Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? (Before 2027)
16%chance▲ 1
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FDA decision: Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics (in 2026)
The odds
55%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 47% on Oct 20, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 51¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 9.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FDA, Summit Therapeutics, Ivonescimab
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Lunit and Summit Therapeutics Announce Agreement to Apply AI-powered SCOPE IO Platform for Tumor Microenvironment Analysis in Immuno-Oncology DevelopmentOct 23, 2026, 21:26 ET Research Will Use Lunit's AI-powered Pathology Platform to Analyze H&E Whole-Slide Images and Generate Scalable Insights into Tumor Microenvironment Biology SEOUL, South Korea, Oct. 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Lunit… -
Summit Therapeutics and ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group Enter into Phase II / III Clinical Trial Collaboration to Evaluate Ivonescimab in First-Line Biliary Tract CancerClinical Trial Site Activations in the United States Expected to Begin Q4 2026 About Biliary Tract Cancer Ivonescimab was invented by Akeso Inc. (HKEX Code: 9926.HK) and is currently utilized in multiple Phase III clinical trials. Over… -
Summit Expands Ivonescimab Development Into Biliary Tract CancerMerck's Keytruda and AstraZeneca's Imfinzi are FDA-approved immunotherapies for multiple cancers, including lung cancer and BTC, with additional indications varying by drug. Through this study, Summit aims to determine whether ivonescimab… -
Akeso and Summit Advance Ivonescimab into Seventh Global Registrational Trial Targeting Biliary Tract CancerBioPharma APAC - Akeso and Summit Advance Ivonescimab into Seventh Global Registrational Trial Targeting Biliary Tract Cancer 23 October 2026 | Friday | News Akeso, Inc. announced that Summit Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: SMMT), its global… - Can Expanding Ivonescimab Development Unlock SMMT's Growth Potential?Summit Therapeutics SMMT is working to expand ivonescimab's growth potential beyond non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), its lead development area. The company is advancing the investigational drug across several other cancer types…
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ECOG-ACRIN opens trial testing ivonescimab for aggressive bile duct cancerEA2251 will evaluate ivonescimab combined with gemcitabine and cisplatin chemotherapy (GemCis) compared with pembrolizumab or durvalumab combined with GemCis in a U.S. population. Overall survival is the primary endpoint. The reported… -
Recent Research Analysts’ Ratings Updates for Summit Therapeutics (SMMT)Several brokerages have updated their recommendations and price targets on shares of Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SMMT) in the last few weeks: Summit Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing… -
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses… - Summit Therapeutics proposes 1B more authorized sharesSalesforce Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Braze The proposal is intended to satisfy Summit's December 31, 2026 contractual deadline for authorizing shares needed for preferred-stock conversion. Summit Therapeutics Inc. is asking…
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The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.Estrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches. -
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts… -
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions