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Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 7,089 .
Reaches 4,500 >99% Reaches 4,750 97% Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
4,000 11,000
Median 7,309 Middle half 6,408 – 8,333
Central African Republic 68% ▼ 1 South Sudan 38% ▲ 4 Somalia 30% 12 more Rwanda 22% ▼ 1 Republic of the Congo 20% ▼ 6 Burundi 17% ▼ 1 Tanzania 11% ▼ 2 Ethiopia 11% ▲ 1 Nigeria 10% ▼ 1 Zambia 8% United States 7% ▼ 1 India 7% ▼ 1 Angola 7% ▼ 1 Canada 6% ▼ 1 China 4% ▼ 1
A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.
Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use .