Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Jun 30, 2027 · $527 traded · $362 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

39%Before Jul 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 202712%
Before Jul 1, 202739%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 11% on Oct 19, 12% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Oct 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	8.7K
Before Jan 1, 2027	12%		8¢	15¢	$6.67	385
Before Jul 1, 2027	39%	▼ 1	35¢	42¢	$2.38	1.0K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA

Search ›

The FDA says there’s no estrogen patch shortage. Women are struggling to fill prescriptions.NBC News · 38 h agoEstrogen patches are the most commonly reported shortage in the U.S., but the FDA says it’s working to boost supply. Women across the country are still struggling to fill prescriptions for estrogen patches.
FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugsFox News · 3 days agoFox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses the recall of certain compounded GLP-1 medications over sterility concerns. FDA issues recall over compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs Fox News contributor Dr. Stephanie Widmer discusses…
MDMA-assisted therapy could get FDA approval as soon as January, top advocate predicts — but there’s a major problem loomingNew York Post · 39 h agoA drug once synonymous with rave culture could soon be making its way into a very different setting: the therapist’s office. A leading psychedelics advocate is “very optimistic” the Food and Drug Administration could approve MDMA-assisted…
FDA has finalized its guidance on apps related to drugsSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT is a media company focused on finding and telling compelling stories about health, medicine, and scientific discovery. We produce daily news, investigative articles, and narrative projects in addition to multimedia features, podcasts…
FDA to pull common but ineffective cold medicine from marketCBS News · 3 days agoNovember 7, 2024 / 12:32 PM EST / CBS News The Food and Drug Administration announced Wednesday that it would seek to pull a widely used ingredient in cough and cold medicines from the market, after the agency's scientists concluded that…
Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addictionSTAT · 3 days agoSTAT Telehealth leapfrogs FDA approval with off-label GLP-1 prescriptions for addiction Online platforms, experts say, can shift the burden of vetting unapproved drugs on to patients Katie covers the impact of health technology on…
Recent FDA Actions: Spring 2023@AJMC_Journal · 25 h agoIn breast cancer, approval for elacestrant and a new indication for sacituzumab govitecan; approval for pirtobrutinib for mantle cell lymphoma. The primary end point in the study was PFS, and secondary end points included OS, overall…
Nasal decongestant phenylephrine, found in many over-the-counter cold and allergy medicines, doesn't work, FDA experts sayCBS News · 3 days agoUpdated on: September 16, 2023 / 8:59 PM EDT / AP The leading decongestant used by millions of Americans looking for relief from a stuffy nose is likely no better than a dummy pill, according to government experts who reviewed the latest…
FDA approves once-weekly insulin icodec for pediatric T2D@onclive · 8 h agoThe FDA approved insulin icodec-abae for children 10+ with T2D, based on adult ONWARDS data and a single-dose pediatric pharmacokinetic study. "Children with type 2 diabetes face an aggressive disease trajectory," said Eda Cengiz, MD, MHS…
FDA Approved Agents for Lupus Nephritis: Belimumab and Voclosporin@AJMC_Journal · 16 h agoGerman Hernandez, MD, FASN, FACP, and Ellen Ginzler, MD, MPH, provide insight into the FDA approved therapies for lupus nephritis, belimumab and voclosporin, including an overview of clinical evidence, mechanism of action, and patient…
New type of sunscreen hit shelves months after FDA approvalKIRO 7 News Seattle · 14 h agoPeople who spend hours in the sun have a new line of defense against the harmful rays: the first new type of sunscreen in a quarter century. The newest type of sunscreen approved in the U.S. is finally hitting store shelves. It protects…
FDA approves ‘breakthrough’ melanoma drug@DermTimesNow · 44 h agoThe Food and Drug Administration has granted accelerated approval to pembrolizumab (Keytruda, Merck) for treatment of advanced or unresectable melanoma in patients who have stopped responding to other drugs. The five prior FDA approvals…

Related markets

All fda & drugs ›

Health › FDA & drugs

Will the FDA approve CagriSema?

68%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Jan 1, 202768%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202793%
Before Jan 1, 202893%

Health › FDA & drugs

Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157)?

Sep 4, 2027even chance by

Before Apr 1, 20274%
Before Jul 1, 202714%
Before Oct 1, 202766%

2 more

Before Jan 1, 202888%
Before Jul 1, 202895%

Health › FDA & drugs

Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?

Nov 8, 2028even chance by

Before Jan 1, 202710%
Before Jan 1, 202842%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202952%▼ 1

3 more

Before Jan 1, 203053%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 203153%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 203253%

Health › FDA & drugs

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? (Before 2027)

16%chance▲ 1

Health › FDA & drugs

When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?

72%before April 2027

before April 202772%
before 202751%
before December30%▼ 1

1 more

before November3%

Health › FDA & drugs

FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)

92%chance▼ 1

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFood and Drug Administration

Trading closesJun 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$527 (10,132 contracts)

This week$1

At stake$362

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the FDA approves cytisinicline for smoking cessation for marketing before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.