Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? (Before 2027)
16%chance
Install
FDA decision: Venglustat by Sanofi (in 2026)
The odds
82%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 82% on Oct 19, 82% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82% | 78¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 969 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FDA, Venglustat, Sanofi
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FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses… -
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.Estrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches. -
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts… -
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that… -
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted… -
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on… -
Nasal decongestant phenylephrine, found in many over-the-counter cold and allergy medicines, doesn't work, FDA experts sayUpdated on: September 16, 2023 / 8:59 PM EDT / AP The leading decongestant used by millions of Americans looking for relief from a stuffy nose is likely no better than a dummy pill, according to government experts who reviewed the latest… -
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023In breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall… -
Enable Injections, Sanofi obtain approval for on-body myeloma therapy in JapanOctober 22, 2026 By Conor Hale According to Enable, the CirCLIQ approval also marks the first in Japan for an anticancer treatment delivered by an on-body injector. The therapy has collected similar firsts this year in the U.S. and Europe… -
FDA approves ‘breakthrough’ melanoma drugThe Food and Drug Administration has granted accelerated approval to pembrolizumab (Keytruda, Merck) for treatment of advanced or unresectable melanoma in patients who have stopped responding to other drugs. The five prior FDA approvals… -
Tricog deepens partnerships with Sanofi and OMRON Healthcare to expand AI-led cardiac care across emerging marketsAn ECG can be recorded in minutes, but in most parts of the world, getting it interpreted by a specialist and ensuring patients receive the right care in time remains a challenge. Cardiovascular disease causes over 20 million deaths… -
Aardvark Therapeutics : FDA Lifts ARD-101 Clinical HaltPublished on 10/22/2026 at 04:45 pm EDT - Modified on 10/22/2026 at 04:46 pm EDT Aardvark Therapeutics said the Food and Drug Administration lifted the clinical hold on ARD-101 for the treatment of hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions