Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2034 · $1.1K traded · $192 at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

83%Before 2035

Before 203583%
Before 203479%
Before 203375%
Before 203272%
Before 203165%
Before 203054%

How the odds have moved

Before 2035: 83% on Oct 20, 83% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2035	83%	79¢	87¢	$1.15	332
Before 2034	79%	77¢	81¢	$1.23	48.00
Before 2033	75%	71¢	79¢	$1.27	2.00
Before 2032	72%	68¢	76¢	$1.32	35.00
Before 2031	65%	61¢	69¢	$1.45	117
Before 2030	54%	50¢	57¢	$1.75	1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA, VERVE

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Alice Eve Signs With Verve, Boards Indie 'The Long Run'Deadline · 2 days agoEXCLUSIVE: Actress Alice Eve has inked with Verve and lined up a new project: a grief-themed indie called The Long Run that’s slated for production this fall. In The Long Run, Eve plays Claire Stanton, a woman shattered by the loss of her…
Verve TherapeuticsMedCity News · 87 min agoEli Lilly is acquiring Beam Therapeutics’ opt-in rights to three Verve Therapeutics gene-editing therapies for cardiovascular conditions. The deal comes four months after the pharmaceutical giant began a partnership on a preclinical Verve…
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 45 h agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
The Dropout review: Rise and fall of Silicon Valley darling Elizabeth Holmes told with riveting verveThe Irish Times · 5 h agoAmerican capitalism’s obsession with “disrupters” and boy-wonders in designer hoodies has led to some dark places. Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg was praised as the evolutionary zenith of nerd-dom until his mantra of “move fast and break…
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News · 3 days agoFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses…
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingNew York Post · 46 h agoA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted…
Glovo, Verve partner to deliver greater value to Nigerian customersbusinessday.ng · 23 h agoGlovo, a leading multi-category technology company, has announced a strategic partnership with Verve International, a subsidiary of Interswitch Group and Glovo, a leading multi-category technology company, has announced a strategic…
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketCBS News · 3 days agoNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that…
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on…
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023@AJMC_Journal · 31 h agoIn breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall…
FDA Approves Subcutaneous Risankizumab Induction for Crohn’s Disease@MDMagazine · 5 h agoApproval rests on the phase 3 AFFIRM trial, in which 56% of patients reached clinical remission at week 12 vs 30% with placebo. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a subcutaneous induction regimen of risankizumab-rzaa…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFood and Drug Administration

Trading closesDec 31, 2034 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1K (1,736 contracts)

At stake$192

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves VERVE-102 for marketing before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions