Will a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year? (Before January 1, 2027)

Kalshi Health › Public health Closes Dec 31 · $30 today · $4.1K traded · $2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

8%Before January 1, 2027
  • Before November 1, 20262%
  • Before December 1, 20263%▼ 1
  • Before January 1, 20278%

How the odds have moved

Before November 1, 2026: 5% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Before November 1, 2026 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 45.2K
Before December 1, 2026 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 3¢ $33.33 43.9K
Before January 1, 2027 8% 7¢ 8¢ $12.50 31.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All public health ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.