Will the US lose measles elimination status in 2026?

Kalshi Health › Public health Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $36 today · $4.4K traded · $2.7K at stake · prices read 16 min ago

The odds

81%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 78% on Oct 20, 81% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 81% ▼ 1 78¢ 83¢ $1.20 5.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: measles

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  • Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakthe Guardian · 31 h agoCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable…
  • CDC denies approval for high volume measles test, ‘prioritizing emerging technologies’the Guardian · 3 days agoA letter signed by health officials in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, asks the CDC to reconsider California and Washington asked the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in May to validate a new way to test for…
  • CDC sends disease detective to Pennsylvania to investigate measles outbreakCBS News · 3 days agoCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CDC sends…
  • Experts alarmed by ‘less transparent’ CDC as US measles deaths risethe Guardian · 3 days agoAgency declines to reveal in which state latest measles death occurred as it delays reporting other measles deaths The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added a third measles death to its dashboard on Wednesday, but the…
  • WI Measles Cases Tick Upward715Newsroom.com · 32 h agoWisconsin’s measles outbreak has reached 310 cases. Health officials reported 43 new cases over the last ten days. Most cases are in southwestern Wisconsin, with Lafayette County reporting 103 confirmed or probable infections. Northern…
  • 8 more die of measles-like symptomsThe Daily Star · 18 h agoEight more patients died with measles-like symptoms across the country in the 24 hours till 8:00am yesterday. Copyright: Any unauthorized use or reproduction of The Daily Star content for commercial purposes Tarique Rahman's Japan visit…
  • Measles Update: October 23, 2026@Contagion_Live · 41 h agoThe latest CDC numbers show a 4.0% increase in measles cases from week-to-week, bringing the 2026 US total to 4588 confirmed cases. Ninety-six percent of cases are outbreak-associated. The increase is smaller than last week's 8.1% rise…
  • Kentucky’s measles outbreak nears 200 casesK105 · 32 h agoThe number of measles cases in Kentucky is nearing 200. As of Thursday, there were 194 confirmed cases of measles, according to the Kentucky Department for Public Health Measles Dashboard. One-hundred-ninety-two of the confirmed cases…
  • Measles surge pushes US case count past 4,500enmnews.com · 31 h agoFederal health officials have added 178 measles cases to the national count in the latest weekly update, a sign the outbreak-driven resurgence is still spreading across the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now lists…
  • CDC confirms third measles-related death in US for 2026Fox News · 4 days agoFox News CDC confirms third measles-related death in US for 2026 CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz discusses her department's efforts to keep measles preventable in the U.S. on 'America's Newsroom.'
  • Pennsylvania measles outbreak climbs above 1,300 cases@ahahospitals · 45 h agoThere are now 1,338 confirmed measles cases in Pennsylvania this year as the state’s ongoing outbreak continues, according to the latest data from the Pennsylvania Department of Health. There are now 1,338 confirmed measles cases in…
  • CDC confirms third measles-related death in USFox News · 4 days agoFox News CDC confirms third measles-related death in US CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz joins ‘America’s Newsroom’ to discuss the growing measles outbreak and an early flu surge across the U.S. CDC Director Dr. Erica Schwartz joins Bill…

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