What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? (From 2025 to 2028)
4,824median
1,5005,500
Median 4,824
Install
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
The odds
57%Central African Republic
- Central African Republic57%
- South Sudan42%▲ 1
- Ethiopia32%▲ 8
- Somalia28%▲ 1
- Tanzania27%▼ 2
- Republic of the Congo23%▲ 1
- Rwanda21%▲ 1
- Burundi18%▲ 2
- India14%▲ 5
- United States13%▼ 7
- Canada9%▲ 1
- Zambia8%
2 more
- China7%▲ 1
- Angola7%
How the odds have moved
Central African Republic: 68% on Oct 20, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Nigeria | 99% | ▲ 90 | $1.01 | 14.5K | ||
| ✓ Kenya | 98% | $1.02 | 47.0K | |||
| Central African Republic | 57% | 57¢ | 58¢ | $1.72 | 10.5K | |
| South Sudan | 42% | ▲ 1 | 41¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 36.8K |
| Ethiopia | 32% | ▲ 8 | 29¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 12.7K |
| Somalia | 28% | ▲ 1 | 26¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | 11.2K |
| Tanzania | 27% | ▼ 2 | 29¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 9.1K |
| Republic of the Congo | 23% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 92.6K |
| Rwanda | 21% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 47.3K |
| Burundi | 18% | ▲ 2 | 17¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 11.2K |
| India | 14% | ▲ 5 | 12¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 29.8K |
| United States | 13% | ▼ 7 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 91.1K |
| Canada | 9% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 12.6K |
| Zambia | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 6.8K | |
| China | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 35.0K |
| Angola | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 3.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ebola, Central African Republic, South Sudan
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions