Above 4k: 99% on Oct 20, 98% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4k | 98% | ▲ 1 | 96¢ | $1.02 | 1.3K | |
| Above 6k | 98% | 94¢ | $1.02 | 1.5K | ||
| Above 8k | 98% | 98¢ | $1.02 | 2.5K | ||
| Above 10k | 97% | 93¢ | $1.03 | 2.9K | ||
| Above 12k | 97% | 92¢ | $1.03 | 1.6K | ||
| Above 14k | 97% | 99¢ | $1.03 | 4.7K | ||
| Above 16k | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.8K | |
| Above 18k | 96% | 93¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 4.2K | |
| Above 20k | 96% | 94¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 14.2K | |
| Above 22k | 89% | 85¢ | 92¢ | $1.09 | 2.1K | |
| Above 24k | 79% | 75¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 1.7K | |
| Above 26k | 74% | ▼ 1 | 70¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 508 |
| Above 28k | 71% | ▼ 5 | 66¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 1.7K |
| Above 30k | 71% | ▲ 39 | 36¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 1.3K |
| Above 32k | 65% | ▲ 38 | 37¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 2.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions