Pandemic in 2026?
4%chance▲ 1
Install
Next pandemic
The odds
22%Before 2030
- Before 203022%
- Before 202917%
- Before 202811%▲ 3
How the odds have moved
Before 2030: 20% on Oct 20, 22% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 22% | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 2.5K | |
| Before 2029 | 17% | 16¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 5.5K | |
| Before 2028 | 11% | ▲ 3 | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 8.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: outbreak, pandemic
Search ›-
Plague risks in Russia and a dangerous delay on WHO pandemic agreementLetters: Responding to an editorial on a potential plague outbreak, Dr Darren Mann deplores delays to the agreement, while Kent Buse says Britain could do more Plague risks in Russia and a dangerous delay on WHO pandemic agreement… -
Bird flu outbreak at Utah mink farm sparks concerns about government responseState veterinarian attempted to get help from federal government but was told USDA didn’t regulate mink farms An outbreak of bird flu at a mink farm in Utah – and the response from its owner and regulators – have sparked concerns from… -
U.S. measles cases more than double what they were last year as outbreak spreadsA sign is posted outside a Pennsylvania Department of Health measles vaccination clinic located in Lancaster County in Peach Bottom, Pa., Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026. Matt Rourke/AP hide caption The U.S. is grappling with its worst resurgence… -
Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable… -
The MV Hondius Hantavirus Outbreak—Lessons for Pandemic PreparednessPosted by cfelixcpa | May 26, 2026 | SF STAT! | 0 | The Andes hantavirus outbreak aboard the expedition vessel MV Hondius is likely to remain limited. Yet the fragmented international response reveals a deeper vulnerability in global… -
Ebola: Day Pandemic Killed An Aláàfin By Festus Adedayo, PhdNigeria is treating the reported Ebola case discovered in Abuja with its usual levity. Authorities should remember that if you fail to cut the sapling of an Iroko tree while it is young and allow it to grow rotund in size, it will someday… -
What shapes a virus's pandemic potential? SARS-CoV-2 relatives yield cluesTwo of the closest known relatives to SARS-CoV-2 -- a pair of bat coronaviruses discovered by researchers in Laos -- may transmit poorly in people despite being genetically similar to the COVID-19-causing virus, a new Yale study reveals… -
Nigeria: Diphtheria Outbreak - Jan 2023Since the beginning of 2023, 557 confirmed cases of diphtheria have been detected in Nigeria, affecting 21 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. (WHO, 27 Apr 2023) The outbreak has reached alarming proportions, with 32 states… -
Tomori urges investment in pandemic preparedness to avoid trillion-dollar lossesProf. Oyewale Tomori, a renowned virologist, has urged African governments to invest consistently in pandemic preparedness to avert the enormous human and economic losses associated with major disease outbreaks. Tomori made the call in a… -
Salmonella Outbreak Hits Costa Rica HospitalCOSTA RICA · PUBLIC HEALTH · TRAVEL SAFETY Costa Rica’s Ministry of Health is investigating 66 suspected salmonella cases among workers at Hospital CIMA in Escazú, and the US Embassy issued a health alert on Friday, 23 October, advising… -
CDC sends disease detective to Pennsylvania to investigate measles outbreakCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CDC sends… -
‘Godfather of the Pandemic:’ New book makes the case for prosecuting Anthony Fauciby WorldTribune Staff, October 24, 2026 — Real World News In his new book, “Why Fauci MUST Rot in Prison,” Senior White House adviser Peter Navarro is calling for Dr. Anthony Fauci to face criminal prosecution. Calling Fauci the “Godfather…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,721high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,721.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,75098%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
4,811median
4,3005,000
Median 4,811Middle half 4,748 – 4,866
Plague pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Measles cases in 2026?
6,778median
4,00011,000
Median 6,778Middle half 6,160 – 7,842
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions