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/12 - 10/18)
21.3median
5125
Median 21.3Middle half 19.8 – 23.4
Install
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
The odds
23.8median
1060
Median 23.8Middle half 18.4 – 28.9
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 92% | ▲ 4 | 91¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 8.5K |
| Above 20 | 68% | 67¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 2.0K | |
| Above 25 | 45% | ▲ 9 | 44¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 1.8K |
| Above 30 | 20% | ▲ 1 | 19¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 3.1K |
| Above 35 | 10% | ▲ 2 | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 3.1K |
| Above 40 | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 5.1K |
| Above 50 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.