When will the FDA approve Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin? (COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression)

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $14.9K traded · $6.8K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

88%Before 2028

Before 202888%▼ 1
Before July 202785%
Before October 202785%▼ 1
Before Mar 1, 202762%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202724%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before 2028: 89% on Oct 20, 88% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2028	88%	▼ 1	84¢	92¢	$1.09	1.1K
Before July 2027	85%		84¢	86¢	$1.16	8.7K
Before October 2027	85%	▼ 1	81¢	89¢	$1.12	2.4K
Before Mar 1, 2027	62%	▼ 1	58¢	65¢	$1.54	4.5K
Before Jan 1, 2027	24%	▼ 1	23¢	24¢	$4.17	7.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, Compass Pathways' COMP360 Psilocybin, COMP360 Psilocybin

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New program educates healthcare professionals about treatment-resistant depressionhealiotwo · 3 days agoGiven the complexity and burden of treatment-resistant depression, educational initiatives can help clinicians understand its neurobiology and available care pathways to help improve outcomes, according to a press release. According to the…
Treatment-Resistant Depression Treatment Market Approaches USD 5.56 Billion by 2035 as Care Options Diversify - SNS InsideropenPR.com · 4 days agoTreatment Resistant Depression Treatment Market generated an estimated USD 2 28 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 5 56 billion by 2035 according to SNS Insider The research projects a CAGR of 9 33 from 2026 to…
Sacramento Patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression Can Now Get Five-Day SAINT Brain Stimulation Therapy at UC Davis HealthMedical Daily · 4 days agoUC Davis Health has begun offering SAINT, a five-day accelerated form of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) for severe depression, at its Advanced Psychiatric Therapeutics clinic in East Sacramento, the health system announced on Oct…
FDA clears brain scan PTSD therapy in major shiftenmnews.com · 2 days agoA new PTSD treatment built around brain mapping and magnetic stimulation has cleared a key federal hurdle, setting up what its developers say could become a personalized alternative for patients who have not improved with standard care…
Asking Eric: Friends and counselors tell husband to leave, but he won’tPittsburgh Post-Gazette · 15 h agoDear Eric: I am 75 years old. My wife and I have been married for 45 years. She suffers from treatment-resistant depression and/or bipolar disorder. My...
Asking Eric: Everyone is telling me to leave my wife, but I can’tAnchorage Daily News · 9 h agoDear Eric: I am 75 years old. My wife and I have been married for 45 years. My wife suffers from treatment-resistant depression and/or bipolar disorder. My wife has been undergoing treatment of various kinds for 30 years without success…
GH Research Remains Undervalued Ahead Of Pivotal Phase III ProgramSeeking Alpha · 3 days agoGH Research looks undervalued as GH001 targets treatment-resistant depression with strong potential. Click to read this bullish thesis on the GHRS stock. - GH Research remains significantly undervalued due to the large unmet need in…
After a long, strange trip, this CEO is close to taking a psilocybin pill to marketBusiness Insider · 9 h agoIn 2022, Kabir Nath had a cushy executive job at a pharmaceutical firm that developed anti-psychotic medication. Then he got a call from a scrappy upstart with a patent on a synthetic version of psilocybin — the active ingredient in magic…
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 2 days agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
Compass Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) Stock Price Down 1.8% – Time to Sell?Markets Daily · 28 h agoPosted by Tristan Rich on Oct 24th, 2026 Compass Pathways PLC Sponsored ADR (NASDAQ:CMPS – Get Free Report) dropped 1.8% during trading on Thursday. The company traded as low as $11.43 and last traded at $11.63. Approximately 1,340,930…
Compass Pathways: Built The FDA's Way, Valued At 0.57x Spravato's SalesSeeking Alpha · 4 days ago(NASDAQ:CMPS) Seeking Alpha - COMPASS Pathways is rated Buy, with high risk, based on strong trial design and imminent FDA review for COMP360 in treatment-resistant depression. - COMP360’s Phase 3 trials matched FDA guidance, achieved…
Are psychedelics going mainstream? Meet the doctors, scientists and even PTA moms turning to drugs to enhance their mindsNew York Post · 5 days agoAustin, Texas, is known for keeping things weird, but last week, the city got downright trippy when 600 people descended on it to expand their minds. There were neuroscientists and researchers, wellness gurus and biohackers, seasoned…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. Food and Drug Administration., FDA, Compass Pathways

Trading closesDec 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$14.9K (24,205 contracts)

This week$245

At stake$6.8K

In the news50 headlines today, 831 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves COMP360 Psilocybin for Treatment-Resistant Depression for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions