Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
68%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202768%
- Before Jul 1, 202793%
- Before Jan 1, 202893%
Install
Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?
The odds
Sep 4, 2027even chance by
- Before Apr 1, 20274%
- Before Jul 1, 202714%
- Before Oct 1, 202766%
- Before Jan 1, 202888%
- Before Jul 1, 202895%
How the odds have moved
Before Apr 1, 2027: 4% on Oct 20, 4% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 4% | 8¢ | $12.50 | |||
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 14% | 9¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 37.00 | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 66% | 63¢ | 68¢ | $1.47 | 873 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 88% | 83¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 1.2K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 95% | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: FDA, V940, KEYTRUDA
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FDA Grants Traditional Approval to Keytruda for TMB-H Solid TumorsThe FDA grants traditional approval to Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex for TMB-H solid tumors, updating the threshold to at least 13 mutations per megabase. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted traditional approval to… -
FDA Raises Tumor Mutational Burden Threshold for Keytruda in Traditional Solid Tumor ApprovalGenomeWeb FDA Raises Tumor Mutational Burden Threshold for Keytruda in Traditional Solid Tumor Approval -
The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.Estrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches. -
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses… -
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted… -
BioInvent's BI-1808 and KEYTRUDA(R) Induce Durable Responses in Heavily Pretreated Platinum-Resistant Ovarian CancerBioInvent International (STO:BINV) - Updated efficacy data in 34 evaluable patients with a chemotherapy-free regimen; randomized Part C will add BI-1808 to the new standard of care 24% objective response rate (8 of 34 evaluable patients: 1… -
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts… -
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that… -
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on… -
Merck (MRK) Wins EU Approval For KEYTRUDA Plus Padcev In Bladder CancerMerck (NYSE:MRK) received European Commission approval for KEYTRUDA plus Padcev as a perioperative therapy for resectable muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the EU. The decision covers patients regardless of cisplatin eligibility, widening… -
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023In breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall… -
Nasal decongestant phenylephrine, found in many over-the-counter cold and allergy medicines, doesn't work, FDA experts sayUpdated on: September 16, 2023 / 8:59 PM EDT / AP The leading decongestant used by millions of Americans looking for relief from a stuffy nose is likely no better than a dummy pill, according to government experts who reviewed the latest…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions