Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
38%December 31
- June 30, 202738%▲ 7
- December 3138%▼ 2
Install
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
The odds
31%December 31
- October 313%▼ 14
- December 3131%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $96K | |||
| October 31 | 3% | ▼ 14 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $15K |
| December 31 | 31% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | $166K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, SCOTUS
Search ›-
Catherine Herridge's fight to protect confidential sources reaches Supreme CourtThe Supreme Court is considering whether to hear an appeal from former Fox News investigative reporter Catherine Herridge to protect confidential sources. Catherine Herridge's fight to protect confidential sources reaches Supreme Court The… -
What the Supreme Court Has Said About Third-Country DeportationsOct 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM EDT Oct 26, 2026 at 11:36 AM EDT The Supreme Court is preparing to decide a major challenge to the Trump administration’s use of “third-country” deportations, a practice that allows the government to remove some… -
How the conservative Supreme Court has rewritten the rules for the midtermsVoters will pick the winners of next month’s midterm elections, but it is the conservative Supreme Court that has set the rules. Long before early voting got underway to decide control of Congress, the court exerted an unusually profound… -
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold after Supreme Court hearing on Trump ballot eligibility: "I hope the justices hold him accountable"February 8, 2024 / 3:55 PM MST / CBS Colorado "I don't believe that the president is a 'get out of jail free' card and I hope the justices hold him accountable," Griswold told reporters outside the main entrance to the Supreme Court… -
Second Amendment fight moves beyond guns with Supreme Court poised for big rulingNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Two federal court… -
Switchblade, body armor rulings reveal stakes in Supreme Court AR-15 showdownNational Association for Gun Rights President Dudley Brown says the AR-15 ban before the Supreme Court could shape challenges to restrictions on automatic knives, body armor, magazines and other defensive equipment. Switchblade, body armor… -
Supreme Court of the United States news - Today’s latest updatesThe Supreme Court cleared the way Thursday for New Hampshire to fully ban the use of student IDs for voting during the midterm elections. The Supreme Court has rejected an effort from the Trump administration to restrict some medical… -
CEC Removal Only Like Supreme Court Judge, ECI Tells Supreme Court On Gyanesh KumarECI told the Supreme Court that CEC Gyanesh Kumar can be removed only like a Supreme Court judge, while defending its functioning, Special Intensive Revision and unanimous decisions in a nearly 250-page affidavit. ECI said CEC Gyanesh… -
Follow Supreme Court opinion – RokomokotiFORMER Head of the School of Law at Fiji National University and Law Reform Commissioner Ana Rokomokoti has urged Parliament to adopt the approach taken by the Supreme Court on the constitutionally entrenched immunity provisions. Ms… -
The Supreme Court and prediction marketsWhile preparing this newsletter, the SCOTUStoday team comes across a wide variety of legal news. Still, some headlines stick with us, including this one: Convicted Australian Murderer Loses Bid to Eat Vegemite in Prison. On Oct. 21, the… -
State AGs & Supreme CourtsAUSTIN — Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and is co-founder and CEO Sam Altman, claiming the company and Altman are deceiving… WASHINGTON, D.C. — Cook County has filed its primary brief in defense of its ban on so-called… -
Important cases listed in the Supreme Court on TuesdayImportant cases listed in the Supreme Court on Tuesday, Oct 27 The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear several important matters on Tuesday, including pleas against CEC Gyanesh Kumar, the Uddhav Thackeray faction's challenge over the Shiv…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
37%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar37%▼ 4
- John Brennan23%▲ 2
- Cassidy Hutchinson23%▼ 2
40 more
- Gustavo Petro16%▲ 5
- Fani Willis13%▼ 1
- Anthony Fauci12%▼ 2
- Dan J. Sullivan12%▼ 1
- Jack Smith11%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle11%▼ 2
- Lisa Cook10%
- James Clapper10%
- Keith Ellison10%
- Peter Strzok9%
- Hunter Biden9%
- Leon Black9%▲ 3
- Miles Taylor9%
- Chris Krebs8%
- Lisa Monaco8%▲ 1
- George Soros8%▼ 1
- Gavin Newsom8%▼ 2
- Tucker Carlson7%▼ 1
- Tim Walz7%
- Alvin Bragg7%
- E. Jean Carroll7%▼ 1
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom7%▼ 2
- Pam Bondi6%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin6%▲ 1
- Jacob Frey6%
- Letitia James6%
- Adam Schiff6%▲ 1
- Mark Milley6%
- Mark Kelly6%
- Liz Cheney6%
- Joe Kent6%
- Chris Christie5%
- Andrew Weissmann5%▼ 5
- Christopher Wray5%
- Reid Hoffman5%
- Barack Obama4%
- Jerome Powell3%
- Hillary Clinton3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Joe Biden3%
Will SCOTUS rule for DHS on third-country deportations? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
79%chance▲ 21
Who will be arrested in 2026?
29%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar29%▼ 7
- John Brennan24%▲ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
22 more
- Anthony Fauci9%
- James Clapper8%
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Susan Rice6%
- Tom Homan6%
- Lisa Cook6%
- Lee Jun-seok5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu5%
- Adam Schiff5%▲ 1
- Candace Owens5%
- Hillary Clinton4%▲ 1
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero4%
- Pam Bondi4%
- Lee Jae Myung3%▼ 2
- Gavin Newsom3%▼ 1
- John Kerry3%
- Bill Clinton3%▼ 1
- Kash Patel3%
- Joe Biden3%
- Brandon Johnson2%
- Barack Obama2%
- Loretta Lynch2%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
Jun 15, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202722%▼ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202727%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202755%▲ 11
2 more
- Before Oct 1, 202755%▼ 8
- Before Jan 1, 202857%▲ 8
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions