Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

FDA & drugs news

More news ›

New bipartisan bill aims to speed up clinical trials for rare disease treatmentsCNBC · 9 h ago
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT · 11 h ago
San Francisco reports first fatal overdose from synthetic opioid sold in gas stations, smoke shopsCBS News · 20 h ago
Diabetes and ADHD drugs to be tested on Alzheimer's patients in new studyBBC News · 21 h ago
SF man dies after taking kratom-like ‘gas station heroin’ as cops descend on smoke shopsCalifornia Post · 23 h ago
Vaccine Watch: Online Report Claims Vaccine Advisor Made MillionsCBS News · 25 h ago
GSK picks up hep B drug approvalSTAT · 29 h ago
We bought what was sold as an experimental weight loss drug. Then we tested it.CBS News · 30 h ago

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.