Predictions › News Topics › Politics Supreme Court and courts The Supreme Court's cases and rulings and the federal courts' big decisions.
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June 30, 2027 30% ▼ 4 December 31 30%
Ilhan Omar 39% ▲ 1 Cassidy Hutchinson 30% John Brennan 25% ▼ 1 40 more Lisa Cook 14% ▼ 3 Anthony Fauci 14% ▼ 10 Fani Willis 14% Jack Smith 14% ▼ 1 Dan J. Sullivan 13% Gustavo Petro 12% ▲ 1 Letitia James 11% ▲ 1 Keith Ellison 10% Peter Strzok 10% James Clapper 10% ▲ 1 Tim Walz 10% ▼ 1 Gavin Newsom 10% Kimberly Guilfoyle 10% ▼ 2 Adam Schiff 9% Alvin Bragg 9% ▲ 1 Andrew Weissmann 9% ▼ 2 Hunter Biden 8% ▲ 1 Chris Krebs 8% E. Jean Carroll 7% ▼ 1 Lisa Monaco 7% Jacob Frey 7% ▲ 1 Miles Taylor 6% ▲ 1 Jennifer Siebel Newsom 6% ▼ 4 Mark Milley 6% ▲ 1 Liz Cheney 6% Mark Kelly 6% Hillary Clinton 6% Leon Black 6% Elissa Slotkin 5% Barack Obama 5% Christopher Wray 5% Tucker Carlson 5% ▼ 4 Reid Hoffman 5% George Soros 5% ▼ 4 Joe Kent 4% Bill Clinton 4% Jerome Powell 4% ▼ 1 Joe Biden 3% Pam Bondi 3% Chris Christie 2% December 31, 2026 2% December 31, 2027 22% Ilhan Omar 32% ▲ 8 John Brennan 21% Mahmoud Khalil 16% 22 more Anthony Fauci 9% James Clapper 9% Letitia James 8% Lee Jun-seok 7% Candace Owens 7% Lee Jae Myung 7% José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero 6% ▲ 2 Gavin Newsom 6% Susan Rice 6% ▼ 1 Lisa Cook 6% Benjamin Netanyahu 6% Adam Schiff 5% Tom Homan 5% Loretta Lynch 5% Brandon Johnson 4% Hillary Clinton 4% Pam Bondi 4% Bill Clinton 3% John Kerry 3% Joe Biden 3% Barack Obama 3% Kash Patel 3% Samuel Alito 66% ▲ 2 Clarence Thomas 47% ▲ 1 John Roberts 18% ▼ 1 6 more Sonia Sotomayor 8% ▼ 1 Elena Kagan 5% Amy Coney Barrett 5% Ketanji Brown Jackson 4% Neil Gorsuch 3% Brett Kavanaugh 3% Before Jan 1, 2027 9% Before Jul 1, 2027 36% ▼ 1 Before Jan 21, 2029 56% ▲ 2 Before 2028 44% ▲ 2 Before June 2027 19% 1 more A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
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