Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,430high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,430.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,75098%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
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Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
The odds
2%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | $18.8M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic, Hantavirus
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Expert analysis of LLM hantavirus outbreak responses finds 11.1% potentially misleadingAn expert-rated analysis of 900 responses from ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude found that 88.9% were correct or mostly correct, while 11.1% were potentially misleading. An expert-rated analysis of 900 responses generated by three publicly… -
Plague risks in Russia and a dangerous delay on WHO pandemic agreementLetters: Responding to an editorial on a potential plague outbreak, Dr Darren Mann deplores delays to the agreement, while Kent Buse says Britain could do more Plague risks in Russia and a dangerous delay on WHO pandemic agreement… -
The MV Hondius Hantavirus Outbreak—Lessons for Pandemic PreparednessPosted by cfelixcpa | May 26, 2026 | SF STAT! | 0 | The Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the expedition vessel MV Hondius is likely to remain limited. Yet the fragmented international response reveals a deeper vulnerability in global… -
Bird flu outbreak at Utah mink farm sparks concerns about government responseState veterinarian attempted to get help from federal government but was told USDA didn’t regulate mink farms An outbreak of bird flu at a mink farm in Utah – and the response from its owner and regulators – have sparked concerns from… -
U.S. measles cases more than double what they were last year as outbreak spreadsA sign is posted outside a Pennsylvania Department of Health measles vaccination clinic located in Lancaster County in Peach Bottom, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026. Matt Rourke/AP hide caption The U.S. is grappling with its worst resurgence… -
Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable… -
Ebola, hantavirus show world's risk preparedness lagging: pandemic expertThe deadly hantavirus and Ebola outbreaks show that while the response to declared public health crises has improved, awareness of pandemic risks still lags, a leading pandemic expert warned Tuesday. Over six years after the World Health… -
Ebola: Day Pandemic Killed An Aláàfin By Festus Adedayo, PhdNigeria is treating the reported Ebola case discovered in Abuja with its usual levity. Authorities should remember that if you fail to cut the sapling of an Iroko tree while it is young and allow it to grow rotund in size, it will someday… -
Mother diagnosed with rare cancer during pandemic urges people to get checkedA mother who was diagnosed with a rare cancer during the pandemic has urged people to always get things checked if they do not feel right. Heather Hackney, 38, from York, welcomed research into leiomyosarcoma and said further study is… -
What shapes a virus's pandemic potential? SARS-CoV-2 relatives yield cluesTwo of the closest known relatives to SARS-CoV-2 -- a pair of bat coronaviruses discovered by researchers in Laos -- may transmit poorly in people despite being genetically similar to the COVID-19-causing virus, a new Yale study reveals… -
In Trump administration redirect, U.S. steers NIH sharply away from biodefense and pandemic preparednessIn response to whether the NIAID will no longer fund research related to pandemic preparedness or biodefense, the press team said, “Dr. Bhattacharya has worked hard to get biodefense out of NIH’s portfolio, as it is not within NIH’s… -
Nigeria: Diphtheria Outbreak - Jan 2023Since the beginning of 2023, 557 confirmed cases of diphtheria have been detected in Nigeria, affecting 21 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. (WHO, 27 Apr 2023) The outbreak has reached alarming proportions, with 32 states…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
4,808median
4,3005,000
Median 4,808Middle half 4,744 – 4,869
Measles cases in 2026?
6,662median
4,00011,000
Median 6,662Middle half 6,013 – 7,727
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
3.38median
020
Median 3.38
Next pandemic
22%Before 2030
- Before 203022%
- Before 202917%
- Before 202811%
Pandemic in 2026?
4%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions